Prior income figure came in at 0.4%, now estimate is calling for a gloomy 0.5% swing down to minus (0.1%). Personal spending prior figure was 0.6%, and now estimates are for 0.3%, so down 50% month to month. These figures to us seem too pessimistic, although we do not recommend placing large bets/trades going into any Friday, ever. Seasoned traders usually raise cash into weekends, so even good news Fridays have what's called a lag effect.
At 9:55ET the Revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment is slated for release: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/mich.htm
Although we do not believe this will have a meaningful change on market direction, it probably will work to exacerbate the trend. After correctly predicting today's rally (see below) we predict a sell-off ahead of the weekend.
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[In relation to Thursday's release of Gross Domestic Product we stated: "Prior reading was a scary minus (6.2%), consensus now is for minus (6.6%). IF that consensus is beat, so (6.5%) or less, then the market will rally. IF that (6.6%) is hit on the head or above (6.7%), the market will be in trouble. POTC believes the number will post bullish and long portfolios will be rewarded today." The posted number was (6.2%)]There are no meaningful earnings before or after market this Friday.
3 comments:
excellent job! Crisis Man.
Nicely done. Nice call yesterday, nice call for today. You've got the good stuff going in this crappy market. Thanks for all your hard work.
Shorted before the close last night, making a ton today, thanks guys.
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