Saturday, February 22, 2014

In early March Obama plans to ask Congress to Cut tax advantages of Employer-sponsored retirement accounts for higher-income earners












B.O. wants to limit the value of all tax deductions, defined contribution exclusions and IRA deductions to 28% of income — and include an overall cap on all retirement accounts, including pensions, that could bring in $1 billion a year in new tax revenue, according to a Pensions & Investments report. Companies must now buckle-in for a 1-2 retirement punch.
According to the report, the proposals are designed to direct more of the tax preference for retirement savings toward getting more low- and middle-income people into the habit of saving.
Based on current tax brackets, Pensions & Investments reported that the 28% limit would reduce the tax advantages of retirement savings for people earning more than $183,000 or couples earning more than $225,000. And the overall cap for all tax-preferred retirement accounts would limit them to providing an annual retirement income of $205,000, which would currently cap tax-preferred accounts at $3.4 million, but could go lower as interest rates rise.
So, who might feel the effects of this proposal? Largely, the top 5% of tax payers. According to the Tax Policy Center, a partnership between the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution, there are about 6.07 million Americans who earned above $200,000 in 2011 and they make up the top 4.2% of taxpayers, according to published reports. 
And what do experts have to say about what the president might propose? In the main, they say the rich need not worry that their tax breaks for saving for retirement will be cut.
“We’ve heard these kinds of proposals being discussed in policy circles for a couple of years now,” said Skip Schweiss, president of TD Ameritrade Trust Co. and managing director of TD Ameritrade Institutional. “It would not surprise me to see these ideas become more formalized through President Obama’s 2015 budget proposal.”
But even though experts expect the president to propose reductions to some of the tax advantages for employer-sponsored retirement plans for higher-income earners, few expect any congressional action. “Given the congressional divide, it’s hard to see something like this becoming law, but of course one never knows,” said Schweiss.
From his perspective, Schweiss said there are at least three problems with the proposal that should be considered carefully.
The first, said Schweiss, is that contributions to retirement plans are made on a tax-deferred basis, not a tax-deductible basis. “That is, while I may receive a tax deduction this year for making my contribution, the government will get its money down the road when I withdraw the funds in my retirement years,” he said. “And it will get more, as it will tax the earnings as well as the contributions.”
This stands, Schweiss said, in contrast to deductions like home mortgage interest and employer-sponsored health insurance premium deductions: once those deductions are received by the taxpayer, the government will not realize the tax revenues from those items, ever.
The second consideration, said Schweiss, is that if someone is in an upper-income bracket, say 35%, and only gets a 28% deduction on her retirement plan contributions, she will pay taxes on the other 7% this year, and pay taxes on those funds later when withdrawn in retirement. “So those income dollars would be taxed twice under this type of proposal,” he said.
And a third potential problem, said Schweiss, is that the more restrictions on tax benefits we impose on retirement plans, the less attractive it will become for a business owner to sponsor a plan. “And who loses then?” he asked “The worker, not the business owner.”
Lena Haas, senior vice president of retirement, investing and saving, for E*TRADE Financial, said those in the industry have a sense of what makes for a good individual retirement plan. And President Obama’s proposals might not be in the best interest of savers.
“There are many ways to encourage individuals to save for retirement: through education and guidance, automatic contribution features, or incentives in the form of tax advantages,” said Haas. “A successful plan uses a combination of these. If one of these features is reduced or taken away, these plan designers are going to have to rely more heavily on the other features to drive participation and engagement.”
“In this instance, less incentives means a greater reliance on education, guidance, or automatic contribution features,” Haas said. “Saving for retirement is hard — you can’t expect participants to participate without some sort of a helping hand.”
Others also say keeping tax breaks in place for saving are critical.
“Retirement security is a shared responsibility between government, business, and individual and a system that is designed to motivate all stakeholders will drive the best outcome for Americans to achieve retirement security, said Joe Ready, director of Wells Fargo Institutional Retirement and Trust.
Ready said he’s hopeful there will be a thoughtful approach to strike a balance between the need for Americans to save and the budget deficit. “The reality is that it’s hard to ignore the fact that pretax advantages drives good retirement savings behaviors, and we need to remember that this is a tax deferral, and that once retirees begin to withdraw from their 401(k) accounts, they do pay taxes,” Ready said.
Although there are things that can be improved about the workplace retirement plan, Ready believes that if employees are given access and improve their savings rate, the system can significantly improve.
What sort of laws are really needed?
To be sure, there are new laws that should be proposed. “The U.S. needs more incentives for people to save for retirement, not fewer,” said Schweiss. “To do otherwise is to create yet more pressure on the social safety net down the road.”
In fact, Schweiss noted that we already have just over half of American workers with access to a retirement plan because many small businesses don’t sponsor one. “We should make it less burdensome and less expensive for a small business to allow its employees to save for retirement, not more,” he said.
So what’s needed? Ideas such as the “auto-IRA,” where employers open their payroll system for employees to contribute into an IRA account, would help, said Schweiss. “We know that if an American does not have access to a workplace retirement plan, only about 5% of them will save on their own,” he said. “We need to make it easier, not harder.”
Ready said legislative proposals that leverage the already existing plan designs would be best. “Of the almost 80 million 401(k) participants, 80% of them make less than $100,000 and are significantly benefiting from the 401(k),” he said. “From our research, we’ve seen that people with access to a 401(k) plan have saved three times more than those without access to a plan.”
According to Ready, one good example of changing the 401(k) plan design that is been discussed in the industry and would not greatly impact the middle class would be limiting the pretax deferral amount to $10,000 and then the balance of $7,500 after tax money could go into a Roth 401(k). “This would keep the $17,500 limit and the taxes from the Roth 401(k) would help with the fiscal budget,” he said.
By the way, just 5% of the roughly 60 million 401(k) plan participants contribute the maximum amount to their 401(k), which is $17,500 in 2014 for those under age 50 and $23,000 for those 50 and older. And roughly another 5% would contribute the maximum amount, if their companies let them.
And according to a Vanguard study of 2,000 401(k) plans with 3 million participants, 11% of 401(k) participants contributed the maximum possible amount in 2012. 
No matter what becomes law, Haas had this bit of advice for all: “One thing is clear: we face an uncertain future when it comes to tax treatments of retirement plans,” said Haas. “So in the same way that you want a diversified portfolio of various assets, you also want to consider diversifying your funds among the various retirement account types — taxable, tax-free, and tax deferred — to address that uncertainty.”
This piece is credited to Robert Powell of MarketWatch, February 21, 2014.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

House Leader John Boehner (R) Flaccid Again; S&P blips..









Elephants in the House of Representatives have supposedly folded and dropped their debt ceiling demands of the big Govt Donkeys.  
If nothing changes legislation will advance and Washington's borrowing authority will increase again. Many attributed today's bullish S&P action on this news.  
Most technicians agree that the S&P is short-term Overbought and expect a pullback. 
  • From Low to High the S&P is Up over 4.5% in just 5-trading days 

















Monday, February 3, 2014

Communist Party of China (CPC) Derails U.S. Fed's Manipulative Policies; Futuristic~

Will there be any negative fallout for our money and markets if China's Shanghai
composite continues to break down, our crystal ball says Yes. 

A stock market panic in the Govt influenced Shanghai cross-contaminated other asset classes but specifically the banks; a master Power Grab solution was devised over several-months with the foundation that the CPC held about 23% of outstanding U.S. T-Notes. 






Since the U.S. Fed launched QE in late 2010 the superior performance of the S/P versus the Shanghai has been astounding and not coincidental in our opinion. 

Indirect consequences of hyper U.S. monetary policies are likely part of the reason why the Shanghai is on the verge of crashing to multi-year lows while the U.S. S/P is less than 4% from historic highs. 




  •     U.S. S/P index in green versus China's Govt influenced Shanghai index in blue, a 5-year chart


Chart forSSE Composite Index (000001.SS)

  • The 5-year Shanghai chart 


Chart forSSE Composite Index (000001.SS)

We must pay attention to all U.S. paper assets, but especially the 10-year T-Note the morning after the Shanghai closes below 1,950, an important level of support after 2,000. We'll be monitoring for any signs of stress related to volume, price, and T-Note yield if the Shanghai starts breaking large round-numbers. 

It's possible that no signs of stress appear until 1,900 or even 1,500. Yet our Capitalist Pig Bob is convinced the CPC is more than capable of throwing a U.S. Govt T-Note party on the shores of the East China Sea. This would work to cripple the economy while reasserting the CPC's stranglehold on the mainland's assets and people. 

The Fed under Bernanke has manipulated interest rates and choked off any chance of organic price discovery via an Exchange; some U.S. Exchanges like the Philadelphia have worked efficiently since 1790. 

The argument that Japan is performing QE many times more than the U.S. -on a relative basis- or that Europa's Mario Draghi is on board somehow justifies hyper to the nth degree monetary actions does not stand with any fiscal conservative.  

In a paradoxical twist the communist Chinese Govt is credited with being the most effective Tea Party after they dumped U.S. T-Notes in a staged panic in a Power Grab of the largest 'private/free-market' businesses; this triggered cascading events, nearly dethroning U.S. reserve currency status while rendering the Fed obsolete.

Staring further into our crystal ball we see China blamed it on the Shanghai panic. But in 2023 a Chinese diplomat admitted that the Shanghai crash was an orchestrated event to get retribution for U.S. monetary policies that exacerbated unbearable food and real estate inflation. China was in the early stages of sculpting an economic and global political identity that the red and almighty Govt felt was getting out of their preferred control; the experiment created too many young billionaires who were becoming a real threat to the status quo.  

The emblem of the Communist Party of China.
Today's classic emblem of the Chinese communist party.


POTC-

Saturday, January 4, 2014

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) reports Tuesday, January 4, 2014


  Q4, 2013 
 Earnings Whisper ®: $1.46  
 Average Estimate: $1.30  
  

 


Quarterly Earnings Surprise History
Fiscal
Quarter End
Date
Reported
Earnings
Per Share
Consensus
EPS Forecast

Surprise
September, 201310/11/2013$1.42$1.2711.8%
June, 201307/12/2013$1.60$1.4510.3%
March, 201304/12/2013$1.59$1.3815.2%
December, 201201/16/2013$1.39$1.2015.8%





Sunday, December 15, 2013

Market Cap Reveals Size of a Co; Share Price alone is Incomplete

Apple (AAPL) $500 billion market cap at $555.00/share
Amazon (AMZN) $176 billion market cap at $385.00/share
Baidu.com (BIDU) $60 billion market cap at $172.00/share
Exxon Mobil (XOM) $433 billion market cap at $99.00/share
Facebook (FB) $130 billion market cap at $53.00/share
Google (GOOG) $354 billion market cap at $1,060.00/share
LinkedIn (LNKD) $27 billion market cap at $229.00/share
Netflix (NFLX) $22 billion market cap at $375.00/share
Priceline.com (PCLN) $60 billion market cap at $1,170.00/share
Twitter (TWTR) $38 billion market cap at $70.00/share
Yahoo! (YHOO) $41 billion market cap at $41.00/share

Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying a co’s total shares outstanding X stock price. Stock price alone does not give us any insight to the size of a co unless we know and factor the total # of shares outstanding. 


LNKD at $229.00/share is not worth more than FB at $53.00/share on a market cap basis since FB has a whopping 2.45 billion shares outstanding vs LNKD's 119 million sharesOnly after we factor in shares outstanding can we begin to grasp the true size of a specific co/stock.  


Current market cap classifications:

Mega Cap - market cap of $200 billion and above.
Big Cap - $10 billion - $199.99 billion.  
Mid Cap - $2 billion - $9.99 billion. 
Small Cap - $300 million to $1.99 billion. 
Micro Cap - $50 million to $299.99 million. 
Nano Cap - Under $50 million. 


LNKD and FB are both Big caps but the difference in size, $27 billion vs $130 billion, is hugeAAPL, XOMand GOOG sport Mega caps while AMZN needs to climb $53.00/share to $438.00 in order to graduate from Big to Mega cap. AMZN has 458 million shares outstanding.


Thank you for Reading and Educating

POTC-
http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com


Monday, November 25, 2013

Chinese Qihoo 360 (QIHU) Delivers Excellent Results, Again...

Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. provides Internet and mobile security products in the People’s Republic of China. Its core Internet security products include 360 Safe Guard, a solution for Internet security and system optimization; 360 Anti-Virus, an anti-virus application that uses multiple scan engines to protect users’ computers against various kinds of malware, as well as 360 Mobile Safe, a security program for the Google Android, Apple iOS, and Nokia Symbian smartphone operating systems. The company’s platform products comprise 360 Safe Browser and 360 Speed Browser, which are based on dual-core technologies providing secure browsing and blocking malicious Websites, indentifying them among search results, scanning files downloaded through the browser for security threats, as well as 360 Mobile Browser for the iOS and Android operating systems. The 360 browsers also consist of 360 Personal Start-up Page, which serves as user’s start-up page aggregating preferred Web services and applications; 360 Search, a search engine; and 360 Mobile Assistant, which allows users to browse, search, and obtain various mobile applications for mobile devices. Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. also provides online advertising services, including online marketing services and search referral services; and Internet value-added services comprising the operation of Web games developed by third-parties, remote technical support, and cloud-based services. The company was formerly known as Qihoo Technology Company Limited and changed its name to Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. in December 2010. Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. was founded in 2005 and is based in Beijing, China.
-Total smartphone users of 360 Mobile Safe, Qihoo 360's primary 
mobile security product, reached a record 408 million in Sept, 
2013, compared to 149 million in Sept, 2012. 
-Monthly active users of Qihoo 360's browsers reached a record 
342 million in Sept, 2013, compared to 303 million in Sept, 2012. 
-User penetration of Qihoo 360's browsers was 69% in September 
2013, compared to 65% in September 2012. 

Chart forQihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. (QIHU)


POTC-
http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com

Saturday, November 9, 2013

With New Study, Scientists Try To Drag Drug Trials Into DNA Age

This morning at a meeting in Washington, D.C., researchers from the academia, the Food and Drug Administration, the National Cancer Institute, a leading patient advocacy group and several drug companies are describing a new clinical trial in lung cancer that could fundamentally change the way cancer drugs are studied and approved, speeding medicines that target specific genetic mutations in cancer toward the market and patients.
The study, dubbed “The Master Protocol,” aims to solve a fundamental problem of cancer research in the genomic age. Any one mutation that causes can be extremely rare, affecting perhaps one in 30 or even one in 100 patients. That makes studying a drug to hit that mutation incredibly tough. Sometimes hitting one mutation with one drug may not be enough, meaning that the patient whose cancer could be treated with a drug combination would be even rare.



The situation is “untenable,” says Richard Pazdur, director of the Office of Hematology and Oncology Products in the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research. “Especially with personalized medicine we’re going to be seeing smaller patient numbers and its going to be hard for clinical trials to have access to patients even if they go worldwide.”
The Master Protocol offers a solution. The idea here is to have one over-arching plan (scientists call this a ‘protocol’) for studying lots of drugs. Instead of using one genetic test for each drug, they will use high-throughput DNA sequencing to scan tumors for 16 different genetic abnormalities that might be treated by as many as two dozen different drugs. Then patients will be put into separate studies for each new drug. Those for whom DNA sequencing doesn’t turn up a potential medicine will get a new type of immune system drug, known as a PD-1 or PDL1 inhibitor.
“It changes the idea of one test one drug,” says Roy Herbst, Chief of Medical Oncology, at Yale Cancer Center and the trial’s lead investigator. “That is the future, actually it is the present, it is just the way it has to be done.”
The study will not focus on all cancers, but on squamous cell lung cancer, a form that has proved particularly difficult to treat. 
AmgenAstraZeneca, and AstraZeneca’s MedImmune division have already signed on to provide drugs to the study. If they’re smart, other companies like Merck , Pfizer, and Bristol-Myers Squibb will follow. Other studies have tried to examine multiple drugs at once, but this will be the first one aimed at getting the effective FDA approval.
That the FDA, NCI, and drug companies could all work together is in part because of the efforts of patient advocacy group Friends of Cancer Research and its charismatic leader, Ellen Sigal. She heard the idea discussed at a meeting her group runs with the Brookings Institution in D.C., and pushed for it. She personally called Herbst to help secure his involvement.
“It’s important for patients,” Sigal says. “They’re going to get state of the art treatment and they’ll get a better result. If you want to get to the bottom line, this is something patients can’t get on a one-off.” Says Pazdur: “This would not have proceeded without her.”
This trial could also be good new for Foundation Medicine, a startup focusing on cancer genetics that was backed by Google Ventures and Bill Gates and that recently raised $106 million in an initial public offering. Foundation was picked through a competitive bidding process to do the DNA sequencing for this study – a stamp of approval for the sequencing test it already markets to oncologists and patients and which delivered 2,577 patients in the most recent quarter. It also seems possible that the study results could help Foundation convince insurers and Medicare to pay for its test, which has a list price of $5,800. Right now Foundation is talking to Medicare and planning to start submitting bills to the agency by the end of the year.
“It’s really a catch-up to the genomic information that we’re providing to docs that is difficult to act on,” says Vincent Miller, a top oncologist who is now Foundation’s chief medical officer. “It’s not a theoretical exercise.”
The Psychology of the Call team (POTC) gives all credit and thanks Matthew Herper of Forbes for writing this exciting and timely investment piece.
Matthew Herper
Matthew Herper, Forbes Staff
I cover science and medicine, and believe this is biology's century.

http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Capitalist Pig Bob's brief History of U.S. Govt's Policy Failures; Affordable Care Act (ACA) under Fire~

After almost every single big Govt program has contributed to the burgeoning National Debt, why would any sane person think that the Govt will get it right with the ACA? Here's a list of failed Govt programs:

  • Social Security established in 1935 (79 years), President FDR (King Donk). A big Govt subsidized program that continues to add to the National Debt and goes unaddressed. 
  • Medicare and Medicaid established in 1965 (49 years), President LBJ (Donk). Another deficit Govt program that goes unaddressed as the Donks layer the ACA?   
  • Fannie Mae established in 1938 (76 years), President FDR (King Donk). Took a $117B bailout and still owes about $20B. Some positive signs butt with a hitch.
  • Freddie Mac established in 1970 (44 years), President Nixon (RINO - republican in name only). Together with Fannie they were partly responsible for the worst economic collapse and stagnation. These Govt Sponsored Enterprises (GSE) led us to 0% Interest Rate Policies and more. Who knows how much more diversity is on the Fed's balance sheet besides Treasuries. Are you okay with a private enterprise immune from being audited?
  • War on Drugs began in the 60's and it is a failure, President Nixon again (RINO). Here's the brilliant Dr. Milton Friedman on a solution to the drug problem.
  • 'O' (Super freak Donk) committed $831 billion to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. This near $1 trillion was the beginning of the $5 trillion 'O' has added to the National Debt and continues to argue for raising the debt-ceiling. Butt here 'O' called debt 'unpatriotic' and voted against raising the debt-ceiling in 2006. Hypocrisy, ignorance, amnesia, or just expected from a south side Chicago precinct captain with no private sector business experience? I think it's a combination, even the liberal NBC is finally 'getting it.'
  • Cash for Clunkers established in 2009, President 'O' went broke in 2009. 80% of the cars purchased turned out to be produced by foreign cos; car dealers were buried with paperwork demanded by a Govt that did not pay them what was initially promised.
  • No Child Left Behind Act of 2001, President 'W' (RINO), program costs about $55 billion per year while the U.S. ranks 17th in Education versus the modern world.
  • Department of Energy (DOE) established in 1977, President Carter (Donk). Has a $30 billion budget and couldn't avert the BP spill and does more harm than good by levying fines and hence raising costs, prices of gas and other fossil fuels. Latest heads of of DOE under 'O' have refused to lift restrictions on international coal shipping, stymied the Keystone pipeline and push for green energy like Solar instead of Natural-gas.  
  • Fair Housing Act established 1968, President LBJ (Donk): The Govt instructed Banks to issue Subprime Mortgages to minorities regardless of their credit; partly responsible for 841,073 foreclosures in 2012 as Govt forced the hand of what should be Darwinian Capitalism that embraces private sector cos burn (go BK) that make bad investments and reap profits from good.
  • Federal Reserve Bank created on December 23, 1913, President Wilson (Donk). Fed is broke and should be audited like any private sector business, fair? I personally think the Fed played a major role in buying S&P futures beginning in October, 2010, when QE was announced. I recall a couple men that looked to be in their mid 70s on the NYSE floor scratching their heads -CNBC- as the Dow kept rallying right before close and then the overnight futures session rarely faltered .. this pattern is able to be verified by back testing the charts. As for the NYSE men, you'll just have to trust me. One of the NYSE gents said "I don't know where the volume is coming from, nobody on this floor is buying?"  Fed has no 'reserve' just more and more paper 'money' with no intrinsic value. After so many failed Govt programs do you believe "Backed by full Faith and Credit of U.S. Govt is applicable?" Great reason why we're seeing equity prices rally, U.S. loss of credibility to fight a 'modern-day recession' with Monetary policies and no help from the Fiscal side as anti business policies from the Legislative side pile.  
  • Now O's ACA, giving big Brother free reigns to mandate HC policies which account for 17% of GDP.


We definitely need to rejigger the HC system butt forcing a religious man or woman to pay for abortions is clearly an infringement on the First amendment.   


God vs.Govt: What Does the Constitution Really Say About the Separation of Church and State?


The First amendment:
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereofor abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.
I agree with Adam that we deserve months of televised Town hall debates and not a partisan Reconciliation vote. Reconciliation is a legislative process in the U.S. Senate with debate limited to twenty hours.  

Imagine if 'W' passed legislation in the same way. Legislation that was responsible for nearly $1 of every $5 of the economy's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) but limited the debate to 20-hours. MSNBC's (aka MS-LSD) line-up of socialists: Mr. L. 'O' Donnell, Mz. R. Man-off, Mr. Chrissy 'thrill up my leg' Matt-news, and the ex James Brown tour manager and HS graduate Al 'Reverend since age 4' Sharpton would all be calling for public demonstrations.   

Whether ignorant or deceitful 'O' insisted "You can keep your plan if you like it". Here's the Honorable and healthy looking 62-yr young Jeanine Pirro's views on the HC Act.

I do not agree with many things 'W' did, especially with crony Hank Paulson as certain Wall Street Banks' stock prices were in free-fall, yet I have a harder time with 'O' getting away with anti Constitutional legislation.

Let's elect Independent thinkers that will Delete the 'Unaffordable HC Act' and start over. Let's come up with solutions that a majority of the people agree on. 

I am sure that most Darwinian Capitalists have soft spots in their hearts for helping people with pre-existing conditions, butt let's agree on a HC overhaul in Town halls and not through a Reconciliation vote. 

Wake-up America, it's not too late!  

Photo: JMc


I thank you for reading, and if you have a comment or question, email me. 
Capitalist Pig Bob @ Psychologyofthecall@gmail.com 



Forest fire Darwinian Capitalism is best solution to almost every problem in the U.S., not big Brother! 

Elon Musk's Tesla Motors (TSLA) by the Numbers