Friday, February 27, 2009

The Irony Behind Friday's National Polar Day Alarm

Greetings to all forward-thinkers, POTC hopes you read our Geithner piece, posted just 3 days ago, in which we predicted a retest of 741. Maybe it's just a coincidence, yet some will smile with glee as stocks break through the sheet of ice on a day that celebrates the Polar Bear? (Friday is National Polar Bear Day!) All political sarcasm aside, POTC is not happy with the fiscal unfriendliness of this new administration. Unless President Obama does an abrupt 180, the equity markets will be in deep t-r-o-u-b-l-e for many months to come. Will the S&P go straight down, of course not; but as forward-thinkers we must devoid our minds of our current positions and imagine we were either 100% cash or had the exact opposite position. Bears... please think like bulls, and bulls... like bears, got that? That way you'll better understand the dynamics of a bear market, one that mauls and breaks long & short dreams like twigs. Knowing that markets gap and fill (technically), pausing to breathe while getting to their eventual destination, we never fall in love with any current position if we have 30% gains. Booking profits and taking a day or two off is a good thing. We never go into a trade and talk ourselves into it becoming a longer-term position IF it has a > 15% loss. The 11 Commandments of Trading spell out the rules more fully. Many traders and most all investors lose money & sleep in a bear market, and this bear seems to have forgotten it was ever a cub! We can only hope from this 753 S&P level the market does a "lunar-tic fringe" type move, so please re-read how such a set-up can develop. It has a lot to do with the market being slightly green before 10ET (S&P +8), then selling off: S&P minus 10, then 20, then 30, and finally 40+, volume rising, chest pounding, screen flashing, etc etc. The generals like CME, GOOG, and AAPL should begin rising & fighting for their bloody lives. The generals must stage their rally before 2 - 2:30ET; both down as well as up rallies must be met with extremely high volume, you will feel it when you see it, trust us. The volatility index (VIX) should spike above 55 and perhaps touch 60 in the ultimate climactic double wash-out whipsaw bottom (see Geithner piece). Here's a look at the gauge of market volatility (traders flipping their positions while long-term investors throw in the towel). IF the VIX doesn't accelerate through at least 55 on Friday, we do NOT believe National Polar Day will bring that all important second bottom. Then we will look-forward to Monday. Until the VIX touches the S&P again (technically), bulls will remain trapped under the thick sheet of Red Polar Bear ice:

POTC definitely supports maintaining a clean environment for future generations, yet we do not believe in sacrificing billions of dollars for certain truths that are cyclical & inevitable. Who knows, perhaps controlling volcanic eruptions comes after we master the ice cap thing.

Come to think of it, the Psychology of the Call team much rather root for the Polar Bear after all. Any updates on the Clinton spotted owl are welcome. This downbound market train has left most without any Satisfaction; here's the next American superstar entrepreneur in no need of a bail-out, Adam Lambert:


Anonymous said...

I saw that performance, simply INCREDIBLE. He will win.

Anonymous said...

He will win 1M%