Friday, March 14, 2008

CPI and Core CPI Both Unchanged For February

The CPI and Core CPI both came in unchanged for February, after rising in January 0.4% (CPI) & 0.3% (CoreCPI). Congratulations to the guys over at Briefing, who had the consensus pegged lower than most economists. That said, we do not feel that the consumer is in any better shape today than in January. We look for confirmation of our beliefs in today's Michigan Consumer Sentiment slated for 10AM ET. Our analysis shows Crude Oil climbing well over 20% in the spot market since January; we strongly believe the Core CPI will be GREATLY REVISED UPWARD come March, causing most long entrants today to sell. We urge our readers to consider that scenario of a MAJOR revision next month in the March CPI data. At Psychology of the Call we prefer a scientific approach, never considering Government conspiracy theories. However this morning's CPI data had Chief CNBC Economist Steve Liesman mentioning the word "CONSPIRACY" while scratching his noggin (at 8:35Am ET). Our readers should understand we DO NOT want to see a recession, but we believe we have been in one since at least the 4th Quarter of 2007. Maybe the Government just missed accumulating data from their sources on the price of energy? SENTIMENT/PSYCHOLOGY looks to have been strengthened today, albeit with what we regard as a very mysterious set of data. Please stay tuned for March's CPI as this conundrum unfolds ...

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