Fed's Plosser Bewildered, Guessing at '09 Recovery"

NEWARK, Del. (Dow Jones)--The pace and strength of a U.S. economic recovery are hard to predict, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said Wednesday. -- "Every quarter of '09 will not be as bad or as ugly as the fourth quarter of '08," although it's hard to say how quickly the economy will turn around once the bottom is reached, Plosser said during a panel discussion at the University of Delaware. "We're all guessing," he added. -- Plosser, reiterating comments in a speech earlier, said he expects positive growth in the second half, although "it may not be very much." -- "Finding a bottom to the housing crisis is critical to almost everything that happens, in my perspective. I think we're getting close, but a lot of us thought two years ago we were getting close," Plosser said. -- In his earlier speech, Plosser said he doesn't expect to see a turnaround until the second half. He said he expects the last quarter of 2008 to book a relatively sharp decline and said total growth for the current year "is likely to be well below 2%, after negative growth in 2008." -- Plosser said the current recession is likely to be the longest since World War II, although the downturn is unlikely to replicate the sort of job losses seen in the past. -- "I do not expect the unemployment rate to stray into double digits during this recession," even as any sort of moderation on that front is unlikely to arrive soon, he said. -By Dinah Wisenberg Brin, Dow Jones Newswires; 215-656-8285; dinah.brin@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=jDKaIXK4fgMFtVMZvWQvkw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires January 14, 2009 11:10 ET (16:10 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 11 10 AM EST 01-14-09