Collaborating to Conquer Cancer; June 1 - 5, McCormick Place, Chicago

http://chicago2012.asco.org/ 

Full-text versions of Plenary, Late-Breaking, and Clinical Review Abstracts will be publically released on the day of their presentation at the Meeting.

POTC is Analyzing Jim Chanos's Red Bet on Coinstar Inc. (CSTR)

With our trusted options trading microscopes plugged in at an undisclosed location for reasons of Security, our team is studying Jim Chanos's bearish bet on CSTR. 

 A special inter-Q Trade Alert on CSTR will be sent on Wednesday, June 6th. at  7 PM ET. 


If you are not a subscriber but want to receive this educational write-up, please use Paypal in the right margin.

Facebook IPO Could be Delayed..

Our sources tell us that 'deteriorating market conditions' could force  lead underwriter Morgan Stanley to delay the Facebook IPO. Morgan Stanley's brass is 'flustered' with the  equity selloff today; nearly 12 consecutive days of losses. Rumors are that if the S&P breaks below 1,300 by tomorrow (Friday) morning, Facebook's IPO will be shelved until more favorable market conditions.

Thanks, POTC-
http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com

J.C. Penney (JCP) Volatility Trade; Pedestrian Crossing Alert..

~A Happy Mother's Day to All; Nobody Can Ever Replace Our Moms~

Dalio, Icahn, and Simons Beat Out All Hedge Fund Moneymakers in 2011

The global economy may still be in recovery mode, but the hedge fund industry’s top 25 managers are doing just fine. They took home a combined $14.4 billion in 2011, according to AR magazine’s annual Rich List survey of the world’s top-earning hedge fund managers. The average pay for the top 25 was $576 million, according to the ranking, which appears in the April issue of AR.

.

The richest managers were not immune to market volatility, however. Last year’s total

compensation for the 25 top earners fell nearly 35 percent from more than $22 billion in 2010, and disappointing hedge fund performance played a large role in the steep decline.
.

The HedgeFund Intelligence Global Composite Index lost 2.01 percent last year.

“Hedge fund managers are paid high fees to deliver positive absolute returns, regardless

of the direction of the markets,” says Michael Peltz, editor of both AR and Institutionalmagazines. “In 2011, the majority of managers failed to do that.”

.

Several managers bucked that trend, led by Raymond Dalio, the founder of Westport,

Connecticut–based Bridgewater Associates. Dalio is the top hedge fund moneymaker for

2011, with earnings of nearly $4 billion. Bridgewater is now the largest hedge fund firm

in the world, with $70 billion in hedge fund assets and $120 billion in total assets under

management.

.

Corporate-raider-turned-activist-investor Carl Icahn takes second place, with a $2.5

billion payday in 2011. Though he returned capital to outside investors in the first half of

2011, his full-year gains of 34.5 percent before fees enabled him to qualify for this year’s

list.

.

Renaissance Technologies Corp. founder James Simons, No. 3 on the list, also benefited

from strong performance, ending the year with a $2.1 billion paycheck. Though Simons

is retired from the East Setauket, New York firm, he still has a large percentage of his

personal capital invested in Renaissance’s hedge funds, which produced big gains last

year.

.

The top five moneymakers for 2011 were:

1. Raymond Dalio (Bridgewater Associates) $3.9 billion

2. Carl Icahn (Icahn Capital Management) $2.5 billion

3. James Simons (Renaissance Technologies Corp.) $2.1 billion

4. Kenneth Griffin (Citadel) $700 million

5. Steven Cohen (SAC Capital Advisors) $585 million

.

Several managers turned in tepid performances in 2011, but that didn’t stop them from

qualifying for this year’s Rich List. No fewer than 11 managers made the list despite

posting only single-digit gains in their funds. This is partly because these managers have

much of their personal wealth tied up in their funds, but also because their firms’ assets

have grown so large that income generated from management fees — typically 1 to 2

percent of a firm’s assets — became a huge profit center.

.

The tough markets in 2011 led to a major shakeup of the Rich List this year. The majority

of last year’s winners — some 15 managers — fell off the list. The most high profile of

these is Paulson & Co. founder John Paulson, who failed to make the Rich List for the

first time since 2007 after some of his firm’s hedge funds generated losses of between 30

and 50 percent.

.

There is no shortage of fresh faces on this year’s Rich List. Eight managers on the list are

newcomers, demonstrating that even in challenging markets it’s still possible to generate

outsize returns. They include Bridgewater co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and

Robert Prince, and Paul Singer of Elliott Management Corp.

.

This year marks the 11th year of the Rich List ranking, which started in the pages of

Institutional Investor magazine, before migrating to AR. To be included on this year’s manager had to earn $100 million, the lowest number in four years. The full list of the 25 top hedge fund moneymakers 2011 appears in the April issue of AR and can be found on the AR website, http://www.absolutereturn-alpha.com/.

'I am POTC-'

Bulls Bloodied; Wealth Leveling Cycle from West to East Continues; Fiscal, Monetary, Overreaching Govt Policies Offer No Help

Thanks to all our subscribers. We had an educational and successful Quarter as we were net bearish.

Our two S&P Directional Alerts warned subscribers at 1,412 and at 1,420 that 'We Did Not Feel Comfortable Above 1,400'; that turned out to be prophetic and profitable for many. 

We sent out long-term write-ups on AeroVironment (AVAV) and Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and a follow-up on AVAV is scheduled for Sunday, May 13.

Our team will continue to work extreme hours and send  educational, dynamic, and sometimes profitable ideas. 

Yet we stress that our business was designed for educational purposes; POTC is neither a registered Investment Advisor or Broker Dealer as outlined in the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. 

Every educational Trade Alert reminds that trading options and futures is extremely risky and large losses should be expected, a Govt Options and Futures disclaimer is always attached.  

We are a group of experienced traders with interesting life experiences and educational backgrounds that love digging for off-the-beaten path information and then teaching aggressive trading strategies. 

Our DNA is to Stand Up for Liberty; politics played a key role in starting the blog in early 2008 and now everyone has witnessed the maddening global Govt overreach into our lives. You can expect our Political Correspondent, Capitalist Pig Bob, to always express his heartfelt and Independent opinions. The rest of our team agrees with a majority (89%+) of what the Pig writes.

Our 11 Commandments were designed and continue to be refined to increase reward, decrease risk while employing very aggressive strategies.

We do no multi-legged trades and rarely follow the direction of the masses, for too long at least. 

We consider most Wall Street analysts no different than the naive African Wildebeest;  we only follow wise analysts that are free thinkers and have the ability to issue Sell recommendations. The 'Yes men and women' that only recommend Buy can be compared to Street prostitutes; and many Wall Street firms are equivalent to legal Pimps.  

We are contrarians and cynics by nature. Some corp executives rape shareholder wealth instead of increase it, STEC and LIOX are just two examples yet there are fiscally retarded men that continue to Buy and Hold such cos.

Most on the POTC team would prefer spending a day walking, fishing, and swimming some crystal clear and 'clean' river than driving an expensive Italian sports car down Santa Monica Blvd. We believe in fiscal Liberty for All, financial greed is not a bad thing if you use it to help family, friends, and strangers. And we do respect the choice of Hindu Sadhus as well.

Subscribers received bearish information on: AAPL, BIDU, DECK, PCLN, TPX, and WTW in the last several days - weeks, and we know that many are profiting.

If you are not a subscriber but appreciate Independent research with a human touch that  marries charts, fundamentals, conference calls, politics, and several other factors most analysts do not handicap, you should enjoy your subscription to Psychology of the Call.

If you are considering a subscription and have any questions, please send them to: Psychologyofthecall@gmail.com

Otherwise please use Paypal in the right margin.

Adam, Des, Frank, Lisa, and Dallas Pig Bob are your POTC team.

"I am POTC-"

Option Trade Alert (TA) for LinkedIn (LNKD) Closed for Purchase

We sent out a fairly in-depth study/report on LNKD ahead of today's Q1, 2012 earnings release  after market close.  

All subscribers will receive this  LNKD TA on Thursday at 10 AM ET.

Since we've had success with DECK puts last week (460% - 560%), and NUAN calls (100%), and for all that booked profits early in BWLD and SBUX, we chose to trade  LNKD ahead of numbers.

LNKD has been on POTC's radar since 2011. We are confident that we have a good grip on which way mass psychology will swing price post report.

If you are not a subscriber but are interested in this write-up, please buy a subscription in the right margin for either a Quarter or Year. If you have any questions, please email them to: Psychologyofthecall@gmail.com


We thank all our loyal readers and subscribers for 4+ years of successful blogging,
POTC-

AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV) Trade Alert (TA) Coming Sunday, April 29

All subscribers will receive our trading insights on AVAV this Sunday night at 9pm ET.


Many subscribers have recently enjoyed success with NUAN (100%+) and DECK (400%+) as shares are down 18% and we suggested the $65 May puts. Congratulations to all who are about to book some slinging profits. 


If you are not a subscriber but want to receive our TA on AVAV, please purchase a Quarterly or Yearly subscription in the right margin. 


Thank You.  

Baidu (BIDU) Closed from Purchase, Thank you..

BIDU will release Q1, 2012 earnings after close on Tuesday, April 24. Every subscriber will receive our strategy for trading the post earnings reaction. This PETA will be sent on Tuesday  night to review in order to trade on Wednesday morning. 

If you are not a subscriber, please buy a subscription through Paypal in the right margin; few work harder or smarter than the Psychology of the Call team (POTC). 

ISRG closed for purchase

All subscribers received this ISRG Trade Alert. If you are not a subscriber and would like to receive the next trade analysis, please use the PayPal menu and subscribe for the next Quarter. 

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). Post Earnings Trade Alert (PETA) this Tuesday

ISRG will release Q1, 2012 earnings after close on Tuesday, April, 17. Every  subscriber will receive a write-up that spells out our best strategy to advantage  the post earnings reaction. The PETA will be sent Tuesday night to review in order to trade on Wednesday morning.

If you are not a subscriber, please buy a subscription through Paypal in the right margin; nobody works harder or smarter than the Psychology of the Call team (POTC).

Our S&P Directional Alerts have been excellent in calling market swings since 2010. We just warned  subscribers from S&P 1,412 - 1,420 that we were bearish and suggested they raise cash or go short through SPY ETF options or S&P futures (ES).

Thank You,
Adam, Frank, Des, Lisa, and Capitalist Pig Bob.

' I am POTC- '

Google Inc. (GOOG) Trade Alert (TA) Coming Thursday at 10 AM ET

We are studying GOOG ahead of earnings and all subscribers will receive this TA on Thursday morning. GOOG will report Q1, 2012 earnings after close on Thursday.

If you are not a subscriber and want to receive this TA, please use Paypal in the right margin.

A Happy & Hopeful April to All,
POTC-

Flotek Industries (FTK) Trade Alert Closed from Purchase

Flotek Industries (FTK) released earnings on March 7. We sent a delayed Post Earnings Trade Alert (d-PETA) on Flotek on Sunday night, April 8. If you would like to purchase the write-up, use the PayPal menu in the right margin.

Stock Option Focus List for Fiscal Q1, 2012 Earnings:

Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)

CF Industries (CF)
Chipotle (CMG)
Deutsche Bank (DB)
F5 Networks (FFIV)
Flotek (FTK)
Google (GOOG)
Infosys Limited (INFY)
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
The Walt Disney Company (DIS).
.
Last Q 1 of the 4 Post Earnings Trade Alerts (PETA)  suggested AAPL April $510 calls. POTC subscribers who traded AAPL are very happy.

We look forward to another Educational Q.

If you are not a subscriber, please use Paypal in the right margin and hop on board.
.
Thank You,
The entire Psychology of the Call team (POTC).

Tom Hanks, You are Shameful for Narrating Obama's Re-election Video:

Dear Tom,

You failed to mention that in Obama's three years in office:
1.) The U.S. National Debt has gone up by $5 trillion; largest $ and % increase in the history of the Presidency; click here for the facts.
2.) U.S. credit rating was downgraded by S&P from AAA to AA- for the first time since keeping score, 1917. Perhaps you missed this Huffington Post piece?, click here.  
3.) For the first time in U.S. history, by year-end 2012, the dollar amount of U.S. National Debt ($15.5T) will surpass the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), click here.
4) Gas prices at the pump have more than doubled, they were $1.87/gallon in late Nov, '08, click here. 
5.) Tens of thousands of jobs have been stymied as Obama's Anti-Secretary of Energy Chu admitted that this Administration's goal is higher gas prices so consumers are  forced to go green. And Chu does not own a car, click here.
Tom, do you really believe the Govt knows better than the American risk-taker/entrepreneur?
6.) A partisan and unconstitutional Health Care bill was forced through against the will of 60%+ of Americans. Here's what professor Randy Barnett thinks of the Obamacare insurance 'mandate': 'The Supreme Court has never upheld a 'tax' penalizing private citizens who refuse to enter into a contract with a private company'.
7.) U.S. National Unemployment rate rose by 2+ to 10.2% after the partisan February, '09, $787 billion stimulus;  the rate has never been above 8% for this long since WWII, click here. 

Thomas 'Jeffrey' Hanks, you just won the Oscar for:
'Most Ignorant Hollywood Actor of March, 2012' 

At 14m:33s into the video you say: "They changed the way the world sees us (click here)". That sentence was either your finest comedic moment or the greatest lie you've ever told. This presidential bow-down to Saudi King Abdullah did nothing for respect or $4/gallon gas:

Your 17-minute Obama re-election video never addressed the National Debt, Anti-Secretary of Energy Steven Chu, or the manufacturing and Unemployment crisis that have been exacerbated by Big Govt policies. The American risk-taker  is confused as he stares into burdensome Health Care regulations ahead, and then the partisan Dodd-Frank bill never mentioned Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, 'butt' I did notice Frank's mug when you addressed 'Don't Ask Don't Tell', how ironic.

Last but certainly not least, click here to hear Professor Richard Epstein's very personal thoughts on Obama.

No Thanks Hanks,
Capitalist Pig Bob,

 

' I am POTC- '

Imagine if Congress ordered the majority of American households without a firearm to buy a handgun from a private company, and punished their failure to do so with an escalating monetary fine, which it labeled a “tax.” Would the supporters of the health insurance mandate feel the same about the constitutionality of such a measure?
Professor Randy Barnett

When the U.S. Dollar Was Backed by More than 'Full-Faith':

Anti-Secretary of Energy Steven Chu is a Shameful Chinese-American

Does it make any sense to dislodge so many men and women employed in the Energy sector with anti fossil fuel policies? Credit to Newt Gingrich for the label 'Anti-Secretary of Energy'.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-pAvg6McPQ&feature=related

Every American citizen should know about the twisted ideology of this well-educated man. Just proves that your level of education or even heritage means zero when it comes to common sense. Shame on Chu and it's a sad irony for all his ancestors who were controlled, brutalized, and maimed by centralized Govt planning men of Chu's ilk.

Thanks for educating your friends ahead of the U.S. Presidential November 6, 2012 election,

Capitalist Pig Bob : /
http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com/

Displacement of Labor from West to East, Core Principles of American Capitalism Trapped Under Ice...

The buoyancy of American Capitalism is in serious Jeopardy as a troubling paradigm shift in the cost of labor is forcing manufacturing/labor/jobs to exit East, and there's little anyone can do to stop it. 

The decision of U.S. corporations like Apple to manufacture their gadgets in Asia, in addition to an over-regulated big Govt landscape, signals that great socioeconomic pain is still ahead but especially for blue-collar Joes. 

Labor Displacement from West to East is similar to the physics that the brilliant Greek mathematician Archimedes presented 2,300 years ago, but instead of water being displaced we're witnessing jobs flowing out and the potential to extinct the American middle-class.   
.

U.S. CFOs are saying 'No' to the U.S. and investing aggressively in less regulated and lower cost labor markets in the Far East. Capitalism has never been under such pressure as the U.S. manufacturing sector has been decimated, this must be our wake-up call to take bolder and necessary political corrective actions. 

.
Many economists are miffed as they debate the past and future merits of Capitalism. I feel the debate is wrongly focused on healing today's trough which is much deeper as a result of too many regulations, bailouts, stimulus packages, and central bankers' insistence that a ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) is the answer. 

.
Most risk-takers have lost trust in this plastic Capitalistic model the West offers. They are investing in the more friendly pastures of China, India, and Thailand. Banking, credit, and real estate psychology is fractured as the U.S. government refuses to get out of the way and allow the necessary extremes of Capitalism to cycle: rewarding risk-takers that make good business decisions and never bailing out bad risk-takers but allowing them to use the Judicial system and file for bankruptcy. Bankruptcy must remain a free-market choice, yet lately the U.S. has embraced big Govt bailouts which will cripple the private-sector.   
.    

U.S. and European austerity ahead is bound to hurt China's and India's GDPs. But since their economies are chugging along at 8% - 10% clips with the average Chinese laborer earning $2.00/hour vs U.S. $20.00/hour, the global Employment situation is in the midst of very powerful and secular change, this is definitely not a temporary phenomenon in my opinion.  

.
The macroeconomic riddle of the 21st Century is whether Western austerity will cause a Polish Solidarity type of Labor Uprising in China and throughout Asia, this would no doubt be a positive for the U.S. manufacturing sector. 

The Capitalistic paradox is that China has witnessed our failed Union labor system both in the public and private sectors, as well as the entitlement failures of Social Security and Medicare and now able to take big Advantage regarding political policy measures. 
.

Will supporters of a global 'fair free-market' agree to impose tariffs and shrink Govt to stop this dislocation of jobs and wealth from West to East, though that would be against the core principle of free-markets times are so desperate that I expect many unorthodox possibilities.
.

Some American economists believe that China's lack of respect of foreign patents and intellectual property rights has crossed the fair free-market line of competition and drastic political actions must be taken. Then layer the near slave wage the average Chinese laborer makes along with less than human working and living conditions, this leaves the U.S. with a crystal clear labor disadvantage. Yet in its truest sense, the Eastern model is mimicking the early form of Western Capitalism, no? The paradoxes continue~      

.
Imposing tariffs on some Chinese goods may cause their authorities to move more quickly and loosen their dollar pegged currency that occurred under President Bill Clinton (former Arkansas Governor and 'friend' of Walmart pioneer, non-believer in Unions and huge buyer of Chinese goods early, Sam Walton). A Capitalist in the truest sense was Walmart's Sam Walton, no arguments from me.

.
Admittedly, the U.S. is stuck inside an extremely complicated problem. And wasn't it inevitable for men, women, and children from Far East emerging economies, *4+ billion hard working and educated, to eventually want/desire 'stuff'; that John Wayne form of Western Capitalism, Pilgrim. 
.

Yet many know that some factories in the East are engaging in unfair practices, like not paying the average laborer a decent enough wage to live on and not respecting human standards for daily work hours, breaks, etc. If it sounds like I am for Union shops and against Right to Work states you are dead wrong. I'm actually for abolishing the minimum wage, welfare, and other work programs before imposing tariffs on any country, though I realize this is merely wishful thinking.    

.
I have little doubt why Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's 1st trip abroad was to China while Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner addressed the undervalued currency and hinted at manipulation in early '09. click for Youtube link-> Hillary must understand the vicious that has dunked the West since sat on Walmart's Board of Directors. Yet she has accomplished nothing to slow this ugly geocorporate wealth and labor displacement.  

.
Just like separation of Church from State, there should be an Amendment to the Constitution for the separation of ex-Corporate CEOs or ex-Corporate Board members from Government, and vice verse. This would ensure that people like Hank Paulson, Jon Corzine, and Hilary Clinton never had the power to affect the average Joe American. 

.
And instead of bogus regulations like Sarbanes Oxley and now D0dd-Frank, I propose corporal punishment. If Jon Corzine was forced to ponder a caning stick or waterboard he would either never lose that $1.2 billion or quickly divulge what happened to all that money.   

.
Can the U.S.'s over-regulated economy with its expensive labour force compete effectively against $2.00/hour Chinese wages or will we continue to outsource our middle-class?

.
It will be very difficult for a Western 'free-market' economy to ever grow at 3%+ from this day forward. To better granualize my feelings:

'The United States' manufacturing wage compared to China's is like a 50 lb. child and a 230 lb. adult trying to find balance on a seesaw, you decide who has the leverage.'  
.

Imposing more tariffs on the East would no doubt throw us into a prolonged recession and perhaps depression, but in conjunction with shrinking the Govt could place ourselves back on more solid free-market track. The West should act now as cos like Apple leave as they find the approximate $720.00 per week wage gap (40 hours X $18.00) a no-brainer. 

.
The combined European Union and U.S. GDP is *420% greater than China's, and here's where the West still has leverage. It is sad that trade with the East must be leveled through unorthodox measures like tariffs but the free-market thermometer must be calibrated sooner than later. 

.
It's sad to admit but most Asian nations have a friendlier regulatory environment for business, so is it right to punish a U.S. corporation if they move overseas in order to cut costs and fatten-up their bottom-line (net income) and improve Shareholder wealth?  The definition of Capitalism is changing directly because of the huge Cost of Labor Gap -from West to East - yet the pro- Union Yanks have no answers as they Wallow in a World of Fantasy.  
. 

Pig thanks to all my friends and readers,  
Psychology of the Call's Capitalist Pig Bob


*Largest Continents in Population

1. Asia - 4,055,000,000 (Over 4 billion)
2. Africa - 1,108,500,000 (Over 1 billion)
3. Europe - 729,871,042 (including all of Russia)
4. North America - 522,807,432
5. South America - 379,919,602
6. Australia - 20,434,176
7. Antarctica - No permanent residents but up to 4,000 researchers and personnel in the summer and 1,000 in the winter.

	Country	*GDP
	World	$62,911,253
1	European Union	$16,242,256
2	United States	$14,526,550
3	China	$5,878,257

Capitalist Pig Bob, in the flesh. 

Psychology of the Call team (POTC) on Simple Technical Analysis:

 Understanding the trading concept of 'Moving averages' is one of the most important elements of trading that the Psychology of the Call team (POTC) uses. The moving average graphically shows the average price of an investment vehicle: stock, option, or bond over a specific period of time.


There are two types of moving averages:
1.) Simple Moving Average (SMA), and;
2.) Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The difference between them is that EMA employs mathematical factors that reduce lag time versus the SMA; we view EMA as more 'up to date.' 


POTC uses moving averages to smooth (better see) shorter-term price fluctuation within the longer-term trend. This sometimes helps us peg the direction of the longer-term trend before the average fundamental trading eye notices anything different. 


Moving averages are one of the oldest analytical tools. Though moving averages do not predict coming trend reversals, they do point to changes in a particular trend. And because of the visible smoothing factor, moving averages alert us to 'changes in trend.' Change is a the most important element in human behavior and thus POTC uses moving averages.


Moving Averages are widely used in complex quantitative trading systems. Over the last several decades technicians have built the number of technical indicators based on the moving averages. One such example is the Standard Deviation indicator which helps us define price volatility, MACD helps us identify trend direction and or to smooth other technicals like volume. 


 MACD and MACD Histograms are one of the most popular technical calculations that branch out of the Moving Averages. In technical analysis MACDs are considered momentum indicators and we use them to identify the relation between fast (smaller bars) and slow (bigger bars) moving averages. This is a simple technical indicator that calculates the difference between two exponential moving averages by horizontally swaying/oscillating around a zero/center line. 


PPO (Percentage Price Oscillator) is another technical indicator similar to MACD. Percentage Price Oscillator are calculated as ration between two moving averages (fast and slow). It is analyzed and used in the same way MACD is used with the difference that it oscillates around '1' while MACD around '0'. MACD and PPO can both reveal the direction of the shorter term trend (fast MA) in relation to the longer term trend (slow MA). They are used to generate trading signals from divergence, moving average crossovers and centerline crossovers.


Incorporating these technical arrows into your trading quiver is vital for survival in our opinion. Technical analysis is just one tool that POTC uses when suggesting aggressive option trades to our subscribers. 


Q2 will Kick-Off soon, we are humbled and excited to have you, or Welcome you on board as a new subscriber; please subscribe through Paypal in the right margin. 


Thank You, POTC-

~Rest in Peace Andrew Breitbart; Your Conservatism Will be Missed~

MAKO Surgical Trade Alert (TA) Coming Tuesday, March 6 at 10 AM ET:

Our 1st ahead of earnings Intra-Q bonus TA as a Thank You to all Yearly subscribers. 

Excited,

POTC-