Monday, August 30, 2010

U.S. Econonic Calendar, Estimates, and Results ...

Tuesday, August 31 at 9:00 ET S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index for June, estimates are for 3.0% - 3.1% - Previous /July of 2009 was 4.61% 
Actual: *DJ S&P Case-Shiller 2Q US Natl Home Price Index +4.4% QQ
Actual: *DJ S&P Case-Shiller 2Q US Natl Home Price Index +3.6% YY
Tuesday, August 31 at 9:45 ET Chicago PMI for August, estimate are for 57.0 - 58.0 - Previous/July was 62.3
Actual: *DJ The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its business barometer fell to 56.7 in August, from 62.3 in July.
Tuesday, August 31 at 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence for August, estimates are for 49.5 - 50.0 - Previous/July was 50.40
Actual: *DJ US Conference Bd Aug Consumer Confidence 53.5 Vs Jul 51.0

Tuesday, August 31 at 2:00 ET: Minutes of FOMC Meeting from 8/10 will be released.
More of the same; confusion and uncertainty about the future weighs. Monetary policy has been exhausted in POTC's opinion. Quantitative easing without fiscal relief makes little sense to us. We believe Bernanke and his FOMC team must be more vocal and openly judge Obama's economic team as out of touch with reality. POTC believes the psychology of the consumer and businessman is unstable due to  current anti free-market policies.

Wednesday, September 1 at 8:15 ET: ADP Employment Change for August, estimates are for 0K - 13K private sector jobs created, Previous/July was 42K on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Actual: NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Private businesses laid off workers in August as only large companies hired last month, according to data released Wednesday.
Private-sector jobs in the U.S. fell by 10,000 last month, according to a national employment report published by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers.
Wednesday, September 1 at 10:00 ET: Construction Spending for July, estimates are for (-0.5% -0.7%) - Previous/June was +0.1%
Actual: *DJ US Construction Spending -1.0% In Jul; Consensus -0.5% - Worse, yet expected.

Wednesday, September 1 at 10:00 ET: ISM Index for August,  estimates are for 52.9 - 53.0 - Previous/July was 55.5
Actual: *DJ US ISM Aug Manufacturing PMI 56.3 Vs Jul 55.5 - VERY IMPRESSIVE for consumer psychology in our opinion.
Caveat: ISM is a highly overrated index. It is only a survey of purchasing managers. It is a diffusion index, it reflects the number of people saying conditions are better compared to the number saying conditions are worse. It does not weight for size of the firm, or for the degree of better/worse. It can therefore underestimate conditions if there is a great deal of strength in a few firms. The data have thus not been either a good forecasting tool or a good read on current conditions during this business cycle. It must be recognized that the index is not hard data of any kind, but simply a survey that provides broad indications of trends.

Wednesday, September 1 at 10:30 ET Crude Inventories for 8/28,  no estimates available - Previous for week ending 8/21 was a build of 4.11M barrels.
Actual: *DJ DOE: US Crude Oil Stocks 3.4M Bbl build At 361.707M Bbl

Thursday, September 2 at 8:30 ET: Initial Claims for 8/28, estimates are for 475K - Previous week ending claims were 473K.
Actual: *DJ US Jobless Claims -6K To 472K In Aug 28 Wk; Survey -3K - Slight improvement, we're not impressed.

Thursday, September 2 at 8:30 ET: Productivity-Revision for Q2, estimates are for (-1.4% -1.7%) - Previous was (-0.9%).
Actual: *DJ US 2Q Non-Farm Productivity Revised -1.8%, Prelim -0.9%

Thursday, September 2 1at 10:00 ET: Factory Orders for July, estimates are for 0.1% - 0.3% - Previous/June was 1.2%
Actual: *DJ US Factory Orders +0.1% In Jul; Consensus +0.2%

Thursday, September 2 at 10:00 ET: Pending Home Sales for July, estimates are for (-0.0% -1.0%) - Previous/June was (-2.6%).
Actual: *DJ US Pending Home Sales Index +5.2% To 79.4 In Jul - NAR - First rise in 3 months.

Friday, September 3 at 8:30 ET: Nonfarm Payrolls for August, estimates are for (-106K -120K) - Previous/July was (-131K).
Actual: =DJ DATA SNAP: US Aug Nonfarm Payrolls -54K; Jobless Rate 9.6%

Friday, September 3 at 8:30 ET: National U.S. Unemployment Rate for August, estimates are for 9.6% - Previous/July was 9.5%
Actual: 9.6%
Friday, September 3 at 10:00 ET: ISM Services for August, estimates are for 51.0 - 53.0 - Previous/July was 54.3
Actual: *DJ US ISM Aug Non-Mfg Employment Index 48.2 Vs Jul 50.9 - Very Negative.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Mumbai's Dalal Street Looks to Tuesday's GDP Data; Sensex's Influence on S&P Eyed ...

"The expansion in the Indian economy is estimated to match up the growth of 8.6% seen in the last quarter of the fiscal 2009-2010," according to domestic brokerage house SMC.

Actual GDP for India: Growth in the manufacturing and services sector helped India's economy to grow by its fastest pace in more than two years at 8.8% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year.

Here's the equivalent to the U.S. Wall Street journal in India: Dalal Street Investment Journal.

Monitoring economic statistics from overseas is important, especially China, India, and Japan.

Asian economic data is having more and more  influence on U.S. S&P futures.

Indian GDP is scheduled to post Monday night (U.S.), so expect S&P futures to react either up or down ahead of Wall Street's Tuesday open.

Eurozone GDP is important, but the most exciting growth is coming from Asia.

Here's a chart of the Indian Sensex Index:

Red Blooded Americans Rally Against the $1 Trillion Stimulus and 10% Unemployment; Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin Understand that Government Spending has Backfired and Poses Threats to Individual Freedoms and National Security ...

Capitalist Pig Bob, POTC's lead political correspondent insisted we give credit to Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin for their weekend rally in D.C. against big government spending, higher taxes, more restrictions and regulations in our daily lives. We gladly honored his request. Here's a story that was copied and pasted from myway: Though POTC is not endorsing any specific candidates, but we are rooting for all candidates that believe Obama's tax and spend policies are detrimental to psychology, restraining the organic and evolutionary watering can of free-market growth: Supply-Side-Economics.

Beck rally signals election trouble for Dems
WASHINGTON (AP) - If Democrats had doubts about the voter unrest that threatens to rob them of their majority in Congress, they needed only look from the Capitol this weekend to the opposite end of the National Mall.

It's where Ken Ratliff joined tens of thousands of other anti-government activists at the foot of the Lincoln Memorial for conservative commentator Glenn Beck's "Restoring Honor" rally.
"There's gotta' be a change, man," said Ratliff, a 55-year-old Marine veteran from Rochester, N.Y.
Neither Democrats nor Republicans can afford to ignore the antiestablishment fervor displayed Saturday during Beck's rally that took on the tone of an evangelical revival.
Billed as a nonpolitical event, it nevertheless was a clarifying moment for those curious as to what clout an anti-Washington sentiment could have on midterm congressional elections in November. The gathering was advertised as an opportunity to honor American troops. But it also illustrated voters' exasperation - and provided additional evidence that Democrats in power - as well as some incumbent Republicans - may pay the price when voters go to the polls.
The tea party is essentially a loosely organized band of anti-tax, libertarian-leaning political newcomers who are fed up with Washington and take some of their cues from Beck. While the movement drew early skepticism from establishment Republicans, these same GOP powerbrokers now watch it with a wary eye as activists have mounted successful primary campaigns against incumbents.
The Beck rally further demonstrated the tea party activists' growing political clout.
If the GOP is able to contain and cooperate with the tea party, and recharge its evangelical wing with Beck-style talk of faith, it spells the kind of change Ratliff and others like him are searching for.
The promise of change helped President Barack Obama win the White House in 2008, but could turn against his fellow Democrats this year. Americans' dim view of the economy has grown even more pessimistic this summer as the nation's unemployment rate stubbornly hovered near 10 percent and other troubling economic statistics have emerged on everything from housing to the economy's growth.
That's been a drag on both congressional Democrats and the president. While Obama has shelved his soaring campaign rhetoric on change, Beck has adopted it.
At Saturday's rally, the Fox News Channel personality borrowed Obama's rhetoric of individual empowerment from one of the then-candidate's favorite themes on the 2008 campaign trail.
"One man can change the world," Beck told the crowd. "That man or woman is you. You make the difference."
Or change Washington. And while Beck didn't say so, that means change the party in power.
His followers got the message.
"A lot of people want our country back," said Janice Cantor. She was raised a Massachusetts Democrat and is now a North Carolina tea party activist.
Beck's religion-laden message was a departure from most tea party events, which tend to focus on economic issues.
Beck, who speaks openly about his Christian faith on his radio and cable news shows, relied heavily on religion during his speech, perhaps offering up a playbook for tea party activists and Republicans this November.
Earlier, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin urged the gathering to change the course of the nation, although she said "sometimes our challenges seem insurmountable."
"Look around you," she told the crowd. "You're not alone."

Friday, August 27, 2010

Is Paul Volcker the "Giant Great Hope" that Will Fight for Accommodative Tax Policies During this Psychological Crisis of Confidence Caused By Inept Obama Economic Eggheads?

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--An advisory panel led by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker on Friday issued a laundry list of ideas to reduce the headaches brought on by tax filing.
Options included in the report include a pre-filled tax form that the IRS mails out, which would only require a signature for some taxpayers with uncomplicated returns. The report includes a host of proposals to streamline the tax code, like combining the child tax credit and dependent exemptions into a single "family credit."
The long-awaited report provides "helpful advice" to the Obama administration and Congress, according to its preface, but does not endorse specific proposals. However, the options included in it are likely to inform policy-makers' discussions in the coming years on how to simplify and overhaul the U.S. tax system.
The members of the panel also put a cut in the corporate tax rate on the table. They detailed several options that could raise revenue to finance such a cut, including limiting businesses' ability to deduct interest expense.
The members of the Volcker panel are slated to discuss the 126-page report during a public meeting scheduled for 2 p.m. EDT Friday.
-By Martin Vaughan, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9244;
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 27, 2010 12:12 ET (16:12 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 12 12 PM EDT 08-27-10

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Grand Tetons Minus Min; Looks To Be An Interesting Get-Together this Friday and Saturday ...

Jan 2010 Davos, Switzerland recap:
Chinese central banker Zhu Min warned that tighter US monetary policy could spark a sudden outflow of capital from emerging markets, evoking the 1990s Asian financial crisis. 

Though the U.S. FOMC has not initiated tighter monetary policy since Davos, POTC believes traders must monitor for signals to the affirmative. We have an equity situation that could  return 20%+ (within 3 months) when a more hawkish interest rate tone prevails.

If you are not yet a subscriber to this blog but would like to receive our trade suggestions and analysis,  please use the Paypal link in the right margin to begin an educational experience. 

August 25, 2010 breaking:
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--At their annual meeting in the Grand Tetons, the world's top central bankers may provide clues on what, if anything, can be done to help a global economic recovery that's quickly losing steam.
Some of the world's biggest economies -- notably the U.S. -- are slowing sharply and central banks are looking at what options they have left to bolster growth. That is in stark contrast to June, when finance officials from the main economies met in South Korea as the global recovery was moving faster than expected and central banks were focusing on how to unwind the huge stimulus used in 2008 and 2009 to fight a severe recession.
The highlight of the Aug. 27-28 meeting of central bankers and academic experts in Jackson Hole, Wyo., is likely to be Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech, which kicks off the meetings Friday morning. The Fed chief could provide hints on what the U.S. central bank's next move might be. In turn, this could influence monetary policy decisions at central banks from the other big economies.
With short-term interest rates already at record lows in the U.S., Europe and Japan, the central banks' traditional tool to jump-start the economy is no longer a viable option. But central bankers still have the power to purchase government bonds and other securities, something the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England did successfully while fighting the financial crisis, by helping to push long-term interest rates down.
The effectiveness of buying assets in further stimulating the economy is, however, questionable since long-term rates are already at very low levels. Still, it may be the best option left. Governments around the world seem reluctant spend more or cut taxes further. As a result of combating the crisis and the ensuing recession over the past few years, governments now have huge budget gaps, a situation which contributed to a sovereign debt crisis in Europe in May.
"With most governments on course to withdraw fiscal stimulus, the onus is mostly on central bankers to keep the expansion going," said David Hensley, economist at J.P. Morgan Chase in New York.
After more than year since output started to grow again in the U.S., the unemployment rate remains at a high 9.5% and the recent increase in jobless claims indicates it could rise further. Home sales plunged in July and durable goods orders rose less than expected, spurring fears of renewed weakening in the broader economy.
In a move that surprised several Fed watchers, the U.S. central bank decided at its last meeting Aug. 10 to reinvest some $350 billion in proceeds of expiring mortgage-backed securities into U.S. Treasurys to counter a weaker than expected recovery. Only a week before, Bernanke had given no hint of such a move in his speech in Charleston, sticking to the line that the U.S. economy would continue to recover at a moderate pace. The move effectively shifted the Fed's stance back to neutral after officials spent most of the first half of the year focused on "exit strategies."
Some officials opposed the move, fearing it could send the message that the Fed was too worried about the economy. The other big problem is that buying more assets may not be as effective as in the past. Bernanke's speech in Jackson Hole will be closely eyed to gauge at what point the Fed could step in again to bolster a sluggish economy - and how much fire-power it's ready to use.
"The threshold (for more Fed action) is going to turn out to be much lower than most (Fed officials) think," said Laurence Meyer, a former Fed board governor now with consulting firm Macroeconomic Advisers LLC. If the Fed does move, Meyer believes it needs to buy $2.0 trillion assets to really have an impact. The Fed bought $1.7 trillion to fight the financial crisis in a program which ended in March and is credited with lowering long-term rates by around half of a percentage point.
Whether the Fed decides to ease policy could have huge implications for other major economies also preoccupied with slowing growth rates, especially if it leads to a weaker U.S. dollar. If the Fed decides to purchase more assets, it could prompt Japan to also ease policy to prevent the yen from rising further against the dollar.
Japan's growth slowed sharply in the second quarter as stagnant consumption and flagging exports weighed on an economy already hobbled by a long period of deflation. A further rise in the yen could deal another blow to Japan's export-driven economy.
Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan recently said he would cooperate closely with the Bank of Japan to deal with the impact of a strong yen. The remark suggests the central bank may come under pressure to ease policy. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will attend the Jackson Hole event and may discuss the country's easing options with other central bankers. The easiest choice could be for the Bank of Japan to expand a three-month emergency loan facility that was introduced in December.
A weaker U.S. dollar could also hurt China and Europe. The economy of the 16 countries that share the euro grew at a healthy pace in the second quarter. Germany's best performance since reunification more than offset slow growth in Greece, Spain and Italy -- largely thanks to an export boom that was helped by a weaker euro.
China, which has benefited from exports thanks to an undervalued currency, has also seen an economic slowdown. A string of reports have largely pointed to a cooling in the pace of growth in what had been a main driver of the global economy's rapid expansion.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is due to speak at the Jackson Hole lunch Friday, while no official from China's central bank is scheduled to attend.
(Luca Di Leo, a special writer with Dow Jones Newswires, has been reporting on the global economy since 2000, first from Europe and more recently from the US. He can be reached at 202-862-6682 or via email at
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Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 25, 2010 11:48 ET (15:48 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 11 48 AM EDT 08-25-10

Jim Cramer of CNBC's Mad Money is a Hard Working Monolith ...

POTC believes his long only advice proves he's hog tied and in a difficult position, 'butt' our lead political correspondent, Capitalist Pig Bob, thinks Cramer has confused  millions of investors around the world by skirting the politics of money and banking in the face of an anti private sector Administration until just recently. Dear Jim Cramer: you needed 1 1/2 years to figure out this big government bullshit?
We would like to hear Jim Cramer explain to his massive CNBC audience that his "Action Alerts Plus" service is one-sided and reflects a far different behavior than he practiced as a money manager.

Every trader must understand the market has two sides, long and short. Sometimes the averages are overbought and sometimes they're oversold. The, who Jim is Chairman of, is doing a huge disservice by only recommending going long~

POTC prides its research on open-mindedness and a two-sided market approach, so when we see Jim r spread monolithic type (long only) advice, we feel obliged to call him and his Street dot com out.

IF Jim Cramer has a problem with our thesis, we are open to debate him or his staff in ANY forum any day and time of the week.

And most serious investors who tune Cramer in must be wondering WHY he finally began addressing the anti free-market policies of Barack Obama; something POTC has been blogging about successfully since early 2008; even before the Chicago Precinct Captain was elected Disseminator in Chief..

Sincerely, the Psychology of the Call team.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Clean Energy (CLNE) Stock Trade Alert Issued ...

The Psychology of the Call team (POTC) sent all subscribers a time-sensitive Trade Alert before today's market open. Exact time parameters for entry were set, portfolio percentage limits, as well as profit and loss triggers.

If you would like to receive our future Trade Alerts, please subscribe through Paypal and witness our market, stock, and option calls.

Click to view CLNE's 10-K

Here's a snapshot of their business:
CLNE provides natural gas as an alternative fuel for vehicle fleets in the U.S. and Canada. The Company designs, builds, finances and operates fueling stations and supplies its customers with compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG). CLNE also produces renewable biomethane, which is used as vehicle fuel, through its landfill gas joint venture. It also provides natural gas conversions, alternative fuel systems, application engineering, service and warranty support and research and development for natural gas vehicles, through its wholly owned subsidiary, BAF Technologies, Inc. In addition, the Company supports its customers acquire and finance natural gas vehicles and obtain local, state and federal clean air rebates and incentives. On October 1, 2009, the Company acquired 100% of BAF Technologies, Inc. (BAF).

Here's what 'Fool' Johnny Del Vecchio thinks of CLNE.

Japan's Nikkei Plummets; Yen at 15-Year High vs U$D ...

TOKYO, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average hit a 15-month closing low below 9,000 points on Tuesday, with hedge funds and foreigners seen selling amid mounting concern about the authorities' inaction on a strong yen, which threatens a fragile economic recovery.
Market players said the close below the keenly-watched 9,000 level would likely feed downward momentum, with few technical targets to break the benchmark's fall.
Market disappointment remained keen after Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa only spoke over the phone on Monday, foregoing a long-expected meeting, with no concrete action to counter yen strength that could hobble Japan's export sector and hit the economy.
"Though nobody expects much from the government, the market really needs a strong message from the BOJ on measures to deal with deflation and the strong yen," said Takashi Ushio, head of the investment strategy division at Marusan Securities.
The dollar edged back down towards a 15-year low against the yen struck earlier this month, slipping below 85 yen in afternoon trade. The euro hit a nine-year low against the Japanese currency.
The benchmark Nikkei shed 1.3 percent or 121.55 points to 8,995.14, its lowest close since May 2009, after earlier falling as far as 8,983.52. The broader Topix lost 0.9 percent to 817.73.
Market players said foreign investors and hedge funds were sellers, but that much of the day's slide was powered by individual investors losing heart and dumping shares.
A few said there appeared to be some light buying by pension funds at the lows and that some other investors could be bargain-hunting, but they added that most players were reluctant to take on the necessary risk.
So far this year, the Nikkei has been one of the world's worst-performing markets, which analysts largely blame on the yen's advance and its impact on exporters.
The MSCI Japan index is down roughly 10.4 percent so far this year, while the MSCI All-Country World Index has shed 5.9 percent in the same period.
By contrast, the MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan has fallen just 2.8 percent.
"While countries around the world are letting their home currencies weaken to protect their economies, Japan isn't doing anything about its currency," said Kenichi Hirano, operating officer at Tachibana Securities.
"Whether that's good or bad is beside the point at this stage, and Japan has to do the same as its peers in the world."
The Nikkei's next target stands at 8,697, a 61.8 percent retracement of the rally between its March 2009 low and April 2010 high, but few significant targets are seen below that.
"There aren't a lot of natural stopping places, and in some situations we could see it fall in 500-point increments. On the charts, there aren't a lot of good points to watch for either," said Toshiyuki Kanayama, a market analyst at Monex Inc.
But by some technical measures, the Nikkei is starting to look oversold and perhaps due for a bit of a rebound.
Its relative strength index (RSI) fell to 36, with 30 and under considered oversold, while its slow stochastic fell into oversold territory.
The Nikkei also fell near its lower Bollinger Band.
Among the broad selling, exporters in particular lost ground, with Sony Corp falling 3.7 percent to 2,406 yen, Canon Inc sliding 0.9 percent to 3,520 yen and Tokyo Electron shedding 3.8 percent to 4,100 yen.
Nomura Real Estate Holdings fell 6.3 percent to 1,119 yen after Credit Suisse cut its rating on the company to "underperform" from "neutral", citing the potential risk of valuation losses and uncertainty about the level of those losses.
But defensive stocks such as drugmakers, seen as resilient in the face of turbulent conditions overseas, bucked a slide in the overall market as exporters fell due to worries about the yen's strength.
Eisai Co gained 1.5 percent to 3,055 yen and Daiichi Sankyo Co climbed 2.4 percent to 1,678 yen. Cosmetics firm Shiseido Co added 0.4 percent to 1,875 yen.
Trade was thin on the Tokyo exchange's first section, with 1.5 billion shares changing hands, a day after booking volume of 1.28 billion yen, a two-week low.
Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones by more than 2 to 1. (Reporting by Elaine Lies; Editing by Joseph Radford)

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Marc Up! Cloud Computing, Smart Phones, and Social Networks are HOT; But HOW to Trade this Paradigm?

We've just witnessed a truly innovative anti-software cloud computing company (CRM) post an impressive quarter and forward look.

POTC believes CEO and founder Marc Benioff ..

To receive this write-up and subscribe to our stock and option Trade Alerts, please sign-up through Paypal in the right margin. As it would be a shame for anyone to go to the left for any fiscal or monetary advice.

Best Wishes,
The entire Psychology of the Call team.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Market Facts, Sentiment, and Active Management Suggestions ....

Few economists forecast today's disastrous economic data: 500,000 new/initial weekly unemployment claims and a manufacturing swing number of negative 7.7% from the Philly Federal Reserve region for August compared to July's positive 5.1%. Either the economy is failing fast or these numbers are both anomolies that struck on the same morning.

POTC believes the equity market will head lower from here (S&P 1,078), and ripple effects through Asia and Europe will be dark.
National unemployment rate for August will post September 3, Friday. For July, the rate was 9.5%, now that rate looks to creep closer to 10% than 9%.

Bad memories return, trading opportunites abound ..
Back in early 2009, Obama's economic team openly stated on CNBC the national unemployment rate would not rise above 8.1% if the $787B stimulus bill passed; stimulus passed and we're on the verge of breaking 10%. 

This economic Change team should resign, like the messenger of that 8.1% promise did (Peter Orszag), or be fired for ineptitude. 

With Labor Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas and other holidays just around the corner, the psychological impact of a 10%+ unemployment rate will crimp consumer spending.

Though some argue this negative data will force the Administration to extend the Bush taxes, we're not convinced after witnessing 18 months of this Change cabinet.

Nearly every policy has been to expand the government at the expense of the private sector. Holding out hope for this president to enact any market friendly measures has become more and more naive.

The longer this Administration drags its feet, the less effect it will have. If they don't do anything within one week from today (August 19), bond prices will continue to rise and stocks drop; the S&P will have a good chance to break below 1,000 very quickly in our opinion.

All of POTC's paying subscribers received specific suggestions on what and how to trade the scenario we see unfolding ...

Monday, August 16, 2010

Administration Goes After Private Again, Public is Off-Limits; Unemployment Rate in Focus ...

POTC believes Jimmy Carter's Department of Education (ED) should be disbanded; another dump for taxpayers' money.

Secretary of Education Arne Duncan is just another useless shill in this Change cabinet. Anyone taking notice of the Chicago political clout in B.O.'s hires? POTC is ...

Just as every person isn't able to afford a house as B.O.'s cronies pushed and continue to push for, not every person has the mental and emotional fortitude to finish college.

"Shares of for-profit education companies slid Monday as government data showed that many of their students aren't repaying school loans, which could imperil the ability of their students to receive federal financial aid, the bulk of the schools' revenue". 
Yet no government agency should bully its rules on any private sector in an economic downturn in our opinion. Unless that govt agency applies the same rules to its own, in this case the broken public school system under the auspices of Arne Duncan.
"The validity of the (ED)'s 'data dump' is suspect, in our view, given the shockingly low repayment rate for Strayer University," said Jeffrey Silber, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets. Strayer Education Inc. (STRA) has said in the past it believed its programs would pass the government's test, and calculated its own student debt repayment rate at 55.4 percent, rather than the ED's finding of 25 percent.

A familiar tune from B.O. and his cronies is reverberating throughout the stock market and ruining investors once again. The intellectual donkeys are changing the rules and tightening the clamps on another private sector, this time education.

Perhaps STRA should file a federal lawsuit against this Administration since Peter Orszag promised Unemployment would not surpass 8.1% if the $700B+ stimulus bill was passed; today's real unemployment rate is 15% in some states ...

Just as they berated Wall Street for months and finally shook Goldman Sachs (GS) down for $550M, now private education is their target. Some analysts think the monetary penalties from ED could be enough to force many private schools to shut their doors.

Government sponsored enterprises of Freddie (FRE) and Fannie (FNM) were never mentioned in H.R.4173 - Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act; not once. We assume public schools are either off limits or treated with kid gloves as the economy is stagnant and unemployment rate soars; graduates of every school will difficulties paying back their loans. Why punish the private sector in one of the worst cyclical downturns?

The American people must begin paying more attention to these policies or welcome in a post capitalism  type of Quick-Fix-Socialism. The United States has endured a lot of stresses since 9/11, including Enron, accounting scandals at Arthur Andersen LLP, hurricane Katrina, the oil spike, and the ongoing credit and real estate problems. Yet we do not think any of those besides 9/11 holds a candle to the blatant anti free-market behavior directed at the private sector from this Administration.

This Change Administration is satisfying the ultimate goals of the 9/11 terrorists: to annihilate the United States' private sectors through one-sided restrictions, regulations, and intimidations. But why this is being done from within is unfathomable to us.

Thinking back on that morning of 9/11 shock; fog of death and stench in the air, men and women jumping from buildings, body parts strewn over sidewalks and roofs, others buried under molten metal, and the terrorists motivations were to do exactly what B.O. is doing "legally" today; collapsing the private sector at every chance. God forbid another 9/11 under such a heavy handed government and naive American people who voted for this Change.

Even if this Administration addresses mistakes with the Wall Street Reform Act, FRE and FNM, with the Department of Education as related to public schools' problems with loan repayments, with the Department of Energy's mistakes of not allowing drilling onshore and then forcing private companies to drill deep wells ... Well, we are not foolish enough to believe they would address any of those transparently and right their wrongs.

Though there will be a meeting to address FRE and FNM this week, we know it's just another mirage like the one pulled on the elephants in that televised health care meeting. And this was post Scott Brown's supposed crippling win? POTC believes the elephants are 100X more free-market thinkers, yet they have been duped of late big time.

This double standard of lynching the private sector and growing the public sector must end soon; and hope it happens peacefully.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

QZP on Sears (SHLD) Sent Red-Eye Sunday ...

SHLD is releasing their Q2, fiscal 2011 earnings on Thursday, August 19th before market open. POTC has identified several short-term catalysts that could propel shares ~higher or lower~

This SHLD Quick-Zoom-Psycho (QZP) analysis  hit your mailboxes late Sunday night. We wanted you to have until Wednesday's market close to review and act on the analysis.

We look forward to our PFF ratio Trade Alerts starting up again soon.  

If you aren't a subscriber yet, please sign-up for a Quarter (5 Trade Alerts) or Year (20+ Trade Alerts) through Paypal in the right margin. 

POTC was a perfect 5 - 5 last Quarter: GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, CME, and FSLR.

Don't miss these in-depth Trade Alerts,
Thank You for visiting the blog.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Intraday Trade Alert on Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) ..

A market volatility Trade Alert has been sent to all subscribers at 2 ET.

We have set entry parameters based on S&P value before close.

All subscribers will receive e-mail updates regarding ISRG as the trade develops.

Friday, August 6, 2010

Updates on CREE Complete; Position Closed, Failure Target Triggered ..

We sent the Quick-Zoom-Psycho (QZP) option Trade Alert on CREE to all subscribers Tuesday, August 10th at 11 AM ET.

The QZP is the little cousin of our in-depth Psychological Financial Fusion (PFF ratio) option Trade Alert performed on Generals like: AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, CME, FSLR, GOOGGS, ISRG, PCLN, and other liquid names during the height of the earnings season.

Q3 will begin the first week in October with 5 PFF ratio Trade Alerts. POTC will issue our Focus List of companies in mid September; it will include at least 8 names in order to avoid conflicts of two stocks reporting the same day.

Here's the link to CREE's fiscal 2010 Q4 conference call 

Here's the last SEC Form 10-K filed by CREE in August of 2009 (annual report)

POTC Welcomes Every New Subscriber With Open Arms,
~Let's Roll Down Wall Street Together~

Europe's High Equity Yields Signal Weakness; Risk Appetite Shifting to Asia, the Last Hope for Exciting Capitalism ...

=DJ HEARD ON THE STREET: Europe's Eye-Catching Dividends

European equities may have bounced back over the past month as sovereign fears have eased. But all the major indices with the exception of Germany's Dax are still down since the start of the year. And with many companies announcing increased dividends during the current results season, many European stocks now offer juicy yields.
Average dividend yields on European stocks are now higher than those on government bonds for only the third time in 30 years. On the last two occasions, in early 2003 and 2009, that heralded a rally in equities. But although equity markets are below long-term price to book ratios, and European stocks have rallied in recent weeks, analysts are cautious about forecasting big gains, noting an uncertain growth outlook and lingering fears on sovereign debt. That is good news for income investors.
This year, European equities will yield 4.1%, estimates UBS, almost twice that of US peers. That's above the current yield on AA-rated corporate bonds (3.3%) and the coupon on a 10-year government bond for a weighted average of 11 euro-zone countries (3.6%). Unlike the latter two, dividend yields are well above their ten-year average.
True, dividends can be cut. Payments have been slashed some 40% since 2008, versus cuts of less than 30% in the last three recessions. The cancellation of BP's dividend June took 12% off forecasts for UK companies' second quarter payments, notes Capita Registrars. Corporate earnings could still disappoint: UBS forecasts of 24% European earnings growth in 2010 and 10% in 2011 compare with a 7% long-run average, and a contraction last year and in 2008.
But corporate cash balances are at or near all-time highs, and gearing at multi-year lows. Companies are slowly returning to the acquisition trail: July's M&A deal volume globally was the highest this year, notes Dealogic, with Europe leading the way. But dividend payments still look sustainable: dividend cover at 1.6 times free cash-flow is in line with a 10-year average, notes UBS.
And although dividend payments from banks, typically around a quarter of Europe's highest-yielding stocks, are still disappointing, the telecoms, utilities and energy sectors are all yielding a respectable 5-6%, notes JP Morgan. Investors should take note.
(Hester Plumridge is a writer for Heard on the Street. She can be reached on +44 20 7842 9267 or
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 06, 2010 07:36 ET (11:36 GMT)
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