Monday, March 4, 2013

Qihoo 360 (QIHU) Q4, 2012 Earnings

Will be released Tuesday after market close: Live conference call at 7:30 pm ET.

Interesting how Google Inc. (GOOG) found a backdoor onto mainland China via QIHU and Hong Kong. Please search bottom of QIHU's corp website here.


Qihoo 360 Technology Co Ltd (Qihoo 360) formerly Qihoo Technology Company Limited, is engaged in the operations of Internet services and sales of third party anti-virus software in the People's Republic of China. It provides Internet and mobile security products in China. In January 2011, the Company had 328 million monthly active Internet security product users, representing a user penetration rate of 83.9% in China. Its Internet and mobile security products include 360 Safe Guard and 360 Anti-virus, the Internet security products in China, with 301 million and 248 million monthly active users in January 2011, and 360 Mobile Safe, the mobile security product in China. The Company generates revenues primarily through offering the services, such as online advertising and Internet value-added services. Online advertising offers advertising services by providing marketing opportunities on its Websites and secure platform products to its advertising customers.

External links:
Thanks for stopping by this educational trading blogspot,
POTC-

Quick Art: Baidu.com (BIDU) vs Qihoo 360 (QIHU)

BIDU


\

QIHU





Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) Post Earnings Educational Trade Alert (PEETA)

Coming Red-Eye Friday, U.S. 11 pm ET.

CRM will be a pure blooded 6 1/2 hour (single-day to expiration) PEETA. 

If you are a current subscriber you will receive this trade alert on schedule.

CRM CEO Marc Benioff pictutred above.

Internal CRM links

External CRM links




If you came here because of Pig Bob's post on Yahoo's! trading board, send an email confirm with 'Yahoo!' and we will send you this trade at no charge: Psychologyofthecall@gmail.com

Thanks for Reading, Educating, and Trading with Us,
POTC-
http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com 

I am Capitalist Pig Bob and I am Fat Money

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Priceline.com (PCLN) Educational Trade Alert

Scheduled for Tuesday at 7 am ET. PCLN reports after market close and all subscribers will receive this educational trade alert ahead of PCLN's Q4, 2012 report.

Thank You,
POTC-

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Obama Ruses Minorities in his Bogus SOTU Speech

This Administration is a twisted gang of Collectivist thugs in my porky opinion (impo).

I vehemently disagree with a Govt mandated minimum wage. This ignorant proposition would cause more unemployment, crime, and mayhem, paradoxically in Obama's adopted city of Chicago. More minorities will be turned away as employers deal with managing their administrative/labor costs as growth in the economy as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is scratching near 0%.

Here's the brilliant Professor Milton Friedman explaining the negative effects that a minimum wage has on black teens:
'One of the most anti-negro laws on the books'. Milt responds to a  young Collectivist Stanford University student (pay special attention after the 2-minute mark):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rls8H6MktrA

Pig thanks for reading my political take. Please send all comments and share this link! Psychologyofthecall@gmail.com


I am Capitalist Pig Bob and I am Fat Money

Monday, February 11, 2013

Blue Nile Inc. (NILE) Trade Alert

We were excited to send all subscribers an educational trade alert for NILE on Monday night.

NILE reports Q4, 2012 earnings after Tuesday's close. 

Blue Nile, Inc. (Blue Nile) is a online retailer of diamonds and fine jewelry. The Company derives its revenues from its three websites: www.bluenile.com, www.bluenile.ca and www.bluenile.co.uk. Its Website serves the United States and 16 additional countries and territories globally. It has three wholly owned subsidiaries: Blue Nile, LLC (LLC), Blue Nile Worldwide, Inc. (Worldwide) and Blue Nile Jewellery, Ltd. (Jewellery). LLC serves its customers in the United States, Canada and Asia-Pacific. Worldwide serves customers in the European Union, and Jewellery operates a customer service and fulfillment center in Dublin, Ireland. All member states of the European Union are served from its United Kingdom Website and Canadian customers are supported from its Canada Website. Its domestic sales consist of products delivered to customers within the United States and its international sales consist of products delivered to customers outside the United States.

Website links


Thank You,
POTC-

Friday, February 8, 2013

Fossil Inc. (FOSL) Trade Alert Scheduled

For Monday at 11 AM ET.

FOSL will release their Q4, 2012 earnings before market open on Tuesday, February 12. All subscribers will receive this educational trade alert 1-day ahead of the report, on Monday afternoon. 

Fossil is a global retailer specializing in the design, innovation, and marketing of fashion lifestyle and accessory products. At the heart of the Company’s vision is a commitment to fostering creativity and delivering the best in design through its two core businesses: Fossil brand; and a multi-brand watch business.
The Fossil brand is rooted in authenticity and a distinctive vintage-inspired design aesthetic. With over 390 stores worldwide and a strong global e-commerce business, the brand is internationally known for its eclectic assortment of lifestyle and accessory items including watches, handbags, and clothing.
The Company also creates fashion accessories for a number of other owned and licensed brands including MICHELE, Zodiac, Relic, Emporio Armani, DKNY, Armani Exchange, Michael Kors, Diesel, Burberry, Marc by Marc Jacobs, Adidas, Skagen Denmark, and Karl Lagerfeld. The Company is constantly developing its multi-brand portfolio through its core competencies in innovative branding, world-class design, and dynamic global distribution.

Website links

Thursday, January 31, 2013

LinkedIn Post Earnings Educational Trade Alert (PEETA)

Earnings release scheduled after close Thursday. (Red-Eye U.S. 12 AM ET Friday).

All subscribers wil receive this 6 1/2 hour to expiration PEETA, a true thoroughbred trade in the strict sense.

Thank You,
POTC-
http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Guy Adami Trumps Anthony Scaramucci on Facebook

Yesterday on Fast Money the two Italians went at it. Guy said $28 - $30 range after earnings and Anthony said $35+.

Guy clearly made the better call as far as the short-term fallout is concerned.

Congrats Negotiator,
POTC-

Monday, January 28, 2013

SodaStream (SODA) Super Duper Trade Set-up?

Bob toiled for several hours and wrote this piece all by his lonesome. All current subscribers received it Monday night and many are amused at just how different the Pig's brain works.

Thank You,
POTC-



I am Capitalist Pig Bob and I am Fat Money

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Amazon.com (AMZN) Educational Stock Option Trade Alert

Coming to your inbox on Tuesday, January 29, at 7 AM ET.

If you are a subscriber you will receive this write-up on schedule.

Subscribers in this Q have already enjoyed profits in GOOG and ISRG. Some inquisitive emailers booked large profits in NFLX as well.

Thanks for Reading, Educating, and Trading with Us,
POTC-




Sunday, January 13, 2013

Yahoo! Poll Reveals that the Retail Investor is Not Participating in the Latest Stock Market Rally; a Contrarian and Bullish Indicator

More than $19 billion flowed into U.S. equity funds last week, the fourth-highest uptick since 2000. Are you getting back into the game?

Yes, I'm getting back into stocks (24,915) - 33%
 
I'm cautious but thinking of getting back in (17,640) - 24%
 
No, I'm staying on the sidelines (32,343) - 43%

 

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

PEETA Focus List for Q1, 2013


Apple Inc. (AAPL)


Amazon.com (AMZN)


Baidu.com (BIDU)



Google Inc. (GOOG)


Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)


Priceline.com (PCLN)


Monday, November 26, 2012

Financial Terms Every Trader Should Learn


Valuation Measures

Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Formula: Enterprise Value / EBITDA
Firm value compared against EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization).

Enterprise Value
Formula: Market Cap + Total Debt - Total Cash & Short Term Investments
EV is a measure of theoretical takeover price, and is useful in comparisons against income statement line items above the interest expense/income lines such as revenue and EBITDA.

Enterprise Value/Revenue
Formula: Enterprise Value / Total Revenues
Firm value compared against revenue. Provides a more rigorous comparison than the Price/Sales ratio by removing the effects of capitalization from both sides of the ratio. Since revenue is unaffected by the interest income/expense line item, the appropriate value comparison should also remove the effects of capitalization, as EV does.

Forward P/E Ratio
Formula: Current Market Price / Projected Earnings Per Share
A valuation ratio calculated by dividing the current market price by projected 12-month Earnings Per Share.

Market Cap
Formula: Current Market Price Per Share x Number of Shares Outstanding
The total dollar value of all outstanding shares. Computed as shares times the current market price. Capitalization is a measure of corporate size.

PEG Ratio
Formula: P/E Ratio / 5-Yr Expected EPS Growth
Forward-looking measure rather than typical earnings growth measures, which look back in time (historical). Used to measure a stock's valuation against its projected 5-yr growth rate.

Price/Book Ratio
Formula: Current Market Price / Book Value Per Share
A valuation ratio calculated by dividing the current market price by the most recent quarter's (mrq) Book Value Per Share.

Price/Sales Ratio
Formula: Current Market Price / Total Revenues Per Share
A valuation ratio calculated by dividing the current market price by trailing 12-month (ttm) Total Revenues. Often used to value unprofitable companies.

Trailing P/E Ratio
Formula: Current Market Price / Earnings Per Share
A popular valuation ratio calculated by dividing the current market price by trailing 12-month (ttm) Earnings Per Share.

Financial Highlights

Book Value Per Share
Formula: Total Common Equity / Total Common Shares Outstanding
This is defined as the Common Shareholder's Equity divided by the Shares Outstanding at the end of the most recent fiscal quarter.

Current Ratio
Formula: Total Current Assets / Total Current Liabilities
This is the ratio of Total Current Assets for the most recent quarter divided by Total Current Liabilities for the same period.

Diluted EPS
Formula: (Net Income - Preferred Dividend and Other Adjustments)/ Weighted Average Diluted Shares Outstanding
This is the Adjusted Income Available to Common Stockholders (based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, GAAP) for the trailing 12 months divided by the trailing 12 month weighted average shares outstanding. Diluted EPS uses diluted weighted average shares in the calculation, or the weighted average shares assuming all convertible securities are exercised.

EBITDA
The accounting acronym EBITDA stands for "Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, and Amortization."

Fiscal Year Ends
The date of the end of the firm's accounting year.

Gross Profit
Formula: Total Revenues - Cost of Revenues
This item represents Total Revenues minus Cost Of Goods Sold, Total.

Levered Free Cash Flow
Formula: (EBIT + Interest Expense) x (1 x Tax Rate) + Depreciation & Amort., Total + Other Amortization + Capital Expenditure + Sale (Purchase) of Intangible assets - Change in Net Working Capital + Pref. Dividends Paid + Total Debt Repaid + Total Debt Issued + Repurchase of Preferred + Issuance of Preferred Stock
Where: Tax Rate = 37.5%
This figure is a normalized item that excludes non-recurring items and also takes into consideration cash inflows from financing activities such as debt or preferred stock issuances.

Operating Cash Flow
Formula: Net Income + Depreciation and Amortization, Total + Other Amortization + Other Non-Cash Items, Total + Change in Working Capital
Net cash used or generated in operating activities during the stated period of time. It reflects net impact of all operating activity transactions on the cash flow of the entity. This GAAP figure is taken directly from the company's Cash Flow Statement and might include significant non-recurring items.

Operating Margin
Formula: [(Total Revenues - Total Operating Costs) / (Total Revenues)] x 100
This item represents the difference between the Total Revenues and the Total Operating Costs divided by Total Revenues, and is expressed as a percentage. Total Operating Costs consist of: (a) Cost of Goods Sold (b) Total (c) Selling, General & Administrative Expenses (d) Total R & D Expenses (e) Depreciation & Amortization and (f) Total Other Operating Expenses, Total. A ratio used to measure a company's operating efficiency.

Profit Margin
Formula: (Net Income / Total Revenues) x 100
Also known as Return on Sales, this value is the Net Income After Taxes for the trailing 12 months divided by Total Revenue for the same period and is expressed as a percentage.

Quarterly Earnings Growth
Formula: [(Qtrly Net Income - Qtrly Net Income (yr ago)) / Qtrly Net Income (yr ago)] x 100
The growth of Quarterly Net Income from the same quarter a year ago.

Quarterly Revenue Growth
Formula: [(Qtrly Total Revenues - Qtrly Total Revenues (yr ago)) / Qtrly Total Revenues (yr ago)] x 100
The growth of Quarterly Total Revenues from the same quarter a year ago.

Return on Assets
Formula: Earnings from Continuing Operations / Average Total Equity
This ratio shows percentage of Returns to Total Assets of the company. This is a useful measure in analyzing how well a company uses its assets to produce earnings.

Return on Equity
Formula: [(Earnings from Continuing Operations) / Total Common Equity] x 100
This is a measure of the return on money provided by the firms' owners. This ratio represents Earnings from Continuing Operations divided by average Total Equity and is expressed as a percentage.

Revenue
The amount of money generated by a company's business activities. Also known as Sales.

Revenue (Sales) Per Share
Formula: Total Revenues / Weighted Average Shares Outstanding

Total Cash
The Total Cash and Short-term Investments on the balance sheet as of the most recent quarter.

Total Cash Per Share
This is the Total Cash plus Short Term Investments divided by the Shares Outstanding at the end of the most recent fiscal quarter.

Total Debt
Formula: Short Term Borrowings + Current Portion of Long Term Debt + Current Portion of Capital Lease + Long Term Debt + Long Term Capital Lease + Finance Division Debt Current + Finance Division Debt Non Current
The Total Debt on the balance sheet as of the most recent quarter.

Total Debt / Total Equity
Formula: [(Long-term Debt + Capital Leases + Finance Division Debt Non-Current + Short-term Borrowings + Current Portion of Long-term Debt + Current Portion of Capital Lease Obligation + Finance Division Debt Current) / (Total Common Equity + Total Preferred Equity)] x 100
This ratio is Total Debt for the most recent fiscal quarter divided by Total Shareholder Equity for the same period.

Trading Information

Average Volume (3 month)
This is the average daily trading volume during the last 3 months.

Average Volume (10 day)
This is the average daily trading volume during the last 10 days.

Beta
The Beta used is Beta of Equity. Beta is the monthly price change of a particular company relative to the monthly price change of the S&P500. The time period for Beta is usually 3-years.

Dividend Date
The payment date for a declared dividend.

Ex-Dividend Date
The first day of trading when the seller, rather than the buyer, of a stock is entitled to the most recently announced dividend payment. The date set by the NYSE (and generally followed on other U.S. exchanges) is currently two business days before the record date. A stock that has gone ex-dividend is denoted by an x in newspaper listings on that date.

Float
This is the number of freely traded shares in the hands of the public. Float is calculated as Shares Outstanding minus Shares Owned by Insiders, 5% Owners, and Rule 144 Shares.

Forward Annual Dividend Rate
The annualized amount of dividends expected to be paid in the current fiscal year.

Trailing Annual Dividend Rate
The sum of all dividends paid out in the trailing 12-month period.

Payout Ratio
The ratio of Earnings paid out in Dividends, expressed as a percentage.

Shares Outstanding
This is the number of shares of common stock currently outstanding—the number of shares issued minus the shares held in treasury. This field reflects all offerings and acquisitions for stock made after the end of the previous fiscal period.

Shares Short
This is the number of shares currently borrowed by investors for sale, but not yet returned to the owner/lender.

Short Ratio
This represents the number of days it would take to cover the Short Interest if trading continued at the average daily volume for the month. It is calculated as the Short Interest for the Current Month divided by the Average Daily Volume.

Short % of Float
Number of shares short divided by float.

5-Year Average Dividend Yield
The average Forward Annual Dividend Yield in the past 5 years.

52-Week High
This price is the highest Price the stock traded at in the last 12 months. This could be an intraday high.

52-Week Low
This price is the lowest Price the stock traded at in the last 12 months. This could be an intraday low.

200-Day Moving Average
A simple moving average that is calculated by dividing the sum of the closing prices in the last 200 trading days by 200.

POTC-
http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com

Saturday, November 24, 2012

Guess ? (GES); a Story of Executive Exodus and Brand Erosion

Retail players like Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF), Michael Kors (KORS) and Fossil (FOSL) are fiercely competing on price. Guess's conference call (CC) tone over the past two quarters has worsened as margins search for a bottom. Two senior executives have resigned and we expect the stock to fall as the GES brand is too expensive with the targeted 30-somethings.
.
CFO Dennis R. Secor announced his resignation after six years on November 1, and FOSL announced his hire and promotion to CFO on November 8. Yet Secor's official departure date from GES will be  December 7, this corporate business psychology signals desperation in our opinion as FOSL is a direct competitor. As a matter of fact, the last CC was filled with excuses of weakening fashion accessory sales, exactly where FOSL has a strong foothold with growth and a lot less inventory / days sales outstanding (DSO) problems. 

FOSL's long-term fundamentals look intact as GES struggles; CFO Secor's resignation and quick hire by FOSL hints at deeper brand problems in our opinion. Operating margins at GES have declined from 17% in 2009 to 15.5% in 2012.  Sales fell 6% y/y last Q versus FOSL's  sales growth of 15% y/y.
.
COO J. Michael Prince announced his resignation on November 1 as well and his official departure date is this Monday, November 26, just 2-days ahead of the Q3 earnings release and CC. If a retail competitor hires Prince, that will be another nail in GES's eroding brand and balance sheet position.
.
On the May, 22, 2013, Q1 CC (click) at the 11minute:25second mark, co stated it had a cash and cash equivalents balance of $490M. That $490M has fallen by 44% to $271.9M in just 6-months; part of the reason for this cash depletion is as an ill-timed share buyback program. Please click here and scroll down to Q1, 2013 to see the precipitous drop in cash and cash equivalents.
.
The founding Marciano bros pictured above, Maurice 63 and Paul 60, are still in control as Co-CEOs. But the resignation of Carlos Alberini, who served as President and COO from 2000 - 2010, and now Prince and Secor gives us serious pause about the near-term future of the Guess brand. Every investor that bought and held the shares since mid-2009 has lost, that is a damningly negative fact since we have experienced massive global stimulus and  dead-catting stock markets.  
.
GES has and is misfiring from many fundamental perspectives; the Point & Figure chart confirms our thesis that lower prices are ahead. A double-bottom breakdown poses a serious danger for longs:


A hard economic downturn in this Q4 continues as uncertainty looms about the U.S. fiscal cliff and health of southern Europe. Though GES is doing better than average in Germany, Russia, and South Korea as mentioned on the last CC, about 38% and 14% of sales come from the fiscally fickle and unemployed countries of the U.S.A. and Italy.  
.
The co does not break down sales in Europe by country except for Italy, but execs did mention excitement around Spain as a future growth driver; this to us is laughable as southern Europe struggles with Goliath socioeconomic crises.
.
The following metrics are from the last 10-K (click), dated March 19, 2012:



2012
2011
2010
Net Sales:
U.S.A. 

$1,031,131
$989,243
$908,107
Italy
$375,385$418,115$366,563
Canada
$295,574$286,449$252,523
Other foreign countries
$985,958$793,487$601,273

$2,688,048
$2,487,294
$2,128,466


GES reports Q3, 2013 earnings this Wednesday, (click) November 28, 2012, after market close and we expect fireworks.

Maybe the mass exodus of executives reflects the lack of pricing power and brand erosion, while the Buy & Hold investor refuses to admit the ride with Guess is heading lower. 

Thanks for Reading, Educating, and sometimes Trading with Us,
POTC-
http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com/


Thursday, November 22, 2012

Euro-zone is in Bloody Trouble; Shattered Stock Markets should be the Norm in 2013


Euro-zone economy is headed for its weakest quarter since early 2009, according to business surveys that showed companies witnessing deteriorating order books (book-to-bill ratio) in November. Banks and Hotels are performing poorly and laying off employees at an accelerating pace; impact on the stock prices should be negative in 2013 as the average consumer's psychology is shattered.

The flash service sector the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 45.7 this month, lowest number since July 2009; survey showed on Thursday, failing to meet expectations of economists who thought it would hold at October's anemic 46.0. It has been stuck under 50 for 10 straight months, 50 is the number that divides growth from contraction. 


With more austerity being piped, a reminder of the thorny sovereign debt crisis in this week's failure of lenders to agree more aid for Greece, prospects for next year look dim.


The concern about the outlook is getting worse as the Euro-zone races towards 2013, many economists agree that German companies have become pessimistic about 2013.


PMI had its biggest decline in November month over month since early 2009, when the U.S. was spiraling into the bail-out new abnormal abyss.


There is no positive conviction among businesses that conditions will improve in 2013. Service sector companies are more pessimistic than at any time since 2009, when the expectations index fell to 48.6 and the zone was experiencing its worst post-war recession.

Economists polled by Reuters remain divided over whether the European Central Bank will cut its main refinancing rate from 0.75% to a new record low 0.5 percent or lower.


POTC predicts the Euro-zone stock indexes will be 20%+ lower this time next year as structural fissures are too deep and jagged to fix. Euros need a new technological growth paradigm to emerge overnight or they must move to abolish and dissolve big Govt agency control in favor of lower taxes and less regulatory barriers for private business.



Friday, November 16, 2012

J.C. Penney (JCP) Educational Trade Alert...

scheduled for Sunday, November 18, 2012, at 10 p.m. ET. 

JCP has been in the news lately and its stock and bonds are under heavy fire; it is setting-up for an interesting trade. 


All subscribers will receive this aggressive educational alert on schedule; if not a subscriber, please use Paypal and get started.

-1902: James Cash Penney, son of a Baptist preacher and farmer, opens 'The Golden Rule', a dry goods and clothing store in Kemmerer, Wyoming. Store name was based on his guiding principle of building a business through serving the community with fair dealing and honest value.
-1913: Incorporates in Utah as the 'J.C. Penney Co. Inc'; 'Golden Rule'  name phased out.
-1914: Headquarters moves from Salt Lake City, Utah, to NYC.
-1929: Begins trading as a publicly traded company.
-1951: Sales exceed $1 billion.
-1963: Issues its first catalog.
-1971: James Cash Penney dies at age 95.
-1972: Launches first national television campaign.
-1979: Catalog sales pass $1 billion.
-1992: Headquarters moves to Plano, TX.
-1994: Launches jcpenney.com.
-2005: Penney's e-commerce business breaks $1 billion in sales.
-2009: Opens its first store in Manhattan.
-2010: Becomes the exclusive retailer of Liz Claiborne and Claiborne in the U.S. and Puerto Rico; exits catalog business. Introduces mobile coupons.
-2011: Hires AAPL executive Ron Johnson as CEO.
-2012: Implements new pricing strategy and eliminates physical  coupons and sales in favor of everyday low pricing; Johnson rolls out new shops in stores to turn the stores into a mini-mall experience. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman reiterates his bullishness on Tuesday, November 13, on CNBC as stock price dives to multi-year lows.


Thank You for Reading, Educating, and Trading with Us,
POTC-
http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com