Wednesday, March 25, 2009

S/P Above 820 is a Definite Sell; this Politically Noisy Bear Rally Will not Last; Please Keep Your Eyes & Ears Wide Open

Thursday, March 26th at 8:30ET brings Initial Claims for Unemployment for week ending 3/21: Prior number was 646K, now consensus is for 650K. Just like the existing and new home sales charts, the unemployment chart looks horrible. We reiterate about the problems with calling a bottom or turn in any spiraling market. Yet as traders we know that markets do not go straight down or straight up, so as these numbers are expected to come out bad, smart money usually buys ahead of these weekly reports. At such depths we only expect anomalies to occur to the upside, and that would exacerbate a bear market rally for Thursday. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Q4 comes at 8:30ET as well: Prior reading was a scary minus (6.2%), consensus now is for minus (6.6%). IF that consensus is beat, so (6.5%) or less, then the market will rally. IF that (6.6%) is hit on the head or above (6.7%), the market will be in trouble. POTC believes the number will post bullish and long portfolios will be rewarded today. Okay; how can we not remind you of the coincidence again of the low S&P print of 666 just weeks ago, and now a GDP number that's forecast to be minus 6.6%? So many 6's must have the conspiracy theorists blogging about the end time being near. Not us, yet we love to point out anything related to numbers and sprinkle in some comic relief; this is NOT an easy exercise, especially considering how dire the global macro environment is! Please read on... Before market earnings from Gamestop Corp. (GME), Q4 '09, revenues are estimated to come in at $3.45B, and that would be a substantial beat over last year's same quarter of $2.87B. EPS is expected to come in at $1.36, and last year's same quarter was $1.14. Perhaps the same beat Buffalo Wild Wings shocked the Street with is in store for Gamestop. Even though we are very concerned with pooled investments related to commercial real estate assets, there are exceptions in retailers, and POTC believes GME is one. Family Dollar (FDO) and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) are the other two. And if Sonic Corp. (SONC) goes through a management shake up, we would consider going long as well. Our target price on GME is much higher from where it's currently trading. Best Buy Inc. (BBY), Q4 '09, revenue estimates at $14.82B, up nicely year over year. As difficult it is to believe that many of these retailers are experiencing rising sales, we must point out that it's NOT as rosey a picture at BBY compared to GME. BBY's eps are supposed to come in at $1.39, and last year that figure was a fatter $1.71! With the fact Circuit City bankrupted, BBY could be an interesting buy if their revenues come in above $15B, so for aggressive traders who enjoy the shopping experience at Best Buy and feel revenues will surpass $15B, we recommend buying ahead of this report as well. We remind everyone of the phenomenon that it is truly a "market of stocks", not merely a "stock market". So as pessimistic as we are in our belief the S&P will eventually retest the old lows of 666, we do realize the opportunities in individual stocks from week to week nonetheless.IF you enjoyed any of the above analysis, please spread our blog email address to family and friends: Our team puts in roughly 18 hours of research per day in order to give a more scientific look to 21st century investment finance. And just how strange the free markets have become since the nearly overnight extinction of all five U.S. investment banks in 2008! The Psychology of the Call team.


Anonymous said...

how soon is soon? a day, a week or a month?

Anonymous said...

Wrong call again, the Obama rally marches on.