Thursday, September 3, 2009

U.S. Unemployed Stuck at Stupid; the New Abnormal Fear...

Today's trailing weekly unemployment number remained stuck at failed policies. Many know the U.S. economy cannot recover without job growth, and what makes anyone optimistic we can get back to a zero weekly unemployment number from the depths of minus 570K? The stubborn spike in unemployment remains a major concern in the short and medium term (1 - 5 years): http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm . With so many complicated moving parts at work (micro and macro), we do not believe this unemployment bubble that will suddenly burst, as unemployment is much trickier to tackle than the crude oil spike of 2008. . Unemployment could continue to trend higher over President Obama's term if he doesn't tweak fiscal policy in favor of the private sector's working man and woman. We feel Chairman Bernanke should have declined a second term in solidarity for future free-market health, as no monetary policies can be a panacea for unfair fiscal policies. . This administration's blatant imbalance between fiscal and monetary policy favors a larger government at the expense (tax) of a smaller private sector. What do President Obama's advisers not understand about lowering taxes and reevaluating the flawed gargantuan budget. We argue that more money in private hands would fire start job growth in due time. . Taxes on businesses, individuals, and investments should be cut in half for a 6 - 12 month period at the expense of a tighter budget. Yet this administration may not even blink as President Bush's tax cuts expire in 2010... We find it unprofessional that most cable talking heads have stopped using the word 'bottom' lately, as we think this is exactly when the word should be debated. Bottoms are never marked by smooth "V's" or "U's" without running into any unfortunate left field events, i.e. global currency issues, unfriendly legislation, terrorism. Traders would be wise to raise cash allocation percentages IF the S&P breaks below the 990 level. . The changes President Obama has initiated have and will continue to sour due to pro big government fiscal policies. We do not see a safe fundamental floor below us, only a growing number of anti free-market policies that are due to cripple equity valuations and ignite a new abnormal fear...

4 comments:

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Patricia

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