May this mail reach you in good health & good spirits!
The churning in the markets continues to wash out most professional money managers. The only sure fire method to use today is what Dennis Gartman describes as "getting smaller", and it's still not too late to get small into any 3%-5% rallies. Two weeks ago, the Psychology of the Call team (POTC) recommended selling all rallies greater than 3%, and that advice has worked well.
We are concerned with the temporary and limp market blip Friday, after the semi-bullish sentiment expressed by legendary investing guru Warren Buffett (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett) was quoted and quoted time and again. And yet equities sold off violently from their afternoon highs.
We are also very concerned with many respected professionals like Dennis Gartman and Warren Buffett piling into the banking sector and espousing its merits publicly. Could their behavior be construed as desperate? Giants can afford to be wrong a lot longer than the individual investor, as their liquidity is wider and deeper.
Anais Nin once wrote: "If a person continues to see only giants, it means he is still looking at the world through the eyes of a child". Of course POTC respects the legendary minds of investment finance, yet we must not forget that they’re mere mortals.
Gartman's and Buffett's decision to overweight banks today could turn out to be the biggest paradoxical blunder come early to mid 2009, as unemployment rises north of 7%. Moreover, IF it happens to be an Obama/Biden administration, their policy of raising taxes on individuals and businesses making more than $250K/year will further cripple the economy and trickle into the banking sector, extending the pain to all sectors.
Anytime the government has regulated any sector....
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If you would like to receive this and future posts and market analysis, please send an e-mail to Psychologyofthecall@gmail.com and make sure that your e-mail client will not consider messages from that address as spam.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Psychology of the Upcoming Week's Earnings and Economic Data
May this mail reach you in good health & good spirits!
The churning in the markets continues to wash out most professional money managers. The only sure fire method to use today is what Dennis Gartman describes as "getting smaller", and it's still not too late to get small into any 3%-5% rallies. Two weeks ago, the Psychology of the Call team (POTC) recommended selling all rallies greater than 3%, and that advice has worked well.
We are concerned with the temporary and limp market blip Friday, after the semi-bullish sentiment expressed by legendary investing guru Warren Buffett (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett) was quoted and quoted time and again. And yet equities sold off violently from their afternoon highs.
We are also very concerned with many respected professionals like Dennis Gartman and Warren Buffett piling into the banking sector and espousing its merits publicly. Could their behavior be construed as desperate? Giants can afford to be wrong a lot longer than the individual investor, as their liquidity is wider and deeper.
Anais Nin once wrote: "If a person continues to see only giants, it means he is still looking at the world through the eyes of a child". Of course POTC respects the legendary minds of investment finance, yet we must not forget that they’re mere mortals.
Gartman's and Buffett's decision to overweight banks today could turn out to be the biggest paradoxical blunder come early to mid 2009, as unemployment rises north of 7%. Moreover, IF it happens to be an Obama/Biden administration, their policy of raising taxes on individuals and businesses making more than $250K/year will further cripple the economy and trickle into the banking sector, extending the pain to all sectors.
Anytime the government has regulated any sector....
---------------------------------
If you would like to receive this and future posts and market analysis, please send an e-mail to Psychologyofthecall@gmail.com and make sure that your e-mail client will not consider messages from that address as spam.
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6 comments:
I'm starting to hear more and more about infrastructure.... What is your target price for AMN
We believe AMN could easily go to $80 within 3 months in any kind of prolonged bear market rally. AMN is a small capitalization firm out of California that will come back strong. It's our contention that anyone selling here must be forced into deleveraging. AMN at $38 or $48 will look like a very good buy by New Year, regardless of who wins.
Did you all take down the initial posts regarding AMN (i.e. Target of $190)... I can't find them. If so, why?
No posts regarding AMN (or anything else) have been taken down. AMN has been sold off along with many value stocks. Our timing was completely off, but we stand behing AMN's fundamentals and remain extremely positive through 2009. AMN is trading with other value type, supposed bullet proof stocks: FWLT, IR, SGR ..
Is there anything specific that you're looking for with regard to AMN?
No... was thinking about dumping more $ into AMN and I wanted to read what you all had posted again.
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