Thursday, August 7, 2008

Intraday Oil Reversal and a Trading Prediction

A good Thursday to all! After another weak showing in weekly unemployment numbers, the markets hiccuped and had difficulty from the start. The crude oil dragon's attempt to gain traction to higher levels exacerbated the selling pressure, as crude touched $122/barrel briefly from a close below $118.58/barrel Wednesday.

With crude trading flat to slightly down after a $3.00+/barrel intraday reversal, the major stock indexes are mixed.

There is no market moving economic or earnings data scheduled for a few days, so please sell/short the S&P into any strength. Tomorrow's focus will be on another weekend of Israeli & Iranian tension, potentially driving crude a few dollars higher.

Again, with no catalysts to drive the S&P higher Friday, Monday, or Tuesday, we strongly feel it is wise to either go short the S&P, or just exhibit patience and hold cash. Tuesday afternoon will be the first good opportunity to go long, as lower prices are almost a certainty Friday, Monday, and Tuesday. The first substantive economic data comes Wednesday before market open (Retail Sales) and the reaction should be bullish in our opinion. Long positions in the S&P will be rewarded on Wednesday, so late Tuesday afternoon will present the swing opportunity. POTC would not be surprised to see the S&P pullback to 1,250 by Tuesday afternoon.

We urge our readers to practice the 11 Commandments, as they hold the key to short and long term success. The Psychology of the Call team wishes all a wonderful Thursday, and please exhibit patience during these boring summer months. We leave you with a relaxing song/video, Girl from Ipanema by Stan Getz:


Anonymous said...

Agree, no reason to be long before the weekend. Great video!

Anonymous said...

Do you think you still have it right after SPY rallied 20 some points? With EURUSD continues to weaken, it seems as if the market will continue to rally.