Thursday, September 15, 2011

Q3's Stock Focus List, Subscription Info, and a Quick Explanation of the Lingering Socioeconomic Malaise~

'It's Time' for Q3's earnings. Here is our preliminary Focus List: AAPL, ACOR, AMZN, APKT, BIDU, CMG, CRM, DNDN, FCX, GOOG, GS, ISRG, LULU, MS, PCLN, STMP, REGN, and WFMI. Please read through the Psychological Financial Fusion (PFF ratio) Trade Alert and act by market close. You'll have 5.5 hours to earnings release to either buy a call, put, or do nothing. With the Post Earnings Trade Alerts (PETAs), be prepared to read through the entire analysis and act on market open. PETA's are sent after earnings, so the options are cheaper and offer a nice risk-reward profile. When most think they have missed a trade when a stock crosses up 5%+ CNBC, we know it's often only the beginning of making some Mad Money. For further clarification between a PFF and PETA, please go to the right margin. If you're not a subscriber, please sign-up through Paypal in the right margin. We chose Paypal since it is one of the most secure and trusted Internet payment processors. PFF ratio Trade Alerts require several 12+ hour days of studying financial statements, rewinding conference calls over and over, interpreting key news developments, technicals, politics, and the underlying psychology of share price with a forward-looking and often contrarian bent.

Our goal is to send subscribers: educational, aggressive, non-biased, well researched, and profitable Trade Alerts.

POTC remains firmly rooted in fiscal conservative principles. No bloated government agencies, bailouts, and stimulus packages is our mantra.

We are excited with the approaching 2012 Presidential campaign and election. We will introduce you to Capitalist Pig Bob's pigtailed girlfriend Tea Party Sally soon. They are currently on vacation somewhere on Maui.

Pig Bob believes the U.S. will drown in mediocrity if the politicians continue to rail against Wall Street and the average businessman trying to succeed at the American Dream.

The $500M+ loss in Solyndra as well as the NY Congressional seat should have jarred this Administration's intellect, yet we thought that before after Scott Brown and were proven very wrong. Obama's actions have been extremely partisan. This development is troubling, but especially after the November midterm 2010 demolition of democrats. If you buy a Quarterly or Yearly subscription by October 1, you'll receive our #1 stock to go long and #1 stock to go short for the next 6 months.

Shrewd global political forces will influence legislation or lack thereof in the weeks and months ahead. These forces will be especially evident as the October 27th Q3 GDP number posts at 9:30 am ET. POTC subscribers will be well informed ahead of all major market moving economic data points.

Obama's bloated government ensures extended suffering for the private sector. Our Capitalist Pig Bob despises this Administration's economic team as well as the FOMC's insistence on printing more and more money. A 0% interest rate policy has done nothing to nudge banking / credit / or real estate psychology. POTC believes that the cheap price of money (low interest rates) have extended the recession in housing and employment since it has created a confused and scared consumer. And this decades bad string of events: NASDAQ Bubble of 2000, Enron, 9/11 Terrorism, Wars, Bailouts and Stimulus, in conjunction with emergence of the technological efficiencies have all put the U.S. into a socioeconomic bind. The creation of an uneven global manufacturing playing field in terms of slave wages and then pegging of the Chinese Yuan to the U$D is an ongoing socioeconomic damnation. How China unwinds this peg and avoids inflation will be a case study. And if they don't unwind soon and U.S. GDP goes into the red (negative), it could spring social unrest in China and potential revolutions in orbital economically weak Euro countries like Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Italy. Growth is the key, and how does the U.S. get growth in GDP when pirating goods and software, combined with an extremely low minimum wage has been China's M.O. It's likely the hard working Chinese will stand-up for human wages if food inflation becomes a bigger issue in 2012.

The world faces very complex socioeconomic issues in the months and years ahead in POTC's opinion. Our team is prepared to analyze these comeuppances and send trade profitable trade suggestions as they arise. Are you excited and on board with us for Q3?

The average Chinese manufacturing wage is around $2.50/hour compared to the U.S.'s $16.00, a 540% difference. The Yuan peg to the U$D could be a major reason why the U.S. has zero growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Employment. Do you view the Eastern economies as a fair trading partners or do you think some are pirating too much, paying too little, and hence a thorn to GDP and Employment?

The latest banking crisis crippling Europe is reminding many of 2008 all over again. Yet the S&P is holding above 1, 100 as these massive structural global banking fault lines are exposed.

Hundreds of subscribers enjoy the one-on-one trading advice and assistance via e-mail. POTC's goal is very aggressive and profitable trade suggestions. Every subscriber receives the 11 Commandments that highlight key investment wisdoms regarding traditional as well as Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs).

The 11 Commandments stress and suggest more scientific trading parameters be employed. 'The 11 Commandos' are reviewed and refined with "Lessons Learned", as well as on your advice.

The aggressive trader must be nimble and defensive in order to be successful over time, two traits that are difficult to learn when greed is tempting us to act irrational. We always suggest strict trade triggers / parameters, whether booking profits or accepting losses.

Subscribers to the blog are a diverse bunch since 2008: United States, India, China via U.S. citizenship, United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, South Korea, Russia, Poland, Indonesia, Italy, Germany, France, Spain, Brazil, Philippines, Canada, Japan, Chile, Argentina, Bahamas, Argentina, and Mexico. Our team is confident that you will enjoy our trading information, advice, and assistance for years to come. Our short and long-term trade psychology is often times different than talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg, as their interests are usually 'Buy and Hold' and or influenced by large institutional clientele that are not able to trade due to the large commissions they'd incur. Our Trade Alerts are effective in pegging individual stock option as well as broad market S&P direction for all who aspire to trade S&P e-mini (ES), Gold (GC), and Crude Oil (CL) futures on electronic platforms that charge small fees, giving you a big cost advantage over the traditional stock broker / financial advisor.

We are humbled by your trust and ready for the Q3 battle. Let's Roll Down Wall Street Together~



Sunday, September 11, 2011

We Shall Never Forget September 11, 2001

May God bless all killed and every family member still grieving.

In Memory of Patriots like Todd Beamer and his men,
'Are you guys ready? Let's roll' were the last words his wife heard over the cell phone from Flight 93..


Sunday, September 4, 2011

Be Prepared for the Commodity Bull in Metals to End; 2012 U.S. and Chinese Elections in Focus.

POTC thanks Simon Jester for submitting  this forward looking piece. We first published a piece from Simon in October of 2009 (link). The piece was spot-on correct.

There is a rift between what the U.S. government reports regarding inflation and what the investing public experiences, a disparity not covered enough by the mainstream media. Identifying a long-term investment strategy that will outperform, during these times of experimental economic models, is the goal of my piece. 

'Wealthy' Americans, who had more than $1M in liquid assets in 2010, grew their wealth by about 9%. But I found that 9% number to be unimpressive when I dug deeper: official inflation numbers.

The Fed's quantitative easing (QE) rounds I & II forced investors away from traditional growth vehicles. Bonds outperformed stocks and commodities outperformed all since October of 2010.

If the Fed goes with Q3 III, I expect the same investor behavior. I do not think Q3 will occur as a new dawn in GDP growth is about to begin since this is an election year in the United States and China. And fiscal move to the center should work to loosen the stranglehold of fear and invite risk appetite back to the equation.   

When the so called wealthy have experienced modest gains to slight losses versus real consumer inflation, this must change soon or the current Administration will have little  chance to win another term. I feel something will be done in the Energy sector to stimulate jobs. I like natural gas business models as mounting pressure of national unemployment weighs. We could find out within a week if the Obama Administration is ready to stop over-regulating and begin creating jobs in the green pasture that is U.S. natural gas.  

Since the wealthy Americans have lost a good chunk of their net worth with the value of real estate, some government action in this area would bring back some confidence. The monetary side has been exhausted so now the fiscal side must begin to act or a second term has no chance. The wealthy are the job creating engines in the private sector, so the long-term market strategies that they legislate in the next few months should work for the wealthy first.

Short term market fluctuations will always allow active traders the opportunity to make money, especially if you use strict trading parameters: Psychology of the Call's (POTC) 11 Commandments are a good example. 

However, if you followed my advice after POTC published my first piece on October 27, 2009 you did wonderful. I outlined a value argument defending gold, silver, and farm commodities. Even corn beat real inflation numbers. The combination of those assets have outperformed every Holy Grail S&P money manager and mutual fund. I look forward to sending POTC more articles as this economic cycle develops and as my time permits.

Today I am backing away from the wealth retention / value argument of owning commodities and predict that we are in the early stages of witnessing the gold bubble burst. The next boom cycle will cause a bust in most commodities as investors jump from wealth retention to wealth generating vehicles. But I cannot tell you with certainty if this shift will occur gradually or suddenly. But I believe it will still be associated with better than expected global growth rates in GDP as fiscal stimulus measures take center stage.

Where should you place your bets now, CDs, Treasuries? Both still offer negative rates of return versus inflation but they are a way to retain wealth over what I think will be the worst place, gold and silver.

History shows us that commodity markets unwind with great passion, fervor, and volatility. Commodities are great when they work, but when they begin to rust, they are like a love story gone bad.

POTC has stated that the unwinding phenomenon in commodities often causes whipsaws in prices that destroy the most seasoned trader. 4%+ intraday swings in gold and silver will occur and impact the stock market (S&P) similarly. When we witness this volatility in metals, that could be a sign that money is moving out and will start being reallocated into stocks.

I envision money will flow out of commodities and stream into great businesses / stocks. For all looking to increase wealth, stocks should be the best show in town through 2012 at least.

My favorite sectors are technology and select energy, specifically natural gas. So what to buy?

Well, in a fearful economy there is always greater reward for risk. You have to be patient and not sell when everyone else is and vice verse.  My strategy is not short-term, I do expect jaggedness along the path. I will not panic as market scares repeat and offer opportunity.

Look for depressed industry leaders that experience a spike down in share price following quarterly earnings. In Technology, look into chip makers such as Intel (INTC) or Micron (MU). The financial health of a company is not tied to a single quarterly earnings release, it is tied to R&D and manufacturing capacity. So look for companies that are investing in the future, companies that have strong cash reserves. And then if they suffer a fall after a supposed 'bad' quarter, you should buy and hold them.

Caterpillar (CAT) had over a billion dollars in revenues last quarter and Wall Street was “disappointed.” Did you buy it when it dipped?

The emerging bust of commodities and the eventual “boom” of the stock market means that you must be looking around for bargains now. Buy like POTC suggests, incrementally in equal dollar amounts over a 3-week or even 6-month period. I am not a trader but an investor, but you could apply the way you build long-term positions to trading as well.

I cannot 100% predict what inflation will do or will not do, nobody can. But I know that if I invest in businesses with great management and competitive advantages when the cycle turns their way, I will make money. Countless “experts” are torn whether the commodity bubble will burst. So while they are debating, I recommend you should be building positions in my favorite stocks that could be up big by 2012.

Whether you like or hate Warren Buffet's politics lately, remember that he did have a vast majority of his investments in Coca Cola (KO) at one time. So the notion of buy quality when it dips and do not get discouraged; let the others get discouraged. Buy when they give up and are confused.

I consider favorable demographic winds continuing from the East, but especially China and India. If you can buy under one standard deviation from the historical average and sell one standard deviation above the historical average, you will guarantee yourself success. The key to this strategy is identifying long-term value stocks and using them as tools for creating wealth over time. Now is that time.

Over the last several weeks history was made with almost day to day 4% stock market whips, this was due to massive uncertainty. This massive uncertainty has created some real bargains in my opinion. I continue to suggest buying stocks for the long run. Right now I am very impressed with the R&D coming out of IBM for example.

Simon Jester's bottom line:
Buy innovative technology businesses and energy companies in the natural gas industry. If you accept my strategy of buying slowly and holding great businesses, you will be rewarded throughout the upcoming 2012 political / election year. Lastlt, I thank POTC for editing this piece as I work overseas and have limited computer access.

Capitalist Pig Bob Wants You to Know What Most Remain Silent About; Obama's Muslim Brotherhood Cabinet; the West and Jews Are in the Crosshairs..

The video below is a must watch in my porky opinion (impo),  'butt' especially Jews that vote for democrats. My pig heart hopes that Mr. Tarek's wisdoms jar their collective intellect.

If the stated Muslim Brotherhood's goal is to destroy Israel and the Western Devil, how could they be considered for employment in the White House?

Please listen to the part when Tarek mentions that Jews are being counted at a University in Canada. Could only imagine if this was done with any other religious group?
Some of our 'friends' are afraid of offending anybody, not my pig heart. 
After I learned that Obama has 3 Muslim Brotherhood cabinet members offering policy advice, that made me very upseet.

Capitalist Pig Bob
~Not Silent~