Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Donkey Regime Espouses Clear Fiscal and Social Danger for Long-Term Capitalism


Next economic market moving data comes this Thursday at 8:30ET, Initial Claims for Unemployment week ending 11/7: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm/
Last posted 512K, now the estimates are from 510K - 525K.
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POTC has blogged about the government smoothing effect before and we remind again: the tremendous gov't spending will create many public jobs, whether in education, health and human services, transportation, energy, or labor/infrastucture, more gov't jobs are definitely coming: http://www.stimuluswatch.org/project/by_state/
Yet the long-term impact this un-American governmnet spending paradigm will have on the all important private sector is reason to be very concerned...
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The Obama Administration is not completely stupid; dangerous to capitalism a resounding yes, but completely ignorant in their anti free-market agenda, no. The Administration realizes a controlled drip of stimulus money will be necessary to have a better chance at stabilizing the financial markets and hence increasing their chances of winning the midterm November 2010 elections.

Even the slightest passage of bills with the word "public" attached, i.e. public health care option, could envelope our free-market system after the midterm elections. Give them an inch and they'll want a mile, caution. Hopefully more Americans are paying attention to what is standing before us.
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Inside this highly impressive 8 month technical bounce, it is difficult to short the S&P, yet there are many V-shaped stocks that could come tumbling on account of uncertain and dislocated fundamentals looking-out 6 months - 1 year (ISRG is one example).
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Yet we feel this 8 month liquidity rush into stocks could continue as this Administration is only in the infancy stages of a $787B stimulus - spend. Trading has never felt so plastic and difficult to time.
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POTC predicts weekly claims continue their trajectory down due to the government smoothing effect. As that 500K mark is broken on November 26th, a Santa Clause rally could take a firm grip through year-end, forcing shorts to cover and underperforming money managers to buy at bloated prices.
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An S&P spike may well occur through year end and shock bears and bulls alike. POTC would consider S&P 1,300 the ultimate Obama spending spike and unsustainable technical level, presenting the best shorting opportunity since 2000.
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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

1,300 WoW!! We'll have to wait and see. ISRG is noted, any limits on that trade?