Thursday, April 29, 2010

Bearish on BIDU from $710.00: Two Headline Risks Noted ...

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Wednesday, April 28, 2010

BIG Congratulations to ALL, Patients and Traders Alike !!!

Dendreon (DNDN) manufactures PROVENGE, a ground-breaking vaccine for treatment of Metastatic Castrate-Resistant Prostate Cancer (CRPC). The FDA decided to approve this non-traditional vaccine today, we are extremely excited for everyone affected by this incredible news. If interested in free and ongoing technical snapshots of DNDN via email after this long awaited FDA approval, Click here.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

FSLR Analysis and Update Post Earnings and PFF ratio Explanation ..

Thursday morning before market open breaking news:
*DJ First Solar Raised To Buy From Hold By Deutsche Bank - >FSLR
*DJ First Solar Raised To Outperform From Neutral By Baird
POTC vehemently disagrees with Deutsche Bank and Baird's positive outlooks on FSLR.

POTC sent a follow-up e-mail to all subscribers advising to buy 3.5% of your trading portfolio after FSLR rises the day after earnings, that advice turned out to be excellent when we look back, congrats to all and thanks for the e-mails. Many more good calls are ahead of us. Please tell a friend or family member about our GS short call as well as our short BIDU call at $710 above. PFF ratio involves dozens of hours of conference call rewinds, technical, fundamental, and political/policy analysis (where applicable), and often times hidden psychological facts analysts overlook due to heavy workloads or a monolithic buy and hold mindset.

RIMM was a perfect example of analysts "falling in love" with a heavyweight type of stock, the 5th Commandment teaches us to never behave that way. Then we witnessed their frustrations as they raised price targets after RIMM missed the quarter. BIDU was an example in the opposite direction, and POTC was correct in both cases. The 6th Commandment states, "never accept excuses from management", except for Goldman's Ms. Jankowski, most of the analysts went in and stayed bullish on RIMM.

BIDU was an excellent PFF ratio candidate in that many analysts and talking heads missed gaping technical, fundamental, and political facts in our professional blogging opinion (iopbo).

CNBC's, Fast Money program, Tim Seymour recommended selling BIDU ahead of their last earnings report, and we recommended the $460 calls when shares were at $430. Pete Najarian was bullish on RIMM ahead of earnings as well, both lost money and our PFF ratio trade alerts proved correct. Credit to Tim Seymour on RIMM though, he was negative ahead of the Q4 report and remains negative.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Goldman Sachs Related Stories and Conference Call (CC) Notes ...

Breaking Wednesday: *DJ Ex-Paulson Co. Exec Pellegrini Told ACA Paulson Would Take Short Position In Abacus-CNBC-  POTC does not think the..court..of..public..opinion will stabilize..GS.  *SEC..Schapiro:.Goldman Charges
Absolutely Not Politically Motivated
*Goldman.,Lawyer..Has..Been..Contacted By The FSA; 
Not Sure If Tourre Worked On AIG CDOs;
No Current Intent For Blankfein To Address Charges
 April 20, 2010 10:10 ET 13-43ET
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
10: 10 AM EDT 04-20-10
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday signaled he would be willing to break up big financial firms if their size poses a threat to the entire economy.
CC Notes:
GS's General Counsel Greg Palm was the pivot man on the CC. POTC feels he did what most GC's do, offer very few new details, and why should he. Palm did his job, but we don't feel great post CC  since it's not the dollar amount(s) that could be settled, but the paradigm shift from an investing banking Wall Street to a more traditional banking model the Administration seems to be pushing for, as well as reputational damage, the fact there are other choices like Barclays or JPMorgan, or even Bank of America, corporations can take their business elsewhere as the Govt has endless funds to drag and attempt to expose Goldman. GS lost more than $100M investing in ABACUS, clients will support us with good service, always have option to settle, but it now looks like we're heading to trial vs the SEC, most mortgage-backed securities went bust in '06 anyway (so they don't feel it mattered which securities were picked), No idea whether ABACUS knew Paulson was shorting, (Palm did not disclose litigation reserves or other Wells notices when asked); POTC guesstimates there could be more, but GS has no legal basis to disclose new investigations unless their cost is estimated to affect at least 10% of firm capital > $86B.   
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) co-General Counsel Greg Palm said Tuesday that the investment bank would not intentionally mislead clients, and would "be the first" to condemn any employees that went against that credo.

Palm, speaking on Goldman's conference call, said the company would take action to punish deceptive employees. He said "our responsibilities as a financial intermediary require it, and our commitment to integrity and the firm's business principles demand it."
The Securities and Exchange Commission accused the company and one of its executives, Fabrice Tourre, of defrauding investors by peddling a financial product it knew was doomed to fail as the housing market collapsed. Goldman maintains it has done nothing wrong and is fighting the charges.
Tourre is currently out on indefinite leave, but has not been suspended by Goldman.
Palm also said that Goldman lost upwards of $100 million on the transaction being investigated by the government. It previously said it was about $90 million.
In addition, Palm said the case is heading toward a trial at this point, but that there is certainly the possibility that Goldman could settle if both sides come into agreement.
"We don't know how this case is going to unfold at this point, its very early on," he said.
-By Joe Bel Bruno, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2469;
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 20, 2010 08:56 ET (12:56 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 08 56 AM EDT 04-20-10
GS CEO Lloyd Blankfein will and wes a no show on the live 8ET conference call, POTC thinks that's a negative development for longs. Since Lloyd stuck behind Fabrice Tourre, we feel neither man will be with GS by year end. Fabricce is most certainly under extreme pressure to talk to regulators now, and given the seriousness of the charges, fraud, it's possibile he cooperates with the S.E.C.

Securities and Exchange Chairwoman Mary Schapiro's roots go back to President Ronald Reagan, 1988. The vote to press fraud charges was 3-2 (3 democrats/2 republicans), with Schapiro's vote deciding. CNBC reported on how this vote broke down and the fact Schapiro is a democrat, yet they failed to mention her experience. Though this looks like blatant partisanship, alleging fraud without legal merit is reckless behavior and cause for serious backlash, but especially for a person with 22 years experience. Click here to view Mary Schapiro's bio.
Goldman Sachs Conference Call to Announce First Quarter 2010 Results
April 19, 2010
Please note new time:
Conference Call now scheduled for 8:00 am (ET)
NEW YORK, NY, April 19, 2010, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) plans to announce its first quarter 2010 financial results on Tuesday, April 20th in a release that will be issued at approximately 7:00 am (ET). The press release will also be available on the firm’s web site,
A conference call to discuss the firm’s results, outlook and related matters, will now be held 8:00 am (ET). The call will be open to the public.
David Viniar, Chief Financial Officer, will discuss first quarter earnings and related issues, and Greg Palm, Co-General Counsel, will address the recent SEC complaint against Goldman Sachs.
Members of the public who would like to listen to the conference call should dial 1-888-281-7154 (U.S. domestic) and 1-706-679-5627 (international). The number should be dialed at least 10 minutes prior to the start of the conference call. The conference call will also be accessible as an audio webcast through the Investor Relations section of our web site, There is no charge to access the call. For those unable to listen to the live broadcast, a replay will be available on our web site or by dialing 1-800-642-1687
(U.S. domestic) or 1-706-645-9291 (international) passcode number 65384365, beginning approximately two hours after the event.

This press release supersedes the March 25, 2010 announcement.

POTC will be doing the following three trade alerts this Quarter: Mercadolibre (MELI), earnings post after  market close on Thursday, May 6th), First Solar (FSLR's earnings post after close on Wednesday, April 28th), Baidu (BIDU) dates not yet confirmed.
If you're interested in receiving the in depth PFF trade alerts, click the Paypal link in the left margin. POTC appreciates every reader, but special thanks to the ones who signed-up our pay for play services. We are excited by the number of subscribers to date, and we value each one. A single trade alert requires intense motivation, experience, and smart effort. We promise to remain humble and focused with this increased workload. Our mission is to send you well-researched, educational, and most importantly, money making trades. We assure that we'll continue to be firmly rooted in the principles of free-market capitalism as the motivational driver looking-forward to the 2010 mid-term and 2012 Presidential election. Smaller Gov't and lower taxes are the answer to prosperity; bloated Govt only paves the "community" road to a lazy society. Let's Rally! 


PFF ratio involves dozens of hours of conference call rewinds, technical, fundamental, and political/policy analysis, and often times hidden psychological facts WS analysts can overlook due to heavy workloads or a monolithic buy and hold mindset.

RIMM was a perfect example of Wall Street (WS) analysts "falling in love" with a heavyweight stock, the 5th Commandment, then exhibiting frustration by raising price targets after a missed quarter. BIDU was an example in the opposite direction, and POTC was correct in both cases. The 6th Commandment states, "never accept excuses from management", except for Goldman's Ms. Jankowski, most of WS went in and stayed bullish on RIMM.

BIDU was an excellent PFF ratio candidate in that many analysts and talking heads missed  gaping technicalfundamental, and political facts in our professional blogging opinion (iopbo).

CNBC's, Fast Money program, Tim Seymour recommended selling BIDU ahead of earnings as we recommended the $460 calls when shares were at $430. Pete Najarian was bullish on RIMM ahead of earnings last week, both lost money as our alerts proved correct. Credit to Tim Seymour on RIMM, he was negative ahead of the Q4 report.

Friday, April 2, 2010

Post Earnings Facts and Thoughts on Research in Motion (RIMM) ...

There is sanity on Wall Street, though at least 3 upgraded price targets on April 1st, one as high as $117. Yet here's a well known Wall Street firm POTC follows: 

*DJ (Dow Jones) Research In Motion Cut To Sell From Neutral By Goldman Sachs (GS)

Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM, RIM.T) was cut to sell from neutral by Goldman's Simona Jankowski. Simona cut her price target from $73 to $65:
"its products will increasingly lose differentiation as the focus shifts from email, where RIM leads all competitors, to applications, where RIM lags both the iPhone from Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Android, an operating system of Google Inc. (GOOG). With its North American business already in decline, the broker doesn't expect international strength to be enough of an offset."
-By Steve Goldstein, 415-439-6400;

POTC predicts the stock begins closing below $70 shortly, and June expiration is many weeks away; hold the RIMM Puts and enjoy the technical control as share price erodes under the all important 200 day line. We are very satisfied shares broke our way, realizing the last 8 Wall Street firms either Upgraded or Initiated coverage with Buy ratings in the past several weeks:
Mar 26, '10 JP Morgan Upgraded to Overweight
Mar 25, '10 Rodman & Renshaw Initiated Mkt Perform
Mar 19, '10 Wunderlich Initiated Buy
Mar 8, '10 BMO Capital Markets Upgraded to Outperform
Feb 23, '10 Stifel Nicolaus Initiated Buy
Feb 12, '10, RBC Capital Mkts Upgraded to Outperform Top Pick
Feb 12, '10 Wedbush Morgan Initiated Outperform
Feb 1, '10 Standpoint Research Upgraded to Buy

We humbly ask you to tell a friend and family member about our efforts, perhaps only Jim Cramer's team works as smart and hard as POTC, you decide. Are we right all the time, of course not. 'Butt' Capitalist Pig Bob, our Chief Political Correspondent on Facebook, has sent us several positive comments from the pigsty et large, we thank you for them again. Lastly, apologies for butchering RIMM's Co-CEO "Balsillie's" name in the PFF ratio option trade alert, yet he butchered Q4 revenues as well as Q1 guidance in our professional opinion.

POTC appreciates and respects having you as a reader, subscriber, and trader. Our mission is to continue to cut through all the CNBC and Bloomberg talking head hype and educate you whether beginner or expert. We are very open to your general input as well as suggestions on stocks you'd like us to analyze.

A beautiful Spring Easter weekend to every Christian reader in the U.S. and all 90+ countries. Hope has sprung and purple is the symbolic color of the season. Celebrate the promise of eternal life, as many believe our lives involve more than mere physical existence and death. Faith, hope, and the American dream of free-market capitalism are powerful drivers our entire team shares. 

Sincerely, the entire Psychology of the Call team (POTC)

For a more in depth opinion on RIMM post earnings, please see the added commentary in the posting directly below.