Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Trend Setting Tuesday Intraday Alert, Alert: (Dow -64 S&P -14)

Good Day to All! Our call for a bear market rally stands. The S&P index has never traded this much below its 200 day moving average since the Great Depression. (Doug Kass- perma bear) The two overhangs have been energy stocks due to falling crude and - obviously - financials. They weigh tremendously on the S&P. We believe the job cuts behind and ahead will only bolster bottom lines/earnings, therefore knocking down already ridiculous price to earnings multiples and exploding stock prices. Today's fundamentals offer a compelling reason to be long, even breaking the 2nd Commandment of Trading and going all in... When the tide of a technical bear market rally comes in, it tends to have a tsunami effect on prices, raising 95% of sectors, so caution to all technicians calling for lower prices, and all seeking to find blame (government bashers). Many of the talking heads today are focused on a hyper doom & gloom scenario; we feel if you act on their advice, you will miss a 20%+ rally in the S&P, and larger moves in individual oversold issues like Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Profiting in the short run requires skills that combine technical, fundamental, and qualitative analysis. Our bear market call hinges upon the crippled psychology of the average investor coupled with the amount of cash on the sidelines in hedge funds. We urge all forward thinkers to consider that bear rallies come when sector dislocations are occurring, and if you take a moment and study Citigroup (C, -6%) and Goldman Sachs (GS, +.06%) side by side on a daily chart, you'll see there is a tug of war that's sector internal and that strongly suggests one thing: A rally is about to begin. Thanks to all who took time and answered the blog poll. As of today, President elect Obama's appointments have been approximately 30% conservative, usually deemed "Wall Street friendly"... We will continue to monitor these developments as they unfold. We strongly believe the connection between politics/policy/legislation is critical to the financial markets, so the uncertainty this Presidential transition of power is causing has decimated equity valuations as though the world was coming to an end: IT'S NOT. From the entire Psychology of the Call team, cheers to a great bear market rally that takes us through 1,000 on the S&P by Thanksgiving!

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