The Brutal Reality of Gov't Red TARP and Goldman Sachs Developing, As Predicted...

When it comes to the TARP, Goldman Sachs (GS) and the Obama administration have been portrayed as two Englishmen arguing over a restaurant check: "Please let me pay," "No, no, my dear boy, I won't hear of it." Goldman's desire to repay its $10 billion slug of TARP money pronto is understandable. The chief reason is to remove associated restrictions on something that goes to the heart of its business model: how much people get paid. The Troubled Asset Relief Program's aim, though, is to stabilize the financial system as a whole. Recent signs of improvement on the front are still questionable. Goldman's outsize trading gains in the first quarter, coming alongside weakness in other businesses, offer limited comfort. And Goldman still utilizes other government guarantees, having issued $21 billion of cheap debt backed by the part the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program since October, according to Dealogic. From the government's perspective, more retail-exposed banks still face big hits on the consumer credit portfolios. Allowing Goldman to repay now, the thinking goes, risks stigmatizing others not yet able to do so, while the system is still fragile. The bank may well have to wait. Having just raised at least $5 billion by issuing stock, knocking 9% off its share price in the process, Goldman appears confident of success. In any case, a delay in approval to repay TARP would not wholly remove Goldman's advantage. Merely by demonstrating it can raise fresh capital to repay the TARP, it separates itself from the pack. Even if the long term outlook of the investment banking model remains foggy, the imperative to get one up on one's rivals remains as a strong as ever. Write to Liam Denning at liam.denning@wsj.com <mailto:liam.denning@wsj.com> (TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkbackAmericas@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.) Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=tttPu7foH6mxFOSPPy0mpw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 14, 2009 16:48 ET (20:48 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 04 48 PM EDT 04-14-09

A Clear Plan of Control through Gov't Regulation, Perhaps; Capitalist Pig Bob Was Not Polled, You?

WASHINGTON (AFP)--Americans have twice as much faith in President Barack Obama's handling of the economy than they do in Republican plans to end the recession, according to polls published this week. Nearly six in 10 Americans - 58% of respondents - said the president has "a clear plan for solving the country's economic problems," while 42% said he does not, according to a poll by CNN and the Opinion Research Corporation polling firm released Tuesday. But only about a quarter - 24% - said Republicans have a clear plan for the economy. The poll pointed to significant public support for Obama as he attempts to piece together an economic rescue "puzzle" that justified unpopular bailouts for the banking and finance industries. The Republican opposition, still reeling from devastating losses in the 2008 elections, voted against the president's 2010 budget. Despite the apparent animosity between Republicans and the White House, 62% of respondents said Obama was "doing enough to cooperate with the Republicans in Congress," compared to 37% for Republican cooperation with Obama. In a separate poll, conducted by Gallup and released Monday, 71% of Americans said they have a "great deal" or a "fair amount" of confidence in Obama to do or recommend the right thing for the economy." Congressional leaders, especially Republicans, do not enjoy the same public confidence. Democrats were also not spared in the survey. Some 51% said they had a "great deal" or a "fair amount" of confidence in Democratic leaders on the economy, compared to just 38% for Republican leaders. The Gallup poll of 1,027 people was conducted April 6-9. CNN surveyed 1,023 people by telephone April 3-5, and its poll had an error margin of three percentage points. The surveys came as Obama said Tuesday he saw "glimmers of hope" for the American economy, which is battling its deepest economic slump in decades, but also warned of painful choices and more deep job cuts to come. Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=tttPu7foH6mxFOSPPy0mpw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 14, 2009 14:29 ET (18:29 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 02 29 PM EDT 04-14-09

Psychology of the Upcoming Week's Economic and Earnings Data

Greetings to all who respect risk takers, smaller government, war veterans, and the eternal greatness of men like Thomas Jefferson and Ronald Reagan,

Here's the first sentence copied and pasted from our prior weekend piece: "The S&P 500 index climbed 26 points, or 3.1% for the week. A full 8 of those 26 points, or almost 1% came as a result of short covering in the last 23 minutes of Friday." Coincidentally, the last day of this past week, Thursday, exhibited the classic bear rally effect as well. Bear markets catch most off guard, as they work to eventually destroy more wealth than they create. POTC sure hopes no reader bought blindly on Thursday, especially the financials.

The past week saw the S&P down 26 points, from 842 close on Friday, April 3rd, to the 816 area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then the last day of the shortened trading week, Thursday, witnessed a rally spurred by positive comments from Wells Fargo (WFC). Additionally the 20K drop in initial claims for unemployment was cheered, yet we warned last week of this false signal resulting from the smoothing effect of more government jobs. Although we mentioned in early March and late April, esp in the March 1st archived piece, that the pendulum was due to swing and we should rally above S&P 800+, we now urge traders to be very cautious in their stock and option selections.

Tuesday's after market earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS) will emphasize why being vigilant now is so important. It has to do with...

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Send In The Secondarys

Thursday afternoon greetings to all; caution is urged with GS and MS right here!

After this wonderful rally in equities, please do not lose focus on the capital structure of your holding that just hiccuped, because a secondary offering may send your shares spiraling down the barrel, again...

You should to do a quick analysis of the capital structure/balance sheet of every company you own. IF you identify the stock(s) that are in greater need of liquidity/cash (which could be said for most companies today), then you need to take profits or else suffer the consequences of being diluted.

When a company needs liquidity, it can issue more shares at a specific price on a specific future date, therefore called a secondary or follow-on offering. MS and GS and all banks/companies that have TARP funds have a little window of opportunity to dilute shareholders, right here, right now. We recommend either taking profits or buying puts into this "V" S&P bear spike. POTC is convinced the recent bear rally is being exacerbated by what many talking heads blamed on the decline ironically, the ultrashort ETF's, specifically SKF.

Capitalist Pig Bob thinks Refinancing is NOT a Long-Term Wealth Creator, Only a Technicality of a Dumbed Down "New Normal"

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. President Barack Obama Thursday hailed historically low interest rates, which he said could save homeowners who refinance their mortgages about $1,600 a year. "Rates are as low as they've been since 1971," with the 30-year rate at 4.78%, Obama told reporters. He attributed the decline in part to "extraordinary actions" taken by the Federal Reserve, and in part to actions taken by his administration. Lower rates are prompting a flood of mortgage refinancings, which rose 88% Obama said. He noted that federal housing-finance giant Fannie Mae (FNM) refinanced $77 billion of mortgages in March, nearly twice the February amount, and their highest for a single month since 2003. The President's remarks came as Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) projected better than expected first-quarter earnings, fueled by $100 billion of mortgage applications, a 64% increase over the prior quarter. Obama spoke to reporters after meeting homeowners from Washington, D.C. and northern Virginia who recently refinanced their mortgage loans. He estimated the average homeowner could pare hundreds of dollars a month, or an average of $1,600 a year, by refinancing, and urged homeowners who haven't refinanced to consider doing so. "We hope that everybody takes advantage of it," Obama added. He said between seven to nine million homeowners might qualify to refinance their mortgages at lower rates, putting more money in their pocket each month. He advised those looking to refinance to check out an online government resource, http://www.makinghomeaffordable.gov/. Obama warned homeowners to avoid refinancing scams, saying that if they are asked to pay money up-front before a refinancing, "it's probably a scam." The President declined to comment on piracy, telling reporters that he wants to keep the focus on the administration's efforts to keep people in their homes. -By Judith Burns, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-6692; Judith.Burns@dowjones.com (Tess Stynes contributed to this article.) Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=lTcqrympGmYnyRp%2FH7olUQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 09, 2009 11:19 ET (15:19 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 11 19 AM EDT 04-09-09

Government Effect upon Employment is taking Hold, Will You be Ready for Friday's, May 1st Breakdown; Big Brother's Smoothing Won't Fool Us

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--New U.S. claims for state unemployment benefits fell by an unexpectedly large amount last week, although they remained at very high levels consistent with more steep declines in employment. However, total claims jumped to a fresh record high, a reflection of how hard it has become for the unemployed to find new work during the recession. Initial claims for state jobless benefits decreased 20,000 to 654,000 in the week ended April 4, the Labor Department said in a weekly report Thursday. That was the biggest decline since the beginning of the year, and more than doubled Wall Street expectations, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. The prior week's level was revised up. The four-week average - which aims to smooth volatility - fell 750 to 657,250. The U.S. has lost 5.1 million jobs since the recession started in late 2007, with over 2 million of those losses occurring in the last three months alone, pushing the unemployment rate to a 25-year high of 8.5%. The early-April jobless claims figures, if sustained in coming weeks, point to another monthly drop in the 600,000 to 700,000 range in April. The risk for the economy is that if the U.S. keeps losing jobs at that pace for too much longer, it could prevent a consumer-led recovery from taking hold. Federal Reserve economists now expect the jobless rate to rise "more steeply" into early 2010 before stabilizing "at a high level over the rest of the year," according to meeting minutes released Wednesday. According to Thursday's Labor Department report, the tally of continuing jobless claims - those drawn by workers collecting benefits for more than one week in the week ended March 28 - surged another 95,000 to 5,840,000, the highest level since the government started keeping track in 1967. Continuing claims have risen 12-straight weeks, and are up well over one million since the start of the year. The unemployment rate for workers with unemployment insurance rose 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%, a 26-year high. Not adjusted to reflect seasonal fluctuations, Kentucky reported the largest increase in new claims during the March 28 week, 5,029, due to layoffs in the automobile, trade and manufacturing industries. California reported the biggest decrease, 7,057, due to fewer layoffs in service and manufacturing industries. -By Brian Blackstone, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-828-3397; brian.blackstone@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=lTcqrympGmYnyRp%2FH7olUQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 09, 2009 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 08 30 AM EDT 04-09-09

Capitalist Pig Bob thinks Cap and Trade Bill will Hammer the Already Spent Consumer and Bloody the Energy Sector and S&P

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The capture and storage of carbon dioxide is a top priority for the Obama administration, a senior White House official said Wednesday. While the mining sector and coal-powered utilities have been lobbying the administration for funding to help develop technology that hasn't yet been proven feasible at a large scale, many environmental groups with close ties to the White House have been urging the government to shy away from the technology, saying it holds false promise. "This is a priority for the administration," Joseph Aldy, special assistant to the president for energy and the environment, said at an energy conference here. "We know that it's going to be important to try and help push on this technology...and it's going to be really a key part of the energy portfolio as we move ahead," Aldy said. As groups such as the Sierra Club and Greenpeace fight new coal-fired power plants designed to integrate capture-and-storage technology at a later date, some coal proponents have questioned the administration's commitment to coal as a future source of energy. In addition to concerns about greenhouse gas emissions, environmental advocates also question long-term storage viability and many of the mining practices used to excavate the fossil fuel. Energy Secretary Steven Chu said Tuesday that developing "clean coal" technology that removes a substantial portion of the greenhouse gas emissions from the generation process was necessary to encourage major emitters such as China and India to develop lower-carbon economies. The U.S. has one of the largest deposits of coal in the world and, even based on current energy consumption rates, the U.S. could conceivably meet its demand needs for hundreds of years on the domestic resources. The recovery bill signed into legislation earlier this year included almost $3.4 billion to develop capture-and-storage technology. Also, in diplomatic dialogues with Canada - a major oil supplier to the U.S. - and coal-mining Australia, the President Barack Obama has agreed to cooperate on carbon capture and storage. One of Obama's top environmental advisors said Tuesday the administration largely approved of a climate bill drafted in the House of Representatives that includes a major funding provision for the technology. The administration has also pledged to continue pursuing investment in several commercial-scale test plants across the country. By Ian Talley, Dow Jones Newswires; (202) 862 9285; ian.talley@dowjones.com; Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=nTu4LxwcXyZ5kQj31xplfg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 08, 2009 14:15 ET (18:15 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 02 15 PM EDT 04-08-09

SEC Walking a Tightrope with Short Selling Rule Debate; the SEC Must Not Cross the Free Market Line

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission voted unanimously to seek public comments on all the proposed rules released Wednesday that seek to limit short selling. There are two types of proposals the SEC will consider possibly enacting after a 60-day comment period. One type aims to impose market-wide sales restrictions and another instead targets particular stocks that are in rapid decline. The two market-wide restrictions the SEC will consider include a rule similar to the old "uptick" rule and a modified uptick rule similar to Nasdaq's former bid test. In addition, the SEC also will solicit comments on three different types of "circuit-breaker" models, which would impose various restrictions on short sales for the remainder of a trading session if a particular security declines by 10%. If a circuit breaker is triggered, then traders could be subject to either an uptick restriction, a bid test restriction, or an outright short-selling ban on a particular security for the rest of the day. The Depression-era uptick rule, which the SEC abolished in 2007, prevented traders from short selling unless the price of the stock from the most recent trade was higher than the previous price. Short selling is the sale of borrowed shares by an investor hoping to profit by buying an equal number of shares later at a lower price to replace the borrowed stock. Also, Nasdaq used to have its own short-sale price restrictions known as a bid test, which prohibited short sales on many securities at a price lower than the highest national prevailing bid. All the short-sale price test restrictions were rescinded in 2007, however, after economic studies found they had little impact. All five of the SEC's commissioners indicated Wednesday they think there is value in exploring whether or not to impose additional short-selling restrictions given the current volatility in the markets. Both Republicans on the panel, however, appeared somewhat skeptical about whether or not bringing back some form of the old uptick rule would have the desired impact. "If the economic studies today prove out, that is if short-sale price tests do not effectively advance their stated purposes, we need to consider how investors might respond," Commissioner Troy Paredes said. -By Sarah N. Lynch, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-6634; sarah.lynch@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=nTu4LxwcXyZ5kQj31xplfg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 08, 2009 11:47 ET (15:47 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 11 47 AM EDT 04-08-09

A Troubled Sector Rallies on Gov't Bailout Program; Desperate News Related Rallies Require Aggressive Traders to Short HIG, LNC and PRU

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday confirmed that a number of life insurance companies could receive bailout funds under a program it created last fall to inject taxpayer funds into the ailing financial sector. "There are a number of life insurers who meet the requirements for the Capital Purchase Program because of their thrift or bank holding company status," said Treasury spokesman Andrew Williams. "These companies applied within appropriate deadlines. These are among the hundreds of financial institutions in the CPP pipeline that will be reviewed and funded as appropriate on a rolling basis." Treasury projects that only a small number of life insurance firms are likely to qualify for Treasury's Capital Purchase Program, a signature program designed to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into financial firms. According to The Wall Street Journal, companies such as Hartford Financial Services Group Inc., Genworth Financial Inc. and Lincoln National Corp., struck deals last autumn to buy regulated savings and loans so that they could qualify for the funds. Hartford and Lincoln have applied for funds under Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Genworth said it has applied with the office of Thrift Supervision to approve its thrift purchase as a step toward gaining access to federal funds. Meanwhile, Prudential Financial Inc. has also applied for the funds, The Wall Street Journal reported. Additionally, the Journal reported that MetLife Inc., the biggest publicly traded insurer by assets, hasn't commented on whether it has applied for TARP money. A Treasury official said the department still projects the CPP to be a $218 billion program. The Treasury said Tuesday that $198.8 billion has been spent, leaving little more than $19 billion left. That money will need to be split among not only the life insurers, but the hundreds of banks that have already filed applications to receive capital injections from the program. -By Maya Jackson Randall, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9255, maya.jackson-randall@dowjones.com (Michael Crittenden contributed to this report.) Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=nTu4LxwcXyZ5kQj31xplfg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 08, 2009 10:51 ET (14:51 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 10 51 AM EDT 04-08-09

Monitoring the Earnings of the Mosaic Comapany (MOS)

Quick example of our Sunday analysis sent out to all subscribers in the "Psychology of the Upcoming Data": The Mosaic Company (MOS), Q3 '09, earnings per share are estimated at $.27/share. Year ago same quarter MOS earned $1.07/share. Revenues are estimated to come in at 1.89B, year ago they were 2.15B. 52 week high for MOS is $163, and the low of $22 printed 4 months ago. Currently MOS is trading at $45.64 and although MOS is in a good sector, agricultural chemicals, we would not recommend conservative traders go long ahead of report. IF shares pulled back sharply post report, as occurred with APOL last week, we'd consider buying MOS after it stabilized. MOS has benefited from the resiliency in the broad market bear rally lately. We predict MOS revisits the high $30's before it breaks half a hundred, caution.

Middle East Must Respect Avigdor Lieberman's Strong Tone; the Man is No Push-Over; Definitely a Rising Star on the World Political Stage...

JERUSALEM (AFP)--Israel's hawkish new Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told foreign powers on Tuesday to stay out of Israeli politics, in an apparent reference to the flagging Middle East peace process. "We have never interfered in the affairs of others, and we expect from others that they not interfere in ours," Lieberman told a meeting of his ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party. "I do not expect from others that they have a stopwatch in hand and tell Israel when it must produce a responsible political program," he added. During a visit to Turkey on Monday, U.S. President Barack Obama voiced renewed hope that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could be resolved on the basis of a two-state solution, and urged leaders on both sides for "courage" to make peace. "I believe that peace in the Middle East is possible. I think it will be based on two states side by side," he said. "In order to achieve that, both sides are going to have to make compromises. Now what we need is the political will and courage on the part of leadership," he added. Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=mck7Ksb26V7G19NeQW%2F7rA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 07, 2009 13:28 ET (17:28 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 01 28 PM EDT 04-07-09

Psychology of the Upcoming Week's Earnings & Economic Data

The Psychology of the Call team (POTC) wishes you an April filled with greater health and wealth, greetings!

The S&P 500 index climbed 26 points, or 3.1% for the week. A full 8 of those 26 points, or almost 1% came as a result of short covering in the last 23 minutes of Friday. The prior week saw a powerful 48 point climb, good for a 6.25% S&P gain. So for the last 2 weeks we've witnessed an extremely aggressive technical bear claw back nearly 13% of the 53% implosion from last year's high of 1,425 to the early March lows of 666. Although POTC is still VERY much holding on to its thesis of being in the midst of a destructive bear market rally, we are heartened by the fear exhibited by the short money. Yet we believe the cause of this short covering is based on technical and political reasons more than fundamental balance sheet/supply and demand improvements, thus great caution is still urged. See if you agree with our take...

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Will Government's Massaging of the Yield Curve Change Credit Behavior; Many Wouldn't Loan Money even at 0% Today; a Conundrum Unfolding?

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday that the central bank's stepped-up purchase programs for Treasury and mortgage-related securities have been successful in lowering key borrowing costs for households and companies. He also signaled that the Fed is keeping a close eye on the size of reserve balances held at the Fed by commercial banks, saying that if those balances aren't managed right, they could make it tougher for the Fed to eventually tighten policy. The Fed's programs to purchase up to $300 billion in longer-term Treasury securities and a combined $1.45 trillion in agency and agency-backed mortgage-backed securities "are having the intended effect," Bernanke said in prepared remarks to a Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond conference. Mortgage rates, which Bernanke said didn't respond much to the Fed's interest rate cuts, have declined between one and 1.5 percentage points since the MBS purchase plan was first announced last November, he said. "Over time, lower mortgage rates should help to improve conditions in the housing market, whose persistent weakness has had a major impact on economic and financial conditions more broadly, and will improve the financial condition of some households by facilitating refinancing," Bernanke said. Bernanke's speech didn't address the economy, other than to say that he has "great confidence" in its underlying strength. The speech was instead a detailed description of the Fed's balance sheet, which has ballooned since last September in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers from less than $1 trillion to over $2 trillion. It'll likely get much bigger once the Fed's Treasury and MBS programs are fully implemented. "The Fed's holdings of high-quality securities are set to grow considerably," Bernanke said. In breaking down the Fed's balance sheet, Bernanke stressed that much of it is in short-term, high-quality assets. Only about 5% of it is comprised of loans to Bear Stearns and AIG, which carry more risk than other parts of the balance sheet. "We nevertheless expect to be fully repaid," Bernanke said. Bernanke said the eligible collateral for the Fed's $1 trillion Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, will likely expand to include commercial mortgages and securities that aren't newly issued. -By Brian Blackstone, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-838-3397; brian.blackstone@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=FElxo93nZVQ3drRGe5brJQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 03, 2009 12:00 ET (16:00 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 12 00 PM EDT 04-03-09

Public-Private Line Blurred; Capitalist Pig Bob thinks Obama's Cabinet is Setting a Repulsive Tone

Days after GM's CEO Rick Wagoner was forced out by the Obama administration, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner left open the possibility that such moves could happen again. In an interview with CBS Evening News anchor Katie Couric, Geithner acknowledged the government has had to do "exceptional things" – citing AIG as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. "We have changed management aboard," he said. "And where we've done that, we've done it because we thought that was necessary to make sure these institutions emerge stronger in the future." When asked if he would leave open the option to pressure a bank CEO to resign, Geithner replied: "Of course." In a separate interview with ABC News, Geithner said there was no difference in the way the administration has handled the auto and finance industries. As world leaders convene in London to address the global economic crisis, an increasingly confident Geithner predicted the "strongest coordinated global response" in generations would help revive the world's fractured economy. Citing initial commitments given by other countries, he said he was confident that broken financial systems would be fixed by growing trade and ensuring markets are expanding. "You're gonna see the strongest consensus on coordinated global stimulus you've seen in generations," he said. "A very powerful consensus on the kind of 21st century rules of the road for our financial systems." Geithner acknowledged the enormity of the crisis but said a unified effort would help reverse the financial downturn. "We're gonna have setbacks ahead," he said. "And that's why it's so important that we're moving together with the world to try to make sure we bring recovery back. And the world is with the president on this." Geithner also skirted criticism that the Treasury Department still has no mechanism for tracking how banks have spent billions of dollars in TARP money, saying the doled out dollars were showing immediate results. "Interest rates are now at historic lows … for mortgages," he said. "Millions of Americans are now able to refinance and take advantage of those interest rates. That's gonna reduce monthly payments very materially for millions of Americans."

Donkey Reid Promises Moderate Californification; Yet Capitalist Pig Bob thinks Coal Miners Stand to get the Ultimate Shaft

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones) -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said Wednesday that he will take up climate-change legislation being developed in the U.S. House of Representatives instead of pursuing a separate package in the U.S. Senate. "The Energy Committee is having trouble getting a bill out of the committee - it is taking too long," Reid said at an event sponsored by the Center for American Progress Action Fund. "The House is going to finish their bill by Memorial Day, so I think that it's to everyone's benefit that we follow what the House is doing." The Senate's top Democrat said he met Tuesday with a group of 10 Democrat senators, including from Ohio, Michigan and Indiana, who are concerned about the effect of climate-change legislation on their states. "We're going to have to work with them," Reid said. States such as Ohio and Indiana that depend on coal for electricity are concerned about bearing the brunt of climate legislation, since it would make traditional coal-fired electricity more expensive compared to "cleaner" fuels. California, whose lawmakers are pushing the House bill, would be less affected because the state is less coal-reliant. "People are afraid that this bill is going to have California written all over it," Reid said. He said that people "will be surprised at how moderate" the House bill will be - "moderate but good." -By Siobhan Hughes, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-6654; siobhan.hughes@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=qazd6NLmUgw5SCAIQICR%2FA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 01, 2009 12:11 ET (16:11 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 12 11 PM EDT 04-01-09

POTC's Wednesday - Friday Market Psychology; Forward-Thinkers Will Not be Fooled This Week

Wednesday, April Fools Day brings us no earnings before or after market. Construction Spending for February at 10ET: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/const.htm Prior reading was a negative (3.3%), consensus now calls for an improvement of negative (1.6% - 2.0%). Briefing.com gives this report a letter "D" in terms of market moving significance, so even with that forecast improvement, we do not see any effect on the markets. The Institute for Supply Management Index (ISM) for March at 10ET: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/napm.htm Here's an economic report that judges the sentiment of the managers of 18 manufacturing sectors. The poll asks for a thumbs up or down on the current state of business. Since it doesn't take size of firms into account, it lacks some credibility, yet it is given a letter grade of "A-" for market moving impact. With so many stimulus greenbacks about to be thrown around, we anticipate a sudden shock in positive sentiment soon. The positive sentiment will be scattered, yet it could lift other sectors in sympathy, so to speak. The change in sentiment will be a false signal as far as we're concerned because it will be triggered by inorganic type growth. Bigger governments have a tendency to smooth and sway sentiment and even employment figures as they throw money around, so be careful. We envision this ISM to begin reflecting a tiny bit of that positive sentiment, and then it'll continue for several quarters. The $64,000 question is whether the market will be fooled on this April 1st into buying a $10+ Trillion bigger government mentality or not: not us. Here's how we see it without getting too preachy: IF the ISM comes in above its 6 month average of 38.4 or higher, the market will explode up. IF the ISM posts below 35, the market will implode lower. Anything in between will only bring on contagious yawns. Don't get fooled today though! POTC predicts Thursday will bring the bear market rally back, so we recommend buying Wednesday afternoon IF the Dow dips 150+ points and either selling into Thursday's morning - midday rally, or swinging short Thursday afternoon, as we see Friday offering up a yet another reversal down.

Thursday, April 2nd brings us Initial Claims for Unemployment for week ending 3/28 at 8:30ET: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm POTC believes this report will give a false signal that things are improving. As pessimistic as we are, the market will probably rally hard Thursday. Prior weekly unemployed rang in at 651K, now the consensus is 645K - 653K. Although we will not position short ahead of this report, we will cheer IF the market rallies, and here's why. Friday's mother of all economic hammers brings us the fatter butter, the monthly employment percentage. And IF they rally this bear market higher Thursday because weekly statistics have improved by a few thousand, that will offer forward-thinkers/contrarians a fantastic opportunity to buy puts. We do not see the market closing on its highs, so prepare to execute short positions into the late morning/early afternoon buying frenzy, because smart hedge fund money will be selling into the bell. Before market earnings from Monsanto Company (MON), Q2 '09, revenue/sales estimates at $4.14B, last year same quarter revenue was $3.78B. Earnings per share estimates at $2.07, last year same quarter eps was $1.79. The shares have rallied in this angry bear growl of late and closed above their 200 day moving line of $82. You decide how to execute or not execute trade set-ups here; we're punting. After market earnings from: Global Payments Inc (GPN), Q3 '09, revenue estimates of $377M, last year same quarter revenue was $311M, a very nice improvement in any environment. Perhaps the credit card and casino processing businesses have not died? This is a very tough one to call. Earnings per share estimate is for $.42, last year was $.44, and here's where the truth is revealed. Rising sales due to GPN's account wins/scale, yet shrinking net profit margins. IF we had to toss the bones here, we'd be shorting or buying puts ahead of the report: GPN should revisit the sub $30 level before $40 in our opinion. Research in Motion (RIMM), Q4 '09, revenue estimate is for $3.4B, last year same quarter was $1.88B... very nice. Bottom line is pegged at $.84, compared to last year of $.72, and that we feel will be beat. POTC is biased toward RIMM. We believe the shares have been unfairly valued due to the Apple (AAPL) iPhone pricing model and carrier relationship advantages. Although Apple is arguably a top three technology company in the world, RIMM is not far behind. POTC does not believe RIMM will offer a doom & gloom business scenario, just the contrary. We sense RIMM has won a great deal of teen business in recent months and there's always a chance of a paradigm shift type business partnership/development. POTC, like the current change President, likes RIMM, GOOG, and AAPL, we recommend buying these Generals on any weakness.

Friday, April 3rd brings us the Unemployment rate for March: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/employ.htm This is referred to as the release that wields the heaviest hammer to market direction. The employment rate is arguably the best economic indicator we have in addition to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to gauge future growth or contraction. Even though it's backward looking, the percentage affects business, consumer, and government psychology. We sure hope it affects this budget that's pending that's built to destroy the principles of capitalism. Capitalism was NOT built on the shoulders of bigger government, but a let me live free and give me the ability to spend my own capital philosophy. Prior unemployment for February was 8.1%, now consensus is for 8.5%. Will anyone be fooled into believing things are improving when Obama is dipping his sticky fingers into just about every sector? What does free market mean to him anyway? Is it possible ignorant fools continue to bid this market higher, of course, bear markets have a way of gutting geniuses and idiots alike. Yet we will definitely be shocked IF the market rallies higher on what looks like a very high estimate of 8.5%. POTC predicts the market implodes 500+ Dow IF the rate comes in 8.4% or higher. IF it comes in below 8.3%, then they'll rally the bear higher. The Institute for Supply Management Services Index (ISM) for March comes at 10ET: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/napmserv.htm Prior was 41.6, consensus now is 42 - 43. The trend will only be exacerbated by this number, as it's current reading is at such depths. Smart traders got long late Wednesday and reaped the Thursday rally. Smarter traders swung short mid to late afternoon Thursday and stayed short through the weekend. IF this little weekend piece helped you change something for the better, please share our subscriber email with anyone you feel would appreciate it: Psychologyofthecall@gmail.com. The Psychology of the Call team wishes all forward-thinkers a happy & healthy April. As the saying goes, "Spring has Sprung and Love is in the Air, It's Everywhere": http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvTwFl6OIAk&feature=channel

Regulation and Stimulus are 4 Letter Words For Fiscal Conservatives; G20 Looks to Offer Us a Beautiful White Elephant Solution

LONDON (AFP)--World leaders including U.S. President Barack Obama will gather in London on Wednesday for final talks on the eve of a G20 summit dogged by divisions on how to tackle the economic crisis. Obama arrived here late Tuesday on his first major foreign visit since taking office, and will hold talks with many of the leaders of the Group of 20 developed and developing nations ahead of Thursday's official summit. But the differences between the leaders on how to tackle the global crisis were laid bare in a newspaper interview Wednesday with Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, who rejected German claims that fiscal stimulus was not the solution. While the United States and others favor stimulus to boost economic growth, European countries led by France and Germany are skeptical about spending more than they have, and insist tighter global financial regulation is the priority. "Because of the experience of the past 15 years, we know what is necessary, while countries like the U.S. and European countries may be facing this sort of situation for the first time," Aso told the Financial Times newspaper. "I think there are countries that understand the importance of fiscal mobilization and there are some other countries that do not - which is why, I believe, Germany has come up with their views." France had already raised the stakes by saying President Nicolas Sarkozy would walk out of the summit if leaders refuse to address his calls for stronger regulation to prevent such a crisis in the future. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck played down the likelihood, however, saying Berlin and Paris were expected to get their way. "There is a high probability that we will succeed in implementing better regulation and better supervision and make further achievements in overwhelming this financial turmoil," he told the BBC late Tuesday. The White House has rejected reports of any rift with European nations, and Obama has said any talk of regulation versus stimulus was a "phony debate". The president will hold talks Wednesday with U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the summit host, followed by discussions with Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Obama will also hold his eagerly anticipated first encounters with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and China's President Hu Jintao. The G20 leaders' presence in London has sparked a massive security operation across the capital, where a series of pro-environmental, anti-war and anti-globalization protests are planned over the next two days. On Wednesday, several demonstrations are planned to converge on the Bank of England, a march is planned on the U.S. embassy calling for foreign troops out of Afghanistan and Iraq, and pro-Tibet activists are also staging a rally. Brown has laid out five tests for success at the summit, including boosting the resources of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to help them increase lending to countries struggling with the global economic downturn. He also hopes to agree on proposals to clean up the banking system - including agreeing on global rules for bankers' pay - to do "whatever is necessary" to stimulate growth, and to resist protectionism and boost trade. But European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso has tried to play down expectations, saying the talks would not yield a "miracle solution" to the crisis and another summit may be needed later in the year. The scale of the crisis facing the G20 leaders is severe. The World Bank on Tuesday forecast a contraction of 1.7% in the global economy this year, the first such outcome since World War II. The 30-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development meanwhile predicted its member state economies would shrink 4.3% this year, warning the world economy was "in the midst of its deepest and most synchronized recession in our lifetimes." Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=l7owLFDn%2BkJrDg3iJlhMLA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 31, 2009 22:26 ET (02:26 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 10 26 PM EDT 03-31-09

Obama is Crossing the Public-Private Sector Line; POTC is Against Govt Involvement in ANY Free Market Sector; Capitalism's Rays Musn't be Bent

U.S. President Barack Obama believes a prepackaged bankruptcy is the best way for General Motors Corp. (GM) to restructure, Bloomberg News reported, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter. He also is prepared to let Chrysler LLC go bankrupt and be sold in pieces if it can't form an alliance with Fiat SpA (F.MI), Bloomberg said Tuesday on its Web site, citing members of Congress briefed on the subject and two other unnamed people familiar with the administration's deliberations. Bloomberg quoted GM spokeswoman Renee Rashid-Merem as saying in an e-mail: "Our focus is on accelerating the speed of our operational restructuring and reducing liabilities and debt on the balance sheet," and "GM will take whatever steps are necessary to successfully restructure our company." Chrysler spokesman Todd Goyer didn't immediately comment, Bloomberg said. Full story: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUFsRbmQyiJU&refer=home Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=l7owLFDn%2BkJrDg3iJlhMLA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 31, 2009 21:10 ET (01:10 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 09 10 PM EDT 03-31-09

Goldman's Mathematical Modeling Failures Cut their TARP Strings; Iwanowski & Carhart Offer Retirement Excuse; De Santis Off to Greener Pastures...

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES The co-heads of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s (GS) quantitative investment management group and of its Global Alpha hedge fund have retired, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday on its Web site. Mark Carhart and Raymond Iwanowski left the firm Tuesday, the company confirmed. In addition, senior portfolio manager Giorgio De Santis also has left the firm. Full story at www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=am0ec1vXu_9A&refer=home -Dow Jones Newswires; 201 938-5500 Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=l7owLFDn%2BkJrDg3iJlhMLA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 31, 2009 13:02 ET (17:02 GMT) Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 01 02 PM EDT 03-31-09

Tuesday's Lil Early Dance Will Not End on a High Note; Yet Our Short-Term Sentiment Changes Late Wednesday; Update Tuesday Night

Tuesday, March 31st brings Consumer Confidence at 10ET for March: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/conf.htm Prior confidence was an historically most dismal 25, now consensus calls for an improvement of 27-28. The psychology of this consumer confidence dance is bound to improve as we dig ourselves out of the snowy months, yet the policies being legislated cannot go over well with

most sane capitalists. Will the market react after this number? We don't think so since the S&P/Case Schiller Home Price Index for January that came before it at 9ET carries more the painful weight. Prior was minus (18.55%), consensus now calls for minus (18.5%). These kind of numbers are beyond depressing. The wealth destruction in the capital markets have moved into the residential real estate arena, and since equilibrium has not yet been reached, we cannot be optimistic the market will cheer even slight improvements for more than a few minutes. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March at 9:45ET: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/chi.htm Prior reading was 34.2, now consensus estimates are 34.7 - 36. This is a leading indicator and an important barometer of future business activity in the Chicago region. There are some traders who will establish positions into this report, and very few after the report unless it falls far from its mean estimate. For the market to go meaningfully higher, the Chicago PMI would have to break above its 6 month average of 38.4, and meaningfully lower if it broke below the previous 34.2, as most expect minor seasonal improvements from very cold February to less cold March. (Perhaps they'll blame the result on global warming, regardless if it comes in hot or cold)

Before Market Earnings from: Lennar Corp. (LEN), Q1 '09, average revenue estimate is $530M, year ago same quarter was $1.06B, that is a b for Billion. Bottom line or earnings per share are estimated to come in at minus (.$71), year ago same quarter was minus ($.56). Jim Cramer mentioned he likes the homebuilders on his Friday Mad Money program. Whether you like, hate, or are indifferent to Cramer, as forward-thinkers we will continue to offer opinions from talking heads who are in the spotlight. We do not recommend going long any homebuilders, only waiting for them to possibly dead cat bounce, then we'd think of shorting the false run-ups. The policies of this administration are working to crucify risk takers, so we anticipate any reflex bounces from sector to sector to be short lived. Jim Cramer disagreed with us on his Monday show, saying bears are wrong and Obama is no Hoover. Our answer is simple, while in the grips of a bear choke down, do not give the all clear signal. Comparing 1929 to 2009 is irresponsible Jim Cramer, the scope of today's global destruction of wealth has never before been felt before, not even in 1929. After market earnings from: Apollo Group Inc. (APOL), Q2 '09, average revenue estimate is $865M, year ago same quarter was $694M. Average earnings per share estimate is $.65, year ago same quarter was $.41. Even though the education sector seems like an Obama favorite, the fundamentals are growing nicely, and the shares are above their 200 day moving average. We recommend taking an intelligent, forward-thinking trading approach and ignoring the earnings and initial move up or down. Patience, patience, patience, not gambling. A lot of money is wasted by gambling ahead of earnings, and we confess to being guilty of that stinkin' thinkin' behavior in the recent past. Although there will be instances where we recommend going long or short ahead of earnings, they will be rare. We'd much rather our forward-thinkers ignore the initial moves up or down and then take advantage of the fear and greed in the over-reaction. We feel that is a more intelligent behavior than merely throwing the dice, like Jim Cramer does so often. Cramer is not a bad man, yet like the rest of us humans, he has his deficiencies and is not to be looked up to as an expert in this treacherous political environment.. That's precisely the reason we feel the Psychological Financial Fusion (PFF) ratio will be widely accepted a 21st century ratio. The political/policy analysis of the PFF ratio is what average investors were missing in either studying the arts in the charts or the fundamentals/accounting. Not too many investors/traders have the time to follow policies that are coming down the pipe, POTC does. PFF ratio of the S&P will be revealed in a special email and posting on Tuesday, April 7th. The PFF ratio's goal wil be to find that perfect recipe of technical, fundamental, and political/policy analysis, sprinkled with an intelligent dose of behavioral psychology. It will combine the lagging indicators of technicals & fundamentals with the all important leading indicator of game changing policies/legislation/bills ahead. The PFF ratio will be issued for S&P 500 index from month to month based on those three components. POTC believes it will be effective and accepted as a forward-looking indicator due to its forward-thinking/anticipating political component.

IF you think this piece was useful, or IF you believe the PFF ratio may be something to monitor, especially its change effect/percentage due to future DC policies, please help us spread the blog address. If you are not a subscriber, please send an email to: Psychologyofthecall@gmail.com and we'll add you to the growing list of fiscally conservative thinkers who are anxious to better understand what hurdles lay ahead~

Is the U.S. Govt Suddenly Making Free Market Decisions; Will We Allow Ourselves to Lose Control of our Capitalistic Society and Core Principles?

With bigger government weight over GM's Wagoner, his one free market eye was too stressed to go on. A sad day in American capitalism, a happy day for this scary change cabinet. Although still developing, many feel Wagoner was pushed out by Obama, and IF that is the case, the next CEO will be a mere global warming puppet.

POTC is not protecting Wagoner here at all, yet we are standing up for core free market principles. Rewarding success and punishing failure should be done by market forces, not government officials.

These donkeys must be remembered as total asses and ousted quickly. POTC predicts Obama will be powerless by the midterm 2011 elections:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_general_elections,_2010

We are confident the people of the United States will rise up to protect their core principles/values. Big government was and never will be the solution. It's beyond shameful what we are witnessing. Leaders from the Czech republic are quoted as saying Obama's policies are leading us to hell, supposedly German leaders feel the same way. How ironic the Europeans are standing up and telling us to wake up. Is it possible they know the system of change Obama is implementing, of course they do...

The people who bashed President Bush and for his war efforts after 9/11 are now facing a 11X

bigger budget deficit within one decade: http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/us_world/10-Trillion-Dollar-Man.html , not to forget an escalation of the war Obama and many of his donkeycrats claimed we had lost and would end! Maybe some truth there, yet Obama's campaign promises of ending the war(s) have been broken. Does anyone think that sports announcer Olbermann would ever address the truth, not us, yet there are morons who tune in to that cable channel. Please Americans, speak out and stand up before some dress code and curfew is enforced!

We are more than hopeful sanity will kick every donkey and elephant that voted for bigger government and the out of control spending out of their DC zoo by 2011.

With one eye smiling and the other one crying, we look-forward to that November 2nd, 2011 date with hope of change; change that will throw a lasso around this big spender and control freak currently residing at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Friday's Economic and Earnings Data

Friday, March 27th at 8:30ET brings Personal Income & Spending for February: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/income..htm

Prior income figure came in at 0.4%, now estimate is calling for a gloomy 0.5% swing down to minus (0.1%). Personal spending prior figure was 0.6%, and now estimates are for 0.3%, so down 50% month to month. These figures to us seem too pessimistic, although we do not recommend placing large bets/trades going into any Friday, ever. Seasoned traders usually raise cash into weekends, so even good news Fridays have what's called a lag effect.

At 9:55ET the Revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment is slated for release: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/mich.htm

Although we do not believe this will have a meaningful change on market direction, it probably will work to exacerbate the trend. After correctly predicting today's rally (see below) we predict a sell-off ahead of the weekend.

.

[In relation to Thursday's release of Gross Domestic Product we stated: "Prior reading was a scary minus (6.2%), consensus now is for minus (6.6%). IF that consensus is beat, so (6.5%) or less, then the market will rally. IF that (6.6%) is hit on the head or above (6.7%), the market will be in trouble. POTC believes the number will post bullish and long portfolios will be rewarded today." The posted number was (6.2%)]

There are no meaningful earnings before or after market this Friday.

Obama's Example of Control Over Free Markets

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Previewing his looming decision on the U.S. auto industry, U.S. President Barack Obama suggested struggling car makers will receive more federal aid, but added that the money will be contingent on the sector making "some pretty drastic changes." "We will provide them with some help," Obama said at an interactive town hall meeting in the White House. "I know that it is not popular to provide help to auto workers or to auto companies, but my job is to measure the costs of allowing these auto companies just to collapse versus us figuring out can they come up with a viable plan." Obama's auto-sector task force has been evaluating General Motors Corp. (GM) and Chrysler LLC to determine whether the firms merit another injection of government cash. The companies have requested $22 billion, including $9 billion for the second quarter. Obama said the administration would provide extensive details on its stance on the auto makers in the next few days. Allowing the firms to slide into bankruptcy could cost thousands of jobs across the industrial sector, not just at GM and Chrysler, but at hundreds of dealerships, suppliers and related companies. At the same time, the White House is under pressure not to bail out companies that critics say are a victim of their own mismanagement. Obama said all parties - shareholders, workers, creditors, suppliers, and dealers - would have to make concessions because the industry's current model, which he said relies on low gas prices, is unsustainable. "If they're not willing to make the changes and the restructurings that are necessary, then.. I'm not willing to have taxpayers' money chase after bad money," Obama said. "And so a lot of it's going to depend on their willingness to make some pretty drastic changes. And some of those are still going to be painful, because I think you're not going to see a situation where the U.S. auto makers are gaining the kind of share that they had back in the 1950s." Though he didn't detail a specific remedy for the sector, Obama made clear that he wants it to survive. "We need to preserve a U.S. auto industry," Obama said. "I think that's important. I think it's important not just symbolically, it's important because the auto industry is a huge employer, not just the people who work for GM or Ford or Chrysler, but all the suppliers, all the ripple effects that are created as a consequence of our auto industry." Thursday's event, moderated by Vice President Joe Biden's top economic adviser, Jared Bernstein, was billed as the first-ever interactive town-hall meeting by a president. The White House collected more than 104,000 questions from nearly 93,000 people this week. Over 3.6 million votes were cast for which questions should be lobbed at Obama. The president took questions submitted in writing, as well as via video, and from the live audience, which the White House said was made up of around 100 people, including teachers, nurses and business owners. The event was streamed live over the White House website. The top questions - on education, homeownership, outsourcing and health care - gave Obama a chance to tout the initiatives his administration has implemented through the $787 billion economic stimulus package or is pushing in its budget blueprint. Obama said Americans should be "patient and persistent" about the ailing labor market, warning that unemployment is likely to worsen in the months ahead. "I don't think we've lost all the jobs we're going to lose in this recession," he said, adding that the job market is likely to endure a "difficult time" over the next several months, and possibly into next year. The U.S. has lost 4.4 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007, with almost half of those losses coming in the last three months alone. For Obama, the town hall meeting is the latest in an aggressive public outreach campaign on his $3.6 trillion budget proposal and the steps the administration is taking to address the economic crisis. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Obama would use the forum to provide another "update" to the American people. "It's a way for the President to do what he enjoys doing out on the road, but saves on gas," Gibbs said Wednesday. -By Henry J. Pulizzi, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9256; henry.pulizzi@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=Ia%2B9%2FwQde7iSgF%2FbgehNXw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 26, 2009 13:36 ET (17:36 GMT)

S/P Above 820 is a Definite Sell; this Politically Noisy Bear Rally Will not Last; Please Keep Your Eyes & Ears Wide Open

Thursday, March 26th at 8:30ET brings Initial Claims for Unemployment for week ending 3/21: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm Prior number was 646K, now consensus is for 650K. Just like the existing and new home sales charts, the unemployment chart looks horrible. We reiterate about the problems with calling a bottom or turn in any spiraling market. Yet as traders we know that markets do not go straight down or straight up, so as these numbers are expected to come out bad, smart money usually buys ahead of these weekly reports. At such depths we only expect anomalies to occur to the upside, and that would exacerbate a bear market rally for Thursday. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Q4 comes at 8:30ET as well: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/gdp.htm Prior reading was a scary minus (6.2%), consensus now is for minus (6.6%). IF that consensus is beat, so (6.5%) or less, then the market will rally. IF that (6.6%) is hit on the head or above (6.7%), the market will be in trouble. POTC believes the number will post bullish and long portfolios will be rewarded today. Okay; how can we not remind you of the coincidence again of the low S&P print of 666 just weeks ago, and now a GDP number that's forecast to be minus 6.6%? So many 6's must have the conspiracy theorists blogging about the end time being near. Not us, yet we love to point out anything related to numbers and sprinkle in some comic relief; this is NOT an easy exercise, especially considering how dire the global macro environment is! Please read on... Before market earnings from Gamestop Corp. (GME), Q4 '09, revenues are estimated to come in at $3.45B, and that would be a substantial beat over last year's same quarter of $2.87B. EPS is expected to come in at $1.36, and last year's same quarter was $1.14. Perhaps the same beat Buffalo Wild Wings shocked the Street with is in store for Gamestop. Even though we are very concerned with pooled investments related to commercial real estate assets, there are exceptions in retailers, and POTC believes GME is one. Family Dollar (FDO) and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) are the other two. And if Sonic Corp. (SONC) goes through a management shake up, we would consider going long as well. Our target price on GME is much higher from where it's currently trading. Best Buy Inc. (BBY), Q4 '09, revenue estimates at $14.82B, up nicely year over year. As difficult it is to believe that many of these retailers are experiencing rising sales, we must point out that it's NOT as rosey a picture at BBY compared to GME. BBY's eps are supposed to come in at $1.39, and last year that figure was a fatter $1.71! With the fact Circuit City bankrupted, BBY could be an interesting buy if their revenues come in above $15B, so for aggressive traders who enjoy the shopping experience at Best Buy and feel revenues will surpass $15B, we recommend buying ahead of this report as well. We remind everyone of the phenomenon that it is truly a "market of stocks", not merely a "stock market". So as pessimistic as we are in our belief the S&P will eventually retest the old lows of 666, we do realize the opportunities in individual stocks from week to week nonetheless.IF you enjoyed any of the above analysis, please spread our blog email address to family and friends: Psychologyofthecall@gmail.com. Our team puts in roughly 18 hours of research per day in order to give a more scientific look to 21st century investment finance. And just how strange the free markets have become since the nearly overnight extinction of all five U.S. investment banks in 2008! The Psychology of the Call team.