Friday, September 19, 2008

HMP's Newer Deal Cements the Foundational Crack in Banking

Hank Merritt Paulson's (HMP's) astronomical deal will go down in the annals of history with the late FDR's "new deal." The "foundational crack" in the banking system, which POTC addressed before the collapse of Bear Stearns, finally gets cemented. We applaud the bipartisan effort and await its finality on Friday, by 3:00pm ET. POTC wishes one and all, from border to border, scattered across all five habitable continents a happy Friday and weekend ahead. We look forward to delivering a detailed "Psychology in the Upcoming Week's Earnings & Economic Data" on Saturday night, as well as other useful/relevant updates to the Island Where Forward Thinkers Evolve. Stay tuned! The Psychology of the Call team. Here's a reminder of how we addressed the "Foundational Crack" back on February 28th:
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Psychology of the Call did finger Alan Greenspan yesterday for causing the "irrational speculation" in the Real Estate/Mortgage market, and today the fall out continues. The Unemployment numbers released this morning are inching up to disastrous levels. Greenspan's lowering of the Fed Funds rate to 1.25% unleashed a steroidal effect across the U.S. economy and now the credit and stock markets are in panic mode. The foundational crack has been revealed and it'll take a lot more than carpenters to fix it.
--Wall Street prefers the ability to forecast the future, giving them an understanding of what to do with their capital. Wall Street prefers growth orientated momentum on both sides of the accounting ledger, but neither stocks nor bonds feel comfortable here.
--A good childhood buddy in the Corporate Offices of Goldman Sachs in Manhattan, New York is beginning to question the legitimacy of what is left in the subprime market. The credit spreads are causing bewilderment in the most powerful Wall Street Institutions. Now that we know that, do we advise our readers to buy stocks today? Absolutely NOT! We actually see more lay offs on the horizon at major Wall Street houses, so exhibit caution.
We see the "biggest hammer being wielded" in anticipation of the Unemployment Number on March 7. This hammer will not be kind to those who are long stocks and investors should shy away from adding to any positions until after that date.. Your Cash Will Be King as you sit and listen to the confused talking heads on CNBC and other for-profit channels.As for Bernanke, the tone of his delivery and the trembling in his voice will only get worse after this morning’s employment data – ugly, ugly, ugly. What is the Fed to do? We’re not Economists and we wouldn’t wish Bernanke's job on Mahmud Ahmadinajad (well, maybe we would). But we urge our readers to sit back and watch the show, with cash and buttered popcorn in hand; don't step in what we see as a deep foundational crack.
--Happy trading and remember, Psychology of the Call matters.


Anonymous said...

very impressive IF that was written on Feb 28th ..

Anonymous said...

I began reading the blog in mid March, but I did print that piece out, it was archived under Feb. This blog spot is truly forward looking, no doubt about it. Hats off to the monster efforts of whoever is in charge.
Mike A.