Thursday, April 18, 2013

We Respect Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass for his Fiscal Conservative Views; but We did Call Gold Lower and many Subscribers Booked 700%+ Returns while Bass was in Direct Opposition...

Hedge fund guru Kyle Bass on gold: April 9, 2013.

Fund: Hayman Capital Master
Manager: Kyle Bass
Management Firm: Hayman Capital Management
Strategy: Event driven
Assets, in billions: $1.0
2011 return: 1.8%

source: Bloomberg

Sent to POTC subscribers on March 18, 2013

We are building a X% portfolio position in the NEM May $35 puts.

We will build the position over the next 3-days. 

Our thesis is that gold is over-owned and the stagger-step unwind is upon us. We predict a S/P pullback has also begun and gold will fail.

Most miners are in a precarious position today, NEM's hefty dividend should be under pressure as the co reports in just over a month. Our plan is exit out of 50% of our put contracts after the position doubles.

Many subscribers booked 700%+ returns on Monday, April 15, 2013. 

Though we agree with Bass on many political issues,  the breakdown in gold in the face of weak U.S. economic statistics should have been a warning flag for him; especially after the Large and Round number of $1,500.00 was taken out. 

The S/P has been more volatile lately as a group of money managers have become too cozy in gold; the recent and large % drop will force many of them to rejigger portfolios and  stir volatility; even as the Fed buys $80 billion of Treasuries a month.  

POTC has followed Bass since 2008 and will continue as he made a killing in the 2008 Banking and Credit crisis. Yet we wish the TV media monopolies would give a tad more time to lesser known sources like the team at Psychology of the Call (POTC).

We called the top in crude oil to the day in the summer of 2008 and now we warned about gold. If you would like to read what we wrote, email us with 'Oil' in the subject line:

Thanks for telling a friend about our Post Earnings Educational Trade Alert (PEETA) efforts.

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