Fed's Greenlee Offers the Ugly Commercial Real Estate Stats and Muted Prospects for Growth ...

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)-- Federal banking examiners continue to see sharp deterioration in the credit performance of commercial real estate loans held by U.S. banks, the Federal Reserve's associate director of banking and supervision said Monday.

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In a speech before the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, the Federal Reserve's Jon Greenlee noted that about 9% of commercial real estate loans in bank portfolios were considered delinquent at the end of the second quarter.
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Banks at the end of that quarter held approximately $3.5 trillion in outstanding debt related to commercial real estate loans, he said.
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Banks struggles with commercial real estate loans, however, are only part of the challenge facing the financial sector going forward.
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"Corporate bond spreads are high by historical standards as expected losses and risk premiums remain elevated," Greenlee, who was speaking in Michigan, said.
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He expects credit conditions will remain tight for small businesses even as demand is muted because of sluggish growth prospects.
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-By Meena Thiruvengadam, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-6629; meena.thiruvengadam@dowjones.com
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Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=PO5BRXyuTDweTVto76I9eA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 30, 2009 11:00 ET (16:00 GMT)
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Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 11 00 AM EST 11-30-09

With Only 23 Trading Days in '09, S&P is a Whopping 21% Higher Since We Posted this Question; POTC Now Urges Great Caution Through End of Year, as a 10%+ Pullback is Overdue:

In 1 year, 12/31/'09, S&P will be: (Votes Tallied from 12/25/'08 - 02/14/'09):

35 - Much lower*
23 - Slightly higher*
19 - Much the same*
17 - Much higher*
9 - Slightly lower*
*S&P Closed At 903 on 12/31/'08
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The Greenback's New Channel of Pain vs the Yen; Only Questions Now are Duration of this Ugly Scenario and Whose Currency is Next to Become Unhinged ...

http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/jpycandle.shtml#candle/

Dubai's Reaching Out to Neighbor Abu Dhabi Highlights the Seriousness of its Self Inflicted Commercial Real Estate Wound; Pressure Should Mount from Conservative Islamists Against a Dubai Bailout as Devout Islam Forbids Paying or Receiving any Interest Income; Socioeconomic Conundrum Unfolding, caution ...

Associated Press (AP):
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Yet Abu Dhabi's largesse may be reaching some limits. On the same day that Dubai announced its debt
payment "standstill," two Abu Dhabi-controlled banks bought $5 billion in Dubai bonds for a stopgap cash infusion, but went no further.
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"I guess Abu Dhabi is saying there will be no blank check for Dubai," said Jane Kinninmont, a London-based specialist on Gulf economies at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
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What Abu Dhabi could get for their money, however, is greater long-term influence over Dubai's development policies. That would essentially mean giving the wealthy and more conservative rulers in the UAE's capital the task of trying to rein in Dubai after years of living beyond its means.
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Dubai crash landed about a year ago as the global economic downturn ended a sizzling property boom, which saw prices skyrocket and investors lining up for new projects. The state-backed Dubai World led the charge with a catalog brimming with ever-bigger ideas and the bold motto: "The sun never sets on Dubai World."
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Some were completed before the bubble burst, such as the Palm Jumeirah island that included a Hollywood A-list opening of the Atlantis resort in November 2008. But dozens of major projects, including entire mini-cities in the desert, have been shelved.
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Abu Dhabi has moved ahead with more caution — comfortable in the fact it has vast oil wealth that Dubai does not enjoy.
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Its rulers have concentrated on what they see as attempts to gain global stature as hub for culture and innovation: funding an alternative energy research center and building satellite museums for the Louvre and Guggenheim. The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund is constantly on the hunt for new investments, including U.S. companies such as Citigroup Inc.
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Abu Dhabi's strategists are expected to dig deeper into Dubai World's books before deciding their next move, analysts say.
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Dubai officials said plans to restructure Dubai World will not include its profitable ports management division, DP World, which has a presence in nearly 50 facilities around the world. The main retooling will be to Dubai World's battered real estate units, led by Nakheel.
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A report from Goldman Sachs said the lenders HSBC Holdings PLC and Standard Chartered PLC could have the most exposure to Dubai debt, but the potential credit losses appeared relatively small. The deeper risks could directly hit Emirates' banks and investment firms.
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Christopher Davidson, an expert in Emirate affairs at Britain's Durham University, wondered if Abu Dhabi wanted to become too deeply involved in lifting Dubai from its fiscal wreckage.
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"There is no point throwing good money into Dubai's black holes," Davidson said. "These are mistakes of Sheik Mohammed and he needs to deal with them."
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Dubai Debt Worries and Greenback 14 YEAR Low vs Yen will Derail S&P Rally; Asian Markets Selling-Off Hard Overnight ..

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9C79EQO0.htm/

SEC's Khuzami Shifts Focus to Options and Futures Cheats ...

The Securities and Exchange Commission will broaden the focus of its insider trading cases beyond the traditional equities sector into other instruments, such as derivatives, the agency's enforcement director said Monday, Bloomberg News reported on its Web site. Robert Khuzami, speaking at a New York legal conference, cautioned that the "days of insider-trading scrutiny being focused almost solely on the equity markets are now gone." He declined to say whether the SEC has any current insider trading investigations involving derivatives. Khuzami joined the agency in March.

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Full story at: www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNPUak7MMqgY&pos=3
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-Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2900
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=zwt0mZzjDDJIeNODwDY8mQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 23, 2009 12:39 ET (17:39 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 12 39 PM EST 11-23-09
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Donkeys' Partisan Health Care Stanglehold is Being Held Up by a Single Senator from Arkansas; Cheers to Blanche Lincoln, so far ...

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Sen. Mary Landrieu, (D., La.), announced Saturday that she would vote to advance a $848 billion health-care overhaul measure, bringing Democrats one step closer to unanimity on an initial procedural vote on the bill slated for tonight.

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Landrieu, who is considered a centrist Democrat, made her announcement in a speech on the Senate floor. While she said the bill contained "amazing and cutting-edge reforms" to reduce health-care costs, she cautioned that she had not decided whether to support passing the bill in a final Senate vote.
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"I've decided that there are enough significant reforms and safeguards in this bill to move forward, but much more work needs to be done," Landrieu said.
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The vote on the procedural motion, which if approved would allow the Senate to formally begin debate on the measure after it returns from a Thanksgiving recess, is set for 8 p.m. EST Saturday.
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Landrieu's announcement follows a similar announcement by Sen. Ben Nelson, (D., Neb.), another centrist, on Friday. Democrats are still waiting on Sen. Blanche Lincoln, (D., Ark.), who faces a tough re-election battle in 2010, to announce how she will vote on the measure.
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In all, 60 senators--58 Democrats and 2 independents--caucus with Senate Democrats. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.), must secure all of their votes in order to prevent a filibuster on the motion to proceed to the bill.
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Reid has worked assiduously to gain the support of Nelson, Landrieu and Lincoln to begin debate on the bill. Aides have pointed to a provision in the bill that would steer an estimated $200 million to $250 million in Medicaid funds for Louisiana in fiscal 2011 as an overture to Landrieu.
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-By Patrick Yoest, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-3554; patrick.yoest@dowjones.com
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=Xe%2Fsjdo6uTceR2BNpA5ArA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 21, 2009 12:58 ET (17:58 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 12 58 PM EST 11-21-09
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Geithner's Testimony Next Thursday at 10ET Regarding Regulations Bodes Bearishness Ahead of Friday's Option Expiration...

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is to testify next week about the efforts to overhaul the financial regulatory landscape at a hearing of the joint economic committee of Congress.

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According to a statement released by the committee, Geithner will testify about whether any loopholes in regulation led to last year's financial collapse, and how proposed regulatory changes will promote job growth and economic stability.
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The hearing is scheduled for Nov. 19 at 10 a.m. EST.
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-By Corey Boles, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-6601; corey.boles@dowjones.com
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=%2Bj4Gq6PYcnUJEFI5CLuhaQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 12, 2009 14:52 ET (19:52 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 02 52 PM EST 11-12-09
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Donkey Regime Espouses Clear Fiscal and Social Danger for Long-Term Capitalism

Next economic market moving data comes this Thursday at 8:30ET, Initial Claims for Unemployment week ending 11/7: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm/
Last posted 512K, now the estimates are from 510K - 525K.
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POTC has blogged about the government smoothing effect before and we remind again: the tremendous gov't spending will create many public jobs, whether in education, health and human services, transportation, energy, or labor/infrastucture, more gov't jobs are definitely coming: http://www.stimuluswatch.org/project/by_state/
Yet the long-term impact this un-American governmnet spending paradigm will have on the all important private sector is reason to be very concerned...
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The Obama Administration is not completely stupid; dangerous to capitalism a resounding yes, but completely ignorant in their anti free-market agenda, no. The Administration realizes a controlled drip of stimulus money will be necessary to have a better chance at stabilizing the financial markets and hence increasing their chances of winning the midterm November 2010 elections.

Even the slightest passage of bills with the word "public" attached, i.e. public health care option, could envelope our free-market system after the midterm elections. Give them an inch and they'll want a mile, caution. Hopefully more Americans are paying attention to what is standing before us.
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Inside this highly impressive 8 month technical bounce, it is difficult to short the S&P, yet there are many V-shaped stocks that could come tumbling on account of uncertain and dislocated fundamentals looking-out 6 months - 1 year (ISRG is one example).
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Yet we feel this 8 month liquidity rush into stocks could continue as this Administration is only in the infancy stages of a $787B stimulus - spend. Trading has never felt so plastic and difficult to time.
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POTC predicts weekly claims continue their trajectory down due to the government smoothing effect. As that 500K mark is broken on November 26th, a Santa Clause rally could take a firm grip through year-end, forcing shorts to cover and underperforming money managers to buy at bloated prices.
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An S&P spike may well occur through year end and shock bears and bulls alike. POTC would consider S&P 1,300 the ultimate Obama spending spike and unsustainable technical level, presenting the best shorting opportunity since 2000.
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Go To Jail, Do Not Pass Go; from the Desk of the Dictator of the Partisan House, Nancy "Gov't Monopoly" Pelosi

http://republicans.waysandmeans.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=153583

The Obama Administration's Fiscal Policies Have Revealed a Golden Cross... (CNBC's Larry Kudlow Gets It)

Gold will be in a bull market as long as the Obama Administration pushes for and legislates anti free-market fiscal and social policies. The Gold/S&P Cross has occurred and POTC believes it is due to the looming socioeconomic ramifications of a big government. One troy ounce of gold now costs more than one share of S&P 500 index.
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POTC warned of this day several weeks ago, please verify the blog archive on October 6th and 7th. Our team feels vindicated as equities sold off and lost most of their October gains on the same exact day the "Golden Cross" occurred. Yet many CNBC talking heads continue to blow their bull horns as if pending anti free-market legislation did not matter.
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Shame on Jim Cramer and everyone who is turning a blind eye to the increased regulations and controls on the horizon. The insistence of the Obama Administration that government is the solution to all our problems is troubling and only developing, as the donkey majority is behaving very aggressively in favor of a centralized government model.
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Every private sector is at great risk of having to change their business models as a result of higher taxes and government fees. Whether Public Health Care, Energy Cap and Trade, Autos, Banking, Insurance, or Employee Free Choice Act/Card Check (EFCA), POTC agrees with Larry Kudlow's blunt admittance on Thursday, Oct 22nd: "I Cannot be a Long-Run Bull on the Stock Market".
http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com/
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