Monday, August 30, 2010

U.S. Econonic Calendar, Estimates, and Results ...

Tuesday, August 31 at 9:00 ET S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index for June, estimates are for 3.0% - 3.1% - Previous /July of 2009 was 4.61% 
Actual: *DJ S&P Case-Shiller 2Q US Natl Home Price Index +4.4% QQ
Actual: *DJ S&P Case-Shiller 2Q US Natl Home Price Index +3.6% YY
Tuesday, August 31 at 9:45 ET Chicago PMI for August, estimate are for 57.0 - 58.0 - Previous/July was 62.3
Actual: *DJ The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its business barometer fell to 56.7 in August, from 62.3 in July.
Tuesday, August 31 at 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence for August, estimates are for 49.5 - 50.0 - Previous/July was 50.40
Actual: *DJ US Conference Bd Aug Consumer Confidence 53.5 Vs Jul 51.0

Tuesday, August 31 at 2:00 ET: Minutes of FOMC Meeting from 8/10 will be released.
More of the same; confusion and uncertainty about the future weighs. Monetary policy has been exhausted in POTC's opinion. Quantitative easing without fiscal relief makes little sense to us. We believe Bernanke and his FOMC team must be more vocal and openly judge Obama's economic team as out of touch with reality. POTC believes the psychology of the consumer and businessman is unstable due to  current anti free-market policies.

Wednesday, September 1 at 8:15 ET: ADP Employment Change for August, estimates are for 0K - 13K private sector jobs created, Previous/July was 42K on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Actual: NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Private businesses laid off workers in August as only large companies hired last month, according to data released Wednesday.
Private-sector jobs in the U.S. fell by 10,000 last month, according to a national employment report published by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers.
Wednesday, September 1 at 10:00 ET: Construction Spending for July, estimates are for (-0.5% -0.7%) - Previous/June was +0.1%
Actual: *DJ US Construction Spending -1.0% In Jul; Consensus -0.5% - Worse, yet expected.

Wednesday, September 1 at 10:00 ET: ISM Index for August,  estimates are for 52.9 - 53.0 - Previous/July was 55.5
Actual: *DJ US ISM Aug Manufacturing PMI 56.3 Vs Jul 55.5 - VERY IMPRESSIVE for consumer psychology in our opinion.
Caveat: ISM is a highly overrated index. It is only a survey of purchasing managers. It is a diffusion index, it reflects the number of people saying conditions are better compared to the number saying conditions are worse. It does not weight for size of the firm, or for the degree of better/worse. It can therefore underestimate conditions if there is a great deal of strength in a few firms. The data have thus not been either a good forecasting tool or a good read on current conditions during this business cycle. It must be recognized that the index is not hard data of any kind, but simply a survey that provides broad indications of trends.

Wednesday, September 1 at 10:30 ET Crude Inventories for 8/28,  no estimates available - Previous for week ending 8/21 was a build of 4.11M barrels.
Actual: *DJ DOE: US Crude Oil Stocks 3.4M Bbl build At 361.707M Bbl

Thursday, September 2 at 8:30 ET: Initial Claims for 8/28, estimates are for 475K - Previous week ending claims were 473K.
Actual: *DJ US Jobless Claims -6K To 472K In Aug 28 Wk; Survey -3K - Slight improvement, we're not impressed.

Thursday, September 2 at 8:30 ET: Productivity-Revision for Q2, estimates are for (-1.4% -1.7%) - Previous was (-0.9%).
Actual: *DJ US 2Q Non-Farm Productivity Revised -1.8%, Prelim -0.9%

Thursday, September 2 1at 10:00 ET: Factory Orders for July, estimates are for 0.1% - 0.3% - Previous/June was 1.2%
Actual: *DJ US Factory Orders +0.1% In Jul; Consensus +0.2%

Thursday, September 2 at 10:00 ET: Pending Home Sales for July, estimates are for (-0.0% -1.0%) - Previous/June was (-2.6%).
Actual: *DJ US Pending Home Sales Index +5.2% To 79.4 In Jul - NAR - First rise in 3 months.

Friday, September 3 at 8:30 ET: Nonfarm Payrolls for August, estimates are for (-106K -120K) - Previous/July was (-131K).
Actual: =DJ DATA SNAP: US Aug Nonfarm Payrolls -54K; Jobless Rate 9.6%

Friday, September 3 at 8:30 ET: National U.S. Unemployment Rate for August, estimates are for 9.6% - Previous/July was 9.5%
Actual: 9.6%
Friday, September 3 at 10:00 ET: ISM Services for August, estimates are for 51.0 - 53.0 - Previous/July was 54.3
Actual: *DJ US ISM Aug Non-Mfg Employment Index 48.2 Vs Jul 50.9 - Very Negative.

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