Friday, June 6, 2008

The Upcoming Psychology of Oil, Politics and Everything

POTC feels the House and Senate MUST lock themselves in a closed door session and pass drilling in Alaska ASAP. That single action would knock down the biggest evil to the global growth story; the explosion in the cost of a barrel of crude oil. We remain bearish due to the rise in the price of crude, although we do believe there’s a lot more politics behind this sudden rise in cost than any talking heads are yet reporting. Our readers should not be surprised if news surfaces of a concerted effort from the left wing fringe, especially the George Soros clan, bidding up oil in order for Barack Obama to win the election.

Thanks for your Friday attention. We will no longer be providing the Psychology of the Upcoming Week's Data on this blog. We have big changes in the works in the upcoming weeks, specifically the relocation of our blog to a highly regarded blog site (further details coming up soon) and the launch of a website that will host the Psychology of the Week’s Data, intraday updates, recommendations, and so much more.

To all our readers and supporters, we wish you a weekend filled with good friends and good cheer! We leave you with the 11 Commandments and the seven psychological pillars, all of which are so vital to your long term success:

The Psychology of the Call team.

The Eleven Commandments of Trading
1. Never trade more than 10% of your total capital/account value in any one position.
2. Cash is King, and we recommend keeping 20% liquid to take advantage of dislocations and volatility.
3. Cut losses to 15% maximum whenever possible. If your psyche is shaken, step away and don't trade for 1 week.
4. Take and enjoy profits of 30% or more.
5. Never fall in love with a stock and never force trades or over trade; remember commandment #2.
6. Never accept excuses from management, period.
7. Use technical and fundamental data & psychology/sentiment from the conference call to select trades.
8. There are two sides to the market, long & short; take advantage of that leverage.
9. Understand the significance of the macro geo-political economic environment.
10. Unforeseen events/shocks will happen, inverting the market upside down (remember commandments #1 & #2)
11. All of the above are void without reading the Psychology of the Call.

The Seven Psychological Pillars to Successful Trading
1. We believe in patience. A patient trader waits for superior opportunities to enter and exit. A trader who forces trades after winning or losing will set him/herself up for potential losses, because gambling, rather than psychology has taken over the mind.
2. We believe a stock's volatility is a positive attribute. Volatility can be caused by stock specific news related to earnings, management changes, law suits, technology/patents, market share, or short interest. Volatility can also be caused by the overall market/S&P. We take advantage of price volatility, setting specific entry and exit points based on basic technical analysis, with emphasis on the 200 day moving average.
3. We believe in only trading above average entry points, as the over sold and over bought stocks become evident to our trained psychological eyes. Learn to take advantage of these superior entry points, as wash outs and peaks offer attractive premiums as you go against the herd.
4. We believe the market will be around next Friday, next month, and next year, so we take one day a week off in order to clear our minds. Cultivate a hobby because a healthy life style contributes to a healthier mind. Better trading decisions result when we are well rested and involved in other things besides trading. Go fishing, visit a Museum, tend to your garden, tinker with your car, forget about stocks for a day.
5. We believe investor sentiment/psychology and S&P swings affect individual stock movements in the short run more than any fundamental metric or ratio. Exhibit caution when attempting to trade on backward looking fundamental analysis, forward P/Es or future cash flows.
6. We believe there is only one Warren Buffet, but if you master market mechanics you will be become a multimillionaire by understanding, appreciating and trading volatility.
7. Finally, we believe the importance of maintaining some cash/liquidity in the portfolio and always booking profits, but especially on Friday, as smart money sells to avoid the risk of some weekend geo-political event.

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