Monday, June 16, 2008

Psychology & Politics behind the NY Empire Index Weakness

In our weekend piece under Monday's analysis, we erred, please allow us to clarify. The extreme weakness in the NY Empire manufacturing Index, below 8, ties the FOMC's hands and makes it very difficult to raise rates. POTC was thinking strength in this number would do that, we were wrong in our fundamental analysis. We hope our readers understand the politics behind the nearly 200 manufacturing executives answering the survey in a very negative way. The negativity is an attempt to stave off interest rate hikes, as tighter money would mean worse NY Empire manufacturing numbers ahead. We apologize for our fundamental mistake, but we are happy to clear up the politics and psychology behind this reading, as it makes perfect sense. POTC stands behind our weekend statement that oil will determine today's trade, and it is trading above $139/barrel as of this writing. The Psychology of the Call team reminds our readers of patience, one of the 7 Pillars so critical to your long term trading/investing sanity and financial success.

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