p
..
Over the Long-Run,
Darwinian Markets are the Best Path to Socioeconomic Prosperity~
Friday, July 30, 2010
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
First Solar Clouds the Truth, Oy Vey ...
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*DJ First Solar Raises FY10 View To EPS $7.00-EPS $7.40 > Prior midpoint was $7.05/share. FSLR decided to add the word "Raises" in the EPS blurb but did not use the word "Lower" in the Sales forecast: *DJ First Solar Sees FY10 Sales $2.5B-$2.6B>
Prior Sales guidance was $2.6B - $2.7B. POTC does not believe that's a fair way to represent the facts to the public firing squad.
We expect Wall Street analysts to call FSLR out on what we view as a grammatical game of half-truths. POTC is upset with FSLR's PR team.
Wall Street analysts should catch this small yet important nugget. FSLR continues to string along expectations while having negative growth in EPS. EPS fell 13% from last year's Q2. We hope FSLR is downgraded in the morning by several sober analysts.
Most analysts on the conference call sounded downbeat and suspicious, only one actually said "congratulations", not a good omen for bulls.
POTC to FSLR: where's the growth in EPS? Why pay 20X for a company that is negative 13% from last year's Q2 and has lowered Sales twice within the last four months? We think the options will be fine, and we would add in the morning IF GDP comes in below 2.5%. POTC's target is < $120 by August expiration.
And Sales are pegged at $2.5B - $2.6B for FY10. That means they will have to come with two consecutive quarters of $697M in Sales. There was Chicago coach in the mid 1980's named Mike Ditka, he liked using the phrase "who you crappin"?, and it applies here big time.
POTC respectfully asks FSLR execs, just as we called out RIMM at $65+ and it dropped to the $40's and GS from the $160's to the $130's, "Who You Crappin First Solar"?
Q1 Sales were $568M, Q2 $588M = $1,156B, so if we subtract that number from the midpoint guidance of $2.55B, we get $1,394B/2 Q's (Q3 and Q4). FSLR would have to post $697M in Q3 and Q4, after just posting $568 in Q1 and $588 in Q2. FSLR, you are definitely not fooling any POTC subscribers.
C'mon Wall Street, it is as simple as that, downgrade the stock based on twisted guidance.
A nice night, morning, and afternoon to all. We truly appreciate your interest and loyalty.
Saturday, July 24, 2010
CME Group Inc. (CME) ...
July 29, 2010 09:32 ET (13:32 GMT)
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CME Group Inc.'s (CME) second-quarter earnings rose 22%, and adjusted results topped analysts' forecasts, as the company again benefited from increased volume.
Chief Executive Craig Donohue noted that volume rose in every asset class amid "highly volatile conditions."
We sent the in depth Psychological Financial Fusion (PFF ratio) Option Trade Alert on CME Group Inc. (CME) today, Wednesday, July 28th., at 11ET.
CME will release earnings before market open on Thursday, July 29th., and First Solar (FSLR) after market close on Thursday. The FSLR Trade Alert will be sent to all subscribers at 11ET on Thursday, July 29th.
CME Group Inc. operates the CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX self-regulatory exchanges. CME provides a range of products available across various asset classes, including: futures and options on futures based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, metal, and alternative investment products, such as weather and real estate. The company offers various products that provide a means for hedging, speculation, and asset allocation relating to the risks associated with interest rate sensitive instruments, equity ownership, changes in the value of foreign currency, and changes in the prices of commodities.
CME Analyst Coverage: Roger Freeman of Barclays Capital, Brad Hintz of Bernstein Research, Mike Vinciquerra of BMO, James Mitchell of Buckingham Research, Rob Rutschow of Calyon Securities, Donald Fandetti of Citigroup, Howard Chen of Credit Suisse, Michael Carrier of Deutsche Bank North America, Daniel Harris of Goldman Sachs, Ken Worthington of J.P. Morgan, Dan Fannon Jefferies & Company, David Scharf of JMP Securities, Niamh Alexander of KBW, Edward Ditmire of Macquarie Research, Celeste Mellet Brown of Morgan Stanley, Patrick O'Shaughnessy of Raymond James, Rich Repetto of Sandler O'Neill, Matthew Heinz of Stifel Nicolaus, Jonathan Casteleyn of Susquehanna, Chris Allen of Ticonderoga Securities, Alex Kramm of UBS Investment Research, and Mark Lane of William Blair.
CME's Live Conference Call link for Thursday, July 29th at 8:30 AM ET
POTC will conclude Q2 with First Solar (FSLR) on Thursday, July 29th at 11ET. FSLR willl hold their live earnings conference call at 4:30ET after market close, here's the link.
If you're a Quarterly or Yearly subscriber, you will receive both of these aggressive option Trade Alerts. If you're not yet a subscriber, please use the Paypal link in the right margin.
After you subscribe, you'll enjoy our personalized e-mail services. The Psychology of the Call team (POTC) is excited to offer every subscriber discreet advice and assistance via e-mail. Often times with fresh and bold perspective.
If you're a subscriber, Congratulations! You've witnessed our ability to call direction a lot more right than wrong. This quarter we've called the direction of GOOG, AAPL, and AMZN correctly, and we believe a 3-3 record ahead of earnings reports is no coincidence. Our PFF ratio Trade Alerts are extremely time consuming. Rarely does POTC get hoodwinked by the prevailing wisdoms of talking heads and herd mentality.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
AMZN Dropped and Popped; Many Lessons Learned ..
DJ Amazon Cut To Average From Above Average By Caris & Co
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 23, 2010 09:57 ET (13:57 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- 09 57 AM EDT 07-23-10
DJ Amazon Raised To Buy From Hold By S&P Equity
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 23, 2010 11:20 ET (15:20 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 11 20 AM EDT 07-23-10
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Aren't a subscriber to this blog yet? Please sign-up through PayPal in the right margin and start an electronic experience you'll truly enjoy. Making money in individual stock options takes many days of research and years of trading experience; Psychology of the Call team (POTC) you'll learn, offers you both.
You have the choice of buying:
1] An individual Option Trade Alert = $50.00
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[if you sign-up midstream, anything less than 5 alerts will rollover to the next Q.]
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We do 5 Option Trade Alerts per Q, and occasionally an extra one. So Yearlies are guaranteed 20 Trade Alerts, but may receive up to 24. At 24 Trade Alerts X $50.00, that would cost $1,200, making the Yearly subscription of $700.00 the best deal in PayPal.
We know our services are more valuable than the most widely followed ones like: Motley Fool, which was bearish on AAPL ahead of the report (cited in our Trade Alert), and Mad Money's Jim Cramer, who is hogtied by parent of CNBC GE and unable to recommend buying puts and or shorting stocks, even to accredited investors who enjoy the thrill of an aggressive trade. POTC to Jim Cramer: "There are two sides to the market Jim, you are doing your viewers of Mad Money a huge disservice by only recommending they go long."
The brain behind this blog has traded stocks for nearly three decades, experienced the 1987 crash with an account at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner, and Smith, and he has thrived after arguably the best financial industry product training at Morgan Stanley (MS). Adam is the backbone of the POTC team, and he welcomes you.
We have made it this far with literally NO advertising, we don't even accept GOOG's ads on the blog, as we find them offensive and too liberal for our tastes. Our success to this point spans many states and many countries. We know this has evolved due to our track record of directional market and option calls, and referrals as a result. Most would agree this speaks to our ferocious work ethic, successful calls, and credibility.
Our current subscribers have made triple-digit profits with GOOG and AAPL to start Q2, this hard on the heels of great successes in Q1. We are confident you will be pleasantly surprised by our one-on-one personal advice and assistance; discreet and electronic.
~Let's Roll Down Wall Street Together, Welcome~
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Stock Option Trade Alert on Apple (AAPL): Tuesday, 7/20, at 11ET ..
In the Trade Alert, we highlighted that GOOG's SG&A costs would hurt Q2 performance, and that is the buzz on Wall Street post report.
A well-respected technology analyst, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, appeared on CNBC's Fast Money post report and mentioned GOOG's fate could be going the way of MSFT: a company in transition as growth slows. The law of "big numbers" is a good way to explain the corporate dilemma GOOG is facing. Going from today's $157B ($494/share) market cap to $250B ($787.00/share) will not be easy.
We agree with Gene Munster in the short-run at least, and believe the next few quarters will be marred by more difficult Q/Q and Y/Y comparable earnings, as increased spending crimps bottom line/profits/earnings per share.
POTC estimates ramping legal costs associated with battles over privacy as related to search and collection and storage of user data, these will be awfully high hurdles GOOG could stumble on in the weeks and months ahead. And if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) gets involved, a lot of GOOG's talent could exit for greener (less regulated) technology pastures. Because so far, GOOG has been very high up on the list the brainiest prefer.
Thanks to all who signed-up in the last few days, we truly appreciate your trust. We are always excited to receive your questions via e-mail and look-forward to answering anything related to the politics of money, banking, and trading.
Form 10-K link for AAPL, filed on January 25, 2010:
AAPL's Conference Call link for Q3's financial results, 5:00pm ET, Tuesday, July 20:
PFF Ratio Alert for GOOG available Now
If you would like to receive the Alert, please use the PayPal link.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Q2 Stock Option Trade Alert Focus List: GOOG Thursday at 11ET
GOOG will be the first Q2 PFF ratio Trade Alert: Thursday, July 15th at 11ET. Please be prepared if you are a subscriber, and sign-up today if you aren't.
POTC thanks every subscriber who is enjoying our one-on-one advice and assistance via e-mail. We are humbled by your trust.
Subscribers hail from: United States, India, United Kingdom, Australia, Hong Kong, South Korea, Russia, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Brazil, Phillipines, Spain, Canada, Japan, Mexico, and China.
PFF ratio Trade Alerts require intense motivation, many 12+ hour days of study (financial statement analysis, key developments, technicals, politics, and psychology of all of these factors), with a forward-looking and contrarian perspective. We promise to send non-biased, well-researched, educational, and most importantly profitable trades.
POTC assures you we'll remain firmly rooted in principles of free-market capitalism as the motivational driver looking out to the 2010 mid-term elections. We believe a combination of smaller Govt and lower taxes is the panacea to societal woes; a bloated Gov't only ensures a bumpy, dead-end, and liberal road to laziness.
~ We Welcome You ~
~ Let's Roll Down Wall Street Together ~
The entire Psychology of the Call team.
Friday, May 28, 2010
Trade Alert Sent at 10:59 ET to Quarterly and Yearly Subscribers ...
If interested in future Trade Alerts, please sign-up for our services through Paypal in the left margin.
If only interested in free daily technical snapshots on SNDA via e-mail, click here.
-SNDA's Form 20-F filing for fiscal 2009- (20-F filing for foreign companies is equivalent to the U.S. SEC Form 10-K).
Firm - Analyst - Contact Information (International)
AURIGA - Tian X. Hou - (+1) 212-231-9039
BNP Paribas - Yvonne Yang - (+86) 21-6096-9046
Brean Murray - Andrey Glukhov - (+1) 212-702-6602
Citigroup - Alicia Yap - (+852) 2501-2794
CLSA - James Lee - (+1) 646-596-2409
Credit Suisse - Wallace Cheung - (+852) 2101-7090
Deutsche Bank AG - Alan Hellawell - (+852) 2203-6240
Goldman Sachs- Kathy Chen - (+852) 2978-1291
HSBC Global Research - Tucker Grinnan - (+852) 2822-4686
J.P. Morgan - Dick Wei - (+852) 2800-8535
Morgan Stanley - Richard Ji - (+852) 2848-6926
Nomura - Jin Yoon - (+852) 2252-6204
Oppenheimer & Co. - Paul Keung - (+1) 212-667-7789
Pacific Crest - Evan Wilson - (+1) 503-727-0635
Piper Jaffray - Vivian B. LI - (+852) 3189-3102
RBS - Wendy Huang - (+852) 2700-5439
Roth Capital - Adam Krejcik - (+1) 949-720-7187
Susquehanna Financial Group - C. Ming Zhao - (+1) 610-747-1632
ThinkEquity - Atul Bagga - (+1) 415-249-6362
UBS - Gary Ngan - (+852) 2971-8317
Wall Street Strategies - Brian Sozzi - (+1) 212-612-7557
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Prakash Loungani: Home Prices Still Have Far To Fall ...
But International Monetary Fund economist Prakash Loungani has found plenty of reasons to remain glum.
Loungani, at a National Economists Club luncheon in Washington Thursday, presented his analysis of housing busts since 1970 in the countries that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. His prediction: Home prices will fall much farther and for much longer.
On average, the previous housing slumps lasted 18 quarters, with prices dropping 22% from peak to trough. By contrast, the current housing slump has lasted only 14 quarters, during which prices have dropped just 15%.
But the latest boom was so much bigger than the previous ones that it's logical to anticipate an even more brutal downturn, Loungani argued. Prices rose 113% over 41 quarters, compared with 39% average price increase over 39 quarters seen in the previous booms. Loungani likened the current cycle to a rollercoaster that has roared up a steep hump and now needs to come down again.
"A lot of adjustment has taken place in house prices, so we shouldn't discount that. But it's true that we shouldn't declare victory too soon. We've now had a fresh shock from what's happening in Europe," he said after the luncheon.
Loungani marshaled other evidence that home prices are still inflated. He found that prices in OECD countries in 2009 were substantially out of whack with rents and incomes in those countries, compared to average values from 1970 to 2000. In the long run, he argued, incomes and rents will act as weights on home prices, bringing them back to earth.
Price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios were well above historical values in all OECD countries, except Japan, Germany and Switzerland, according to Loungani's analysis. New Zealand, Australia, the Netherlands and Belgium saw the biggest misalignment with historical price-to-income values, while Canada, Sweden, Norway and Australia saw the largest gaps in price-to-rent values.
Loungani said his analysis of prices and rents in U.S. metro areas suggests that many markets on the West coast and in parts of the Northeast could yet see prices plummet a further 30%-40%.
-By Jessica Holzer, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9228; jessica.holzer@dowjones.com
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=CJuVvg09Q1VH4QJFTkaFfw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 27, 2010 16:25 ET (20:25 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 04 25 PM EDT 05-27-10
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Monday, May 24, 2010
Friday, May 14, 2010
S&P Directional Alerts Sent Every Sunday at 9 PM ET
We understand many of you trade the S&P, whether leveraging E-mini futures contracts or through the cash traded SPY.
We are confident you will find these Direction Alerts valuable in addition to the stock option Trade Alerts.
If you don't trade the S&P directly, anticipating market direction is one of the most important factors that effects your profit and loss line from day to day and week to week.
POTC will continue to add services that are time-sensitive for the aggressive trader. Long-term investors will also find these services helpful as the market never goes in a straight line, yet most traditional financial advisors continue to push buy and hold.
Though we believe there is a place to buy, hold, and reinvest dividends in your Individual Retirement Account (IRA) and traditional cash account, we also know market timing is a deadly good tool very few traditional investors ever advantage.
Congratulations to all who were short the S&P after that 400+ Dow Jones Industrial short covering rally on Monday, May, 10. We were forceful in the quantity and tone of bearishness all week; several POTC subs expressed their gratitude and we are humbled by the complimentary e-mails.
Though we also called the greenback and crude oil correctly (dollar higher and oil lower), we chose to pool our forward-looking wisdoms and focus on short-term (weekly) direction of the S&P.
Quarterly and Yearly subscribers should look-forward to reviewing and profiting from our S&P Directional Alerts every Sunday at 9PM ET.
Only interested in free daily technical updates on the S&P, CLICK HERE
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Alert Sent at 11ET; Closed to New Subscribers After 3ET ...
If you only want free daily technical updates on PWRD via e-mail, please click here.
The Psychology of the Call team (POTC) appreciates every reader, but especially the ones who signed-up and are taking advantage of our personalized e-mail services.
Subscribers are a diverse group: U.S., India, United Kingdom, Australia, Hong Kong, South Korea, Russia, Poland, Italy, Germany, Brazil, and Canada.
A single PFF ratio Trade Alert requires intense motivation, time, fundamental and technical experience, and a forward-looking perspective. We promise to send you non-biased, well-researched, educational, and most importantly money making trades.
POTC assures you we'll remain firmly rooted in principles of free-market capitalism as a motivational driver looking out to the 2010 mid-term elections. We believe a smaller Govt and lower taxes are the panacea to societal problems. A bloated Govt only ensures a bumpy dead-end road that leads to a laziness.
~ We Welcome You, Let's Trade Small and Stay Hedged ~
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Priceline.com Canceled, Subscribers Received an Updated Strategy ..
If you're interested in our PFF ratio Trade Alert (s) and a one-on-one e-mail relationship where you can discreetly ask anything about investing or trading, you've come to the right place.
Only interested in free daily technical updates on PCLN via e-mail? click here and enjoy!
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Alert on Mercadolibre Inc. was Sent and Updated Thursday
If you're interested in receiving via e-mail free technical snapshots of MELI that are updated daily click here.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Bearish on BIDU from $710.00: Two Headline Risks Noted ...
If you're interested in receiving our in-depth PFF ratio Trade Alerts, as well as taking advanatge of a one-on-one e-mail relationship, you've come to the right place. Please feel free to ask us anything about trading and or investing, that's POTC's dna.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
BIG Congratulations to ALL, Patients and Traders Alike !!!
Thursday, April 22, 2010
FSLR Analysis and Update Post Earnings and PFF ratio Explanation ..
Thursday morning before market open breaking news:
*DJ First Solar Raised To Buy From Hold By Deutsche Bank - Briefing.com >FSLR
*DJ First Solar Raised To Outperform From Neutral By Baird
POTC vehemently disagrees with Deutsche Bank and Baird's positive outlooks on FSLR.
POTC sent a follow-up e-mail to all subscribers advising to buy 3.5% of your trading portfolio after FSLR rises the day after earnings, that advice turned out to be excellent when we look back, congrats to all and thanks for the e-mails. Many more good calls are ahead of us. Please tell a friend or family member about our GS short call as well as our short BIDU call at $710 above. PFF ratio involves dozens of hours of conference call rewinds, technical, fundamental, and political/policy analysis (where applicable), and often times hidden psychological facts analysts overlook due to heavy workloads or a monolithic buy and hold mindset.
*DJ First Solar Raised To Buy From Hold By Deutsche Bank - Briefing.com >FSLR
*DJ First Solar Raised To Outperform From Neutral By Baird
POTC vehemently disagrees with Deutsche Bank and Baird's positive outlooks on FSLR.
POTC sent a follow-up e-mail to all subscribers advising to buy 3.5% of your trading portfolio after FSLR rises the day after earnings, that advice turned out to be excellent when we look back, congrats to all and thanks for the e-mails. Many more good calls are ahead of us. Please tell a friend or family member about our GS short call as well as our short BIDU call at $710 above. PFF ratio involves dozens of hours of conference call rewinds, technical, fundamental, and political/policy analysis (where applicable), and often times hidden psychological facts analysts overlook due to heavy workloads or a monolithic buy and hold mindset.
RIMM was a perfect example of analysts "falling in love" with a heavyweight type of stock, the 5th Commandment teaches us to never behave that way. Then we witnessed their frustrations as they raised price targets after RIMM missed the quarter. BIDU was an example in the opposite direction, and POTC was correct in both cases. The 6th Commandment states, "never accept excuses from management", except for Goldman's Ms. Jankowski, most of the analysts went in and stayed bullish on RIMM.
BIDU was an excellent PFF ratio candidate in that many analysts and talking heads missed gaping technical, fundamental, and political facts in our professional blogging opinion (iopbo).
CNBC's, Fast Money program, Tim Seymour recommended selling BIDU ahead of their last earnings report, and we recommended the $460 calls when shares were at $430. Pete Najarian was bullish on RIMM ahead of earnings as well, both lost money and our PFF ratio trade alerts proved correct. Credit to Tim Seymour on RIMM though, he was negative ahead of the Q4 report and remains negative.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Goldman Sachs Related Stories and Conference Call (CC) Notes ...
Breaking 
Wednesday: *DJ Ex-Paulson Co. Exec Pellegrini Told ACA Paulson Would Take Short Position In Abacus-CNBC- POTC does not think the..court..of..public..opinion will stabilize..GS. *SEC..Schapiro:.Goldman Charges
Wednesday: *DJ Ex-Paulson Co. Exec Pellegrini Told ACA Paulson Would Take Short Position In Abacus-CNBC- POTC does not think the..court..of..public..opinion will stabilize..GS. *SEC..Schapiro:.Goldman Charges Absolutely Not Politically Motivated
*Goldman.,Lawyer..Has..Been..Contacted By The FSA;
Not Sure If Tourre Worked On AIG CDOs;
No Current Intent For Blankfein To Address Charges
April 20, 2010 10:10 ET 13-43ET
Not Sure If Tourre Worked On AIG CDOs;
No Current Intent For Blankfein To Address Charges
April 20, 2010 10:10 ET 13-43ET
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
10: 10 AM EDT 04-20-10
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday signaled he would be willing to break up big financial firms if their size poses a threat to the entire economy.10: 10 AM EDT 04-20-10
CC Notes:
GS's General Counsel Greg Palm was the pivot man on the CC. POTC feels he did what most GC's do, offer very few new details, and why should he. Palm did his job, but we don't feel great post CC since it's not the dollar amount(s) that could be settled, but the paradigm shift from an investing banking Wall Street to a more traditional banking model the Administration seems to be pushing for, as well as reputational damage, the fact there are other choices like Barclays or JPMorgan, or even Bank of America, corporations can take their business elsewhere as the Govt has endless funds to drag and attempt to expose Goldman. GS lost more than $100M investing in ABACUS, clients will support us with good service, always have option to settle, but it now looks like we're heading to trial vs the SEC, most mortgage-backed securities went bust in '06 anyway (so they don't feel it mattered which securities were picked), No idea whether ABACUS knew Paulson was shorting, (Palm did not disclose litigation reserves or other Wells notices when asked); POTC guesstimates there could be more, but GS has no legal basis to disclose new investigations unless their cost is estimated to affect at least 10% of firm capital > $86B.
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NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) co-General Counsel Greg Palm said Tuesday that the investment bank would not intentionally mislead clients, and would "be the first" to condemn any employees that went against that credo.
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Palm, speaking on Goldman's conference call, said the company would take action to punish deceptive employees. He said "our responsibilities as a financial intermediary require it, and our commitment to integrity and the firm's business principles demand it."
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The Securities and Exchange Commission accused the company and one of its executives, Fabrice Tourre, of defrauding investors by peddling a financial product it knew was doomed to fail as the housing market collapsed. Goldman maintains it has done nothing wrong and is fighting the charges.
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Tourre is currently out on indefinite leave, but has not been suspended by Goldman.
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Palm also said that Goldman lost upwards of $100 million on the transaction being investigated by the government. It previously said it was about $90 million.
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In addition, Palm said the case is heading toward a trial at this point, but that there is certainly the possibility that Goldman could settle if both sides come into agreement.
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"We don't know how this case is going to unfold at this point, its very early on," he said.
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-By Joe Bel Bruno, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2469; joe.belbruno@dowjones.com
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=bYHaTDNSXjSTeeQ8giQ9VA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 20, 2010 08:56 ET (12:56 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 08 56 AM EDT 04-20-10
GS CEO Lloyd Blankfein will and wes a no show on the live 8ET conference call, POTC thinks that's a negative development for longs. Since Lloyd stuck behind Fabrice Tourre, we feel neither man will be with GS by year end. Fabricce is most certainly under extreme pressure to talk to regulators now, and given the seriousness of the charges, fraud, it's possibile he cooperates with the S.E.C.
Securities and Exchange Chairwoman Mary Schapiro's roots go back to President Ronald Reagan, 1988. The vote to press fraud charges was 3-2 (3 democrats/2 republicans), with Schapiro's vote deciding. CNBC reported on how this vote broke down and the fact Schapiro is a democrat, yet they failed to mention her experience. Though this looks like blatant partisanship, alleging fraud without legal merit is reckless behavior and cause for serious backlash, but especially for a person with 22 years experience. Click here to view Mary Schapiro's bio.
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Goldman Sachs Conference Call to Announce First Quarter 2010 Results
April 19, 2010
Please note new time:
Conference Call now scheduled for 8:00 am (ET)
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NEW YORK, NY, April 19, 2010, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) plans to announce its first quarter 2010 financial results on Tuesday, April 20th in a release that will be issued at approximately 7:00 am (ET). The press release will also be available on the firm’s web site, http://www.gs.com
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A conference call to discuss the firm’s results, outlook and related matters, will now be held 8:00 am (ET). The call will be open to the public.
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David Viniar, Chief Financial Officer, will discuss first quarter earnings and related issues, and Greg Palm, Co-General Counsel, will address the recent SEC complaint against Goldman Sachs.
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Members of the public who would like to listen to the conference call should dial 1-888-281-7154 (U.S. domestic) and 1-706-679-5627 (international). The number should be dialed at least 10 minutes prior to the start of the conference call. The conference call will also be accessible as an audio webcast through the Investor Relations section of our web site, www.gs.com/shareholders. There is no charge to access the call. For those unable to listen to the live broadcast, a replay will be available on our web site or by dialing 1-800-642-1687
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(U.S. domestic) or 1-706-645-9291 (international) passcode number 65384365, beginning approximately two hours after the event.
This press release supersedes the March 25, 2010 announcement.
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POTC will be doing the following three trade alerts this Quarter: Mercadolibre (MELI), earnings post after market close on Thursday, May 6th), First Solar (FSLR's earnings post after close on Wednesday, April 28th), Baidu (BIDU) dates not yet confirmed.
If you're interested in receiving the in depth PFF trade alerts, click the Paypal link in the left margin. POTC appreciates every reader, but special thanks to the ones who signed-up our pay for play services. We are excited by the number of subscribers to date, and we value each one. A single trade alert requires intense motivation, experience, and smart effort. We promise to remain humble and focused with this increased workload. Our mission is to send you well-researched, educational, and most importantly, money making trades. We assure that we'll continue to be firmly rooted in the principles of free-market capitalism as the motivational driver looking-forward to the 2010 mid-term and 2012 Presidential election. Smaller Gov't and lower taxes are the answer to prosperity; bloated Govt only paves the "community" road to a lazy society. Let's Rally!
PFF ratio involves dozens of hours of conference call rewinds, technical, fundamental, and political/policy analysis, and often times hidden psychological facts WS analysts can overlook due to heavy workloads or a monolithic buy and hold mindset.
RIMM was a perfect example of Wall Street (WS) analysts "falling in love" with a heavyweight stock, the 5th Commandment, then exhibiting frustration by raising price targets after a missed quarter. BIDU was an example in the opposite direction, and POTC was correct in both cases. The 6th Commandment states, "never accept excuses from management", except for Goldman's Ms. Jankowski, most of WS went in and stayed bullish on RIMM.
BIDU was an excellent PFF ratio candidate in that many analysts and talking heads missed gaping technical, fundamental, and political facts in our professional blogging opinion (iopbo).
CNBC's, Fast Money program, Tim Seymour recommended selling BIDU ahead of earnings as we recommended the $460 calls when shares were at $430. Pete Najarian was bullish on RIMM ahead of earnings last week, both lost money as our alerts proved correct. Credit to Tim Seymour on RIMM, he was negative ahead of the Q4 report.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Post Earnings Facts and Thoughts on Research in Motion (RIMM) ...
*DJ (Dow Jones) Research In Motion Cut To Sell From Neutral By Goldman Sachs (GS)
Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM, RIM.T) was cut to sell from neutral by Goldman's Simona Jankowski. Simona cut her price target from $73 to $65:
"its products will increasingly lose differentiation as the focus shifts from email, where RIM leads all competitors, to applications, where RIM lags both the iPhone from Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Android, an operating system of Google Inc. (GOOG). With its North American business already in decline, the broker doesn't expect international strength to be enough of an offset."
-By Steve Goldstein, 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
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POTC predicts the stock begins closing below $70 shortly, and June expiration is many weeks away; hold the RIMM Puts and enjoy the technical control as share price erodes under the all important 200 day line. We are very satisfied shares broke our way, realizing the last 8 Wall Street firms either Upgraded or Initiated coverage with Buy ratings in the past several weeks:
Mar 26, '10 JP Morgan Upgraded to Overweight
Mar 25, '10 Rodman & Renshaw Initiated Mkt Perform
Mar 19, '10 Wunderlich Initiated Buy
Mar 8, '10 BMO Capital Markets Upgraded to Outperform
Feb 23, '10 Stifel Nicolaus Initiated Buy
Feb 12, '10, RBC Capital Mkts Upgraded to Outperform Top Pick
Feb 12, '10 Wedbush Morgan Initiated Outperform
Feb 1, '10 Standpoint Research Upgraded to Buy
We humbly ask you to tell a friend and family member about our efforts, perhaps only Jim Cramer's team works as smart and hard as POTC, you decide. Are we right all the time, of course not. 'Butt' Capitalist Pig Bob, our Chief Political Correspondent on Facebook, has sent us several positive comments from the pigsty et large, we thank you for them again. Lastly, apologies for butchering RIMM's Co-CEO "Balsillie's" name in the PFF ratio option trade alert, yet he butchered Q4 revenues as well as Q1 guidance in our professional opinion.
POTC appreciates and respects having you as a reader, subscriber, and trader. Our mission is to continue to cut through all the CNBC and Bloomberg talking head hype and educate you whether beginner or expert. We are very open to your general input as well as suggestions on stocks you'd like us to analyze.
A beautiful Spring Easter weekend to every Christian reader in the U.S. and all 90+ countries. Hope has sprung and purple is the symbolic color of the season. Celebrate the promise of eternal life, as many believe our lives involve more than mere physical existence and death. Faith, hope, and the American dream of free-market capitalism are powerful drivers our entire team shares.
Sincerely, the entire Psychology of the Call team (POTC)
http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com
For a more in depth opinion on RIMM post earnings, please see the added commentary in the posting directly below.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Option Trade Alert for Research in Motion With Post CC Commentary Added ...
POTC believes RIMM will miss its Q1 guidance by a country mile, it makes very little sense for them to have guided so high, none. We stand behind our June $65 put recommendation. RIMM missed pre-announced Q4 sales guidance just a couple weeks before Q4 ended ($4.1B - $4.3B), actual Q4 sales were $4.08B. Now we're supposed to believe their forward Q1 global growth assumption that'll drive $4.2B - $4.4B in sales? And WHY is RIMM addressing 2011 when we know they had problems guiding us a few weeks before the end of this last Q4? Here are two conference call blurbs we find executively funny: *DJ RIM: Tremendous Opportunity For Sustained Growth In FY2011. AND *DJ RIM's Balsillie: "We've Had Competitors Come And Go"
POTC doesn't envision AAPL and GOOG, armed with nearly $25B each to go anywhere. And WHY is Balsillie and his family dumping shares as a very large share buyback is in force? RIMM bought back 12.3M, or $775M worth of stock in the last Q, and that added $.03 to that $1.27 bottom line. Our dilemma is Balsillie selling shares while dismissing AAPL and GOOG as competitors that'll just "go away"? Perhaps Canadian business psychology is different than the U.S.
Co-CEO's pictured on Blackberry are Balsillie and Lazaridis from left to right.
RIMM execs are either misleading analysts or POTC is spending 10 - 18 hours a day researching on a single brain cell, you decide. For a free and ongoing technical opinion on RIMM via e-mail, click here and enjoy!
If interested in receiving our PFF ratio option trade alert for RIMM, send an e-mail with "subscribe" to: Psychologyofthecall@gmail.com
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
SCARY Healthcare Facts from a Subscriber named Carl; CPB Insisted Posting ASAP; Life & Death Issues at Stake ...
I ask you respectfully and as a patriotic American to look at the following troubling lines that I have read in the bill. You cannot possibly believe that these proposals are in the best interests of the country and our fellow citizens.
Page 22 of the HC Bill: Mandates that the Govt will audit books of all employers that self-insure.
Page 30 Sec 123 of HC bill: THERE WILL BE A GOVT COMMITTEE that decides what treatments/benefits you get.
Page 29 lines 4-16 in the HC bill: YOUR HEALTH CARE IS RATIONED.
Page 42 of HC Bill: The Health Choices Commissioner will choose your HC benefits for you. You have no choice.
Page 50 Section 152 in HC bill: HC will be provided to ALL non-US citizens, illegal or otherwise.
Page 58 HC Bill: Govt will have real-time access to individuals' finances & a 'National ID Health card' will be issued! (Papers please)
Page 59 HC Bill lines 21-24: Govt will have direct access to your bank accounts for elective funds transfer. (Time for more cash and carry)
Page 65 Sec 164: Is a payoff subsidized plan for retirees and their families in unions & community organizations like the supposed defunct ACORN.
Page 84 Sec 203 HC bill: Govt mandates ALL benefit packages for private HC plans in the 'Exchange.'
Page 85 Line 7 HC Bill: Specifications of Benefit Levels for Plans -- The Govt will ration your health care.
Page 91 Lines 4-7 HC Bill: Govt mandates linguistic appropriate services. (Translation: illegal aliens.)
Page 95 HC Bill Lines 8-18: The Govt will use groups (i.e. ACORN & Americorps to sign up individuals for Govt HC plan.
Page 85 Line 7 HC Bill: Specifications of Benefit Levels for Plans. (AARP members - your health care WILL be rationed)
Page 102 Lines 12-18 HC Bill: Medicaid eligible individuals will be automatically enrolled in Medicaid. (No choice.)
Page 12 4 lines 24-25 HC: No company can sue GOVT on price fixing. No "judicial review" against Govt monopoly.
Page 127 Lines 1-16 HC Bill: Doctors/ American Medical Association - The Govt will tell YOU what salary you can make.
Page 145 Line 15-17: An Employer MUST auto-enroll employees into public option plan. (NO choice)
Page 126 Lines 22-25: Employers MUST pay for HC for part-time employees ANDtheir families. (Employees shouldn't get excited about this as employers will be forced to reduce its work force, benefits, and wages/salaries to cover such a huge expense.)
Page 149 Lines 16-24: ANY Employer with payroll 401k & above who does not provide public option will pay 8% tax on all payroll! (See the last comment in parenthesis.)
Page 150 Lines 9-13: A business with payroll between $251K & $401K who doesn't provide public option will pay 2-6% tax on all payroll.
Page 167 Lines 18-23: ANY individual who doesn't have acceptable HC according to Govt will be taxed 2.5% of income.
Page 170 Lines 1-3 HC Bill: Any NONRESIDENT Alien is exempt from individual taxes. (Americans will pay.) (Like always)
Page 195 HC Bill: Officers & employees of the GOVT HC Admin.. will have access to ALL Americans' finances and personal records. (I guess so they can 'deduct' their fees)
Page 203 Line 14-15 HC: "The tax imposed under this section shall not be treated as tax." (Yes, it really says that!) ( a fee instead)
Page 239 Line 14-24 HC Bill: Govt will reduce physician services for Medicaid Seniors. (Low-income and the poor are affected.)
Page 241 Line 6-8 HC Bill: Doctors: It doesn't matter what specialty you have trained yourself in -- you will all be paid the same! (Just TRY to tell me that's not Socialism!)
Page 253 Line 10-18: The Govt sets the value of a doctor's time, profession, judgment, etc. (Literally-- the value of humans.)
Page 265 Sec 1131: The Govt mandates and controls productivity for "private" HC industries.
Page 268 Sec 1141: The federal Govt regulates the rental and purchase of power driven wheelchairs.
Page 272 SEC. 1145: TREATMENT OF CERTAIN CANCER HOSPITALS - Cancer patients - welcome to rationing.
Page 280 Sec 1151: The Govt will penalize hospitals for whatever the Govt deems preventable (i.e...re-admissions).
Page 298 Lines 9-11: Doctors: If you treat a patient during initial admission that results in a re-admission -- the Govt will penalize you.
Page 317 L 13-20: PROHIBITION on ownership/investment. (The Govt tells doctors what and how much they can own)
Page 317-318 lines 21-25, 1-3: PROHIBITION on expansion. (The Govt is mandating that hospitals cannot expand.)
Page 321 2-13: Hospitals have the opportunity to apply for exception BUT community input is required. (Just as ACORN)
Page 335 L 16-25 Pg 336-339: The Govt mandates establishment of=2 outcome-based measures. (HC the way they want -- rationing.)
Page 341 Lines 3-9: The Govt has authority to disqualify Medicare Advance Plans, HMOs, etc. (Forcing people into the Govt plan)
Page 354 Sec 1177: The Govt will RESTRICT enrollment of 'special needs people!' Unbelievable!
Page 379 Sec 1191: The Govt creates more bureaucracy via a "Tele-Health Advisory Committee." (Can you say HC by phone?)
Page 425 Lines 4-12: The Govt mandates "Advance-Care Planning Consult." (Think senior citizens end-of-life patients.)
Page 425 Lines 17-19: The Govt will instruct and consult regarding living wills, durable powers of attorney, etc. (And it's mandatory)
Page 425 Lines 22-25, 426 Lines 1-3: The Govt provides an "approved" list of end-of-life resources; guiding you in death. (Also called 'assisted suicide.')(Sounds like Soylent Green to me.)
Page 427 Lines 15-24: The Govt mandates a program for orders on "end-of-life." (The Govt has a say in how your life ends)
Page 429 Lines 1-9: An "advanced-care planning consultant" will be used frequently as a patient's health deteriorates.
Page 429 Lines 10-12: An "advanced care consultation" may include an ORDER for end-of-life plans.. (AN ORDER TO DIE FROM THE GOVERNMENT?!?)
Page 429 Lines 13-25: The GOVT will specify which doctors can write an end-of-life order.. (I wouldn't want to stand before God after getting paid for THAT job!)
Page 430 Lines 11-15: The Govt will decide what level of treatment you will have at end-of-life! (Again -- no choice!)
Page 469: Community-Based Home Medical Services = Non-Profit Organizations.
Page 489 Sec 1308: The Govt will cover marriage and family therapy. (Which means Govt will insert itself into your marriage even.)
Page 494-498: Govt will cover Mental Health Services including defining, creating, and rationing those services.
Senator, I guarantee that I personally will do everything possible to inform patients and my fellow physicians about the dangers of the proposed bills you and your colleagues are debating.
Furthermore, if you vote for a bill that enforces socialized medicine on the country and destroys the doctor-patient relationship, I will do everything in my power to make sure you lose your job in the next election.
Respectfully,
Stephen E. Fraser, MD
Dear POTC Reader,
We urge you to use the power that you were born with to circulate these facts to as many friends and family as possible. Only the Power of the People can stop this unethical Bill from passing.
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Friday, March 12, 2010
Nike's Forgiveness of Tiger Woods Could Drive Shares to Screaming New Heights; no Climax in Site ...
NKE's support of Tiger is turning out to be nothing short of genius.
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Though POTC has never been a huge fan of Tiger or NKE's products, we know the last few months have made Tiger more human, strengthening NKE's brand recognition.
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In the past year, NKE has been as low as $42.11 and today hitting its high at $69+, go figure, as Tiger promises an Augusta National Masters comeback next month in Georgia.
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For a free and ongoing technical snapshot of NKE, click here and enjoy. POTC guesstimates shares will trend toward $80 as Tiger returns, and IF Tiger wins Augusta, NKE could hit PAR at $100/share; consider yourself FOREwarned ahead of this sexy tour!
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We hope you found the Psychology of this Call interesting, funny, and educational.
http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Effects of Presidente Obama's Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) on FedEx (FDX) and Boeing (BA) ..
By Josh Mitchell
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
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WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--FedEx Corp. (FDX) Chief Executive Fred Smith said Wednesday the company would be forced to pull back investments in its air-service unit if the U.S. Congress passes a bill making it easier to unionize FedEx.
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Smith, in Washington this week to lobby lawmakers, also renewed threats to cancel a multibillion-dollar plan to purchase 15 Boeing Co. (BA) cargo planes if the bill becomes law. The provision, pushed by FedEx rival United Parcel Service Inc., is attached to a House-passed bill to renew the authority of the Federal Aviation Administration.
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The Senate is expected to pass its version of the bill as early as this week, and FedEx is fighting the possibility that the final bill would contain the labor provision.
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Smith said the provision would introduce the prospect of union strikes at local FedEx facilities and ultimately disrupt FedEx's Express unit. The company would then be forced to stop growing the Express unit and invest elsewhere, he said.
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-Josh Mitchell, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-6637
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Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=4LDqOAk9RAxINqusduiZFw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 10, 2010 14:11 ET (19:11 GMT)
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Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 02 11 PM EST 03-10-10
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