Sunday, April 13, 2014

Heed the 4 Consecutive Blood Moons Ahead; Wars and Global Stock Market Prices are in Focus

Hello to All from Capitalist Piglet $ally (CP$),  

The lore is that a full moon causes more heart attacks, births, and irrational behavior. If the U.S. S/P breaches 1,800 I do not think it'll be a coincidence since we're on the cusp of experiencing a total lunar eclipse also called a 'blood moon'. When 4 blood moons occur in a row NASA refers to this event as a Tetrad. This Tuesday, April 15th at 2 am ET will mark the start of the 1st blood moon aka lunar cycle Tetrad. Since financial markets have a history of short-term irrational valuation with no warning, I will be overweight cash for the next 2-years and 5-months in my traditional accounts. I'm not 20-years old anymore and consider myself a shrewd female Capitalist Piglet who knows that Tetrads have had negative effects on global stock markets.

A total lunar eclipse occurs when the Earth, Sun and Moon all line up and the Earth blocks all direct sunlight that normally reflects from the moon. Indirect sunlight still reaches the moon and as it passes through our atmosphere, most of the blue light is filtered out, allowing for the deep red and orange phenomenon.
During the time of a total eclipse the moon becomes reddish, with the color dependent on how much dust and clouds are in the atmosphere, thus the name 'blood moon'. Here's NASA's video explaining the upcoming Tetrad.
The lunar cycle ahead is rare since only 55 Tetrads have occurred since 1 AD, so 2,013 years.   
I think it would be smart for Buy and Hold investors to be overweight cash in their traditional cash accounts for longer than they are accustomed to. 

Since 'History Repeats Itself' and Tetrads have had fallouts, but especially for Israel and Jews, with the ongoing Iranian nuclear program my short and long-term portfolios will be hedged just in case a War erupts through September 28, 2016.

The exact dates of the 4 blood moons:
  1. April 15, 2014 (this upcoming Tuesday beginning at 2am ET).
  2. October 8, 2014.
  3. April 4, 2015.
  4. September 28, 2015.

In the last 500 years there were Tetrads that fell on Jewish feast days:

  • Tetrad in 1493 & 1494: 1492 was the same year that the Jews were expelled from Spain and Columbus discovered America, which is home today for more than 5 million Jews outside of Israel. 
  • Tetrad in 1949 & 1950: The first Arab – Israeli War for Independence; Israel became a nation again for the first time in 2,000 years.
  • Tetrad in 1967 & 1968: Jews reclaimed Jerusalem in 'The 6-day War' which was divided under Israeli and Jordanian rule since 1949.
If history repeats and an overdue event unfolds in the Middle East in the next couple of years, money managers and individual investors who remain more hedged through September 28, 2016 could eventually Outperform their peers, and my time spent researching and writing this piece will be well worth it!

There will be no more blood moons falling on Jewish feast days for 100-years. Every time this lunar cycle struck on Jewish feast days in the past, there was a significant event for Israel within a year of the first or last blood moon of the Tetrad.

My plan is to be more hedged by Monday's close (tomorrow), even though we've already witnessed the S/P pull back over 4% just in the last few weeks. As of last Friday, the S&P 500 (below), DJIA, and Nasdaq, are ALL trend bearish. Could the historical and statistical significance of the 1st blood moon already be in play?

stock chart
Most investors understand that the Federal Reserve Bank's Quantitative Easing (QE) measures have had a positive impact on stock prices. The new Fed chairman, Janet Yellen, has stated that her goal is to end the QE bond buying program by October, 2014

The 2nd blood moon of 2014 will occur just a couple weeks before that QE end date, and by watching CNBC a lot, I know most of Wall Street is very concerned. If Yellen's Fed does hold to that October date and global stock markets fall more than 10%, the pullback will likely be blamed on the Fed but I think it will be more of a negative synergy associated with that September 28, 2014 blood moon.
Dating back to ancient times, there's evidence that lunar phases affect human behavior; just ask an Emergency Room Physician or Police Officer about their experiences during simple full moon. Though rare, there are portfolio managers that reallocate their portfolios based on lunar cycles. If this piece is 'over the top' for your investment taste, I don't see any harm in taking a cautious portfolio approach over the next couple of years.

Some proteges of George Soros and the late John Templeton theorize that there is a correlation between lunar cycles and stock prices.

In 2010 the technical analysis team of Pelc and Bondar from the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) concluded that 'new moon' and 'full moon' cycles have had large statistical impacts on stocks after studying 6 global indices.

This unorthodox yet statistically proven market timing theory suggests Buying stocks ahead of a new moon and Selling ahead of a full moon.

Lunar cycles influence our moods and a full moon increases our tendency to feel depressed and pessimistic.  Science shows that our levels of serotonin rise and fall as the moon cycles, causing mood swings; similar to the effect of a sunny versus cloudy day, or the Winter versus Spring season.

Below is a good image of a blood moon:
 This is what a total eclipse looks like.  This is the total eclipse of October 27, 2004 via Fred Espenak of NASA, otherwise known as Mr. Eclipse.   Visit Fred's page here.

This is what a total eclipse looks like. This is the total eclipse of October 27, 2004 via Fred Espenak of NASA.

Ironically, the 4 total eclipses/blood moons ahead will all coincide with Jewish feast days, 2 in the Spring will mark 'Passover' and the 2 in Autumn 'The Feast of Tabernacles'.  

In 2008, Mark Biltz of Tacoma, WA studied NASA eclipse tables, and from a statistical standpoint, many of the ones that have come on Jewish holy days signaled negative events for Israel. Only 7 Tetrads came on important Jewish days in over 2,000 years and just 3 in the last 500-years.

POTC's 2nd Commandment suggests traditional accounts hold a 20% cash to take advantage of special oversold situations with stalwart stocks like that British Petroleum (BP) a few years ago because of that Gulf of Mexico oil spill, but I will ratchet that 20% to 40% until this Tetrad cycle blows over on September 28, 2016.

I will prod CPB to stay up past midnight with me on Monday to observe a developing and potentially market moving event. I hope many POTC partners follow my lead.

For those interested in more information, NASA's Astronomer Mitzi Adams and Astrophysicist Alphonse Sterling will start taking questions via a live web chat beginning at 1 a.m. EDT, April 15th.

And for those of you who don't believe this Tetrad will have negative consequences on your money, at least you have an opportunity to witness a breathtakingly colorful moon - and if for nothing else - its romantic value! I hope I didn't lose Capitalist Pig Bob's attention with my lunar investment theory, because even if it ends up being wrong he better not start snoring before 2am ET and prove that he also dismissed the other value a blood moon offers!

Thanks to POTC for publishing this piece, and I wish fat PEETA profits to all Partners in this 2Q, 2014, 
~ Capitalist Piglet $ally ~


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