Friday, September 18, 2009

Thursday's Complex Market Psychology; President Abraham Lincoln and the September Witch...


Jobs and building permits were a yawn, yet both improved to still very anemic levels, we urge caution. Semantics cause all sorts of openings for cable's talking heads, especially related to adjectives used in front of complex economic terms like Employment. Thus the dirty launderers will spin today's cycle of bad econ news as though the recession is ending or even over, not us. Here's the ugly visual truth about housing starts/building permits:


http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/starts.htm

Please recall when many cable heads began calling for the bottom in stocks, that irresponsible behavior lasted 6 months, and now it has completely faded. The Psychology of the Call team (POTC) is of the opinion the market was so viciously oversold, until we break above the 1,100 level S/P and hold for at least as long as this impressive hiccup of 6 months, the recent chest pounding will be short-lived.
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Please respect that markets sell-off a lot faster and harder than they move up. Due to the tremendous fiscal spend/budget deficit, we know this Administration expected better economic data from the percentage unemployed, a full 8 months into their proclamation of change. Capitalist Pig Bob asks you what has really changed since Bush left office?
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Yet IF you punish the haves in a capitalistic society, what target will the have-nots have to aim for? President Abraham Lincoln said: "Let him not who is houseless pull down the house of another, but let him work diligently and build one for himself, thus by example assuring that his own shall be safe from violence when built".  POTC does not believe current partisan policies reward entrpreneurship, on the contrary; Lincoln would scoff at Obama in our opinion...
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Capitalist Pig Bob agrees, and cautions to this technical reflex in equities. This incredible equity rally has nothing to do with change, as employment, real estate and credit aren't humming, and the new abnormal consumer attitude may not change for years. With all due respect for the genius money managers at Pimco, especially Mr. El-Arian, we choose to refer to the new economic environment as the "new abnormal", as the price of bonds and gold remain dangerously dislocated. A fine triple witching thursday is wished on all.
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May the September witch's boom boom broomstick sprinkle you with a lil' trader's luck and greater forward-looking wit. The Psychology of the Call team would very much apprechiate if you told your friends to post their political rants for or against this partisan Administration on Capitalist Pig Bob's Facebook page.

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