Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Option Trade Alert for Research in Motion With Post CC Commentary Added ...

Post Report Analysis:
POTC believes RIMM will miss its Q1 guidance by a country mile, it makes very little sense for them to have guided so high, none. We stand behind our June $65 put recommendation. RIMM missed pre-announced Q4 sales guidance just a couple weeks before Q4 ended ($4.1B - $4.3B), actual Q4 sales were $4.08B. Now we're supposed to believe their forward Q1 global growth assumption that'll drive $4.2B - $4.4B in sales? And WHY is RIMM addressing 2011 when we know they had problems guiding us a few weeks before the end of this last Q4? Here are two conference call blurbs  we find executively funny: *DJ RIM: Tremendous Opportunity For Sustained Growth In FY2011. AND *DJ RIM's Balsillie: "We've Had Competitors Come And Go"
POTC doesn't envision AAPL and GOOG, armed with nearly $25B each to go anywhere. And WHY is Balsillie and his family dumping shares as a very large share buyback is in force? RIMM bought back 12.3M, or $775M worth of stock in the last Q, and that added $.03 to that $1.27 bottom line. Our dilemma is Balsillie selling shares while dismissing AAPL and GOOG as competitors that'll just "go away"? Perhaps Canadian business psychology is different than the U.S.

Co-CEO's pictured on Blackberry are Balsillie and Lazaridis from left to right.

RIMM execs are either misleading analysts or POTC is spending 10 - 18 hours a day researching on a single brain cell, you decide. For a free and ongoing technical opinion on RIMM via e-mail, click here and enjoy!

If interested in receiving our PFF ratio option trade alert for RIMM, send an e-mail with "subscribe" to: Psychologyofthecall@gmail.com

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

SCARY Healthcare Facts from a Subscriber named Carl; CPB Insisted Posting ASAP; Life & Death Issues at Stake ...

As a practicing physician I have major concerns with the health care bill before Congress. I actually have read the bill and am shocked by the brazenness of the government's proposed involvement in the patient-physician relationship. The very idea that the government will dictate and ration patient care is dangerous and certainly not helpful in designing a health care system that works for all. Every physician I work with agrees that we need to fix our health care system, but the proposed bills currently making their way through congress will be a disaster if passed.

I ask you respectfully and as a patriotic American to look at the following troubling lines that I have read in the bill. You cannot possibly believe that these proposals are in the best interests of the country and our fellow citizens.

Page 22 of the HC Bill: Mandates that the Govt will audit books of all employers that self-insure.

Page 30 Sec 123 of HC bill: THERE WILL BE A GOVT COMMITTEE that decides what treatments/benefits you get.

Page 29 lines 4-16 in the HC bill: YOUR HEALTH CARE IS RATIONED.

Page 42 of HC Bill: The Health Choices Commissioner will choose your HC benefits for you. You have no choice.

Page 50 Section 152 in HC bill: HC will be provided to ALL non-US citizens, illegal or otherwise.

Page 58 HC Bill: Govt will have real-time access to individuals' finances & a 'National ID Health card' will be issued! (Papers please)

Page 59 HC Bill lines 21-24: Govt will have direct access to your bank accounts for elective funds transfer. (Time for more cash and carry)

Page 65 Sec 164: Is a payoff subsidized plan for retirees and their families in unions & community organizations like the supposed defunct ACORN.

Page 84 Sec 203 HC bill: Govt mandates ALL benefit packages for private HC plans in the 'Exchange.'

Page 85 Line 7 HC Bill: Specifications of Benefit Levels for Plans -- The Govt will ration your health care.

Page 91 Lines 4-7 HC Bill: Govt mandates linguistic appropriate services. (Translation: illegal aliens.)

Page 95 HC Bill Lines 8-18: The Govt will use groups (i.e. ACORN & Americorps to sign up individuals for Govt HC plan.

Page 85 Line 7 HC Bill: Specifications of Benefit Levels for Plans. (AARP members - your health care WILL be rationed)

Page 102 Lines 12-18 HC Bill: Medicaid eligible individuals will be automatically enrolled in Medicaid. (No choice.)

Page 12 4 lines 24-25 HC: No company can sue GOVT on price fixing. No "judicial review" against Govt monopoly.

Page 127 Lines 1-16 HC Bill: Doctors/ American Medical Association - The Govt will tell YOU what salary you can make.

Page 145 Line 15-17: An Employer MUST auto-enroll employees into public option plan. (NO choice)

Page 126 Lines 22-25: Employers MUST pay for HC for part-time employees ANDtheir families. (Employees shouldn't get excited about this as employers will be forced to reduce its work force, benefits, and wages/salaries to cover such a huge expense.)

Page 149 Lines 16-24: ANY Employer with payroll 401k & above who does not provide public option will pay 8% tax on all payroll! (See the last comment in parenthesis.)

Page 150 Lines 9-13: A business with payroll between $251K & $401K who doesn't provide public option will pay 2-6% tax on all payroll.

Page 167 Lines 18-23: ANY individual who doesn't have acceptable HC according to Govt will be taxed 2.5% of income.

Page 170 Lines 1-3 HC Bill: Any NONRESIDENT Alien is exempt from individual taxes. (Americans will pay.) (Like always)

Page 195 HC Bill: Officers & employees of the GOVT HC Admin.. will have access to ALL Americans' finances and personal records. (I guess so they can 'deduct' their fees)

Page 203 Line 14-15 HC: "The tax imposed under this section shall not be treated as tax." (Yes, it really says that!) ( a fee instead)

Page 239 Line 14-24 HC Bill: Govt will reduce physician services for Medicaid Seniors. (Low-income and the poor are affected.)

Page 241 Line 6-8 HC Bill: Doctors: It doesn't matter what specialty you have trained yourself in -- you will all be paid the same! (Just TRY to tell me that's not Socialism!)

Page 253 Line 10-18: The Govt sets the value of a doctor's time, profession, judgment, etc. (Literally-- the value of humans.)

Page 265 Sec 1131: The Govt mandates and controls productivity for "private" HC industries.

Page 268 Sec 1141: The federal Govt regulates the rental and purchase of power driven wheelchairs.

Page 272 SEC. 1145: TREATMENT OF CERTAIN CANCER HOSPITALS - Cancer patients - welcome to rationing.

Page 280 Sec 1151: The Govt will penalize hospitals for whatever the Govt deems preventable (i.e...re-admissions).

Page 298 Lines 9-11: Doctors: If you treat a patient during initial admission that results in a re-admission -- the Govt will penalize you.

Page 317 L 13-20: PROHIBITION on ownership/investment. (The Govt tells doctors what and how much they can own)

Page 317-318 lines 21-25, 1-3: PROHIBITION on expansion. (The Govt is mandating that hospitals cannot expand.)

Page 321 2-13: Hospitals have the opportunity to apply for exception BUT community input is required. (Just as ACORN)

Page 335 L 16-25 Pg 336-339: The Govt mandates establishment of=2 outcome-based measures. (HC the way they want -- rationing.)

Page 341 Lines 3-9: The Govt has authority to disqualify Medicare Advance Plans, HMOs, etc. (Forcing people into the Govt plan)

Page 354 Sec 1177: The Govt will RESTRICT enrollment of 'special needs people!' Unbelievable!

Page 379 Sec 1191: The Govt creates more bureaucracy via a "Tele-Health Advisory Committee." (Can you say HC by phone?)

Page 425 Lines 4-12: The Govt mandates "Advance-Care Planning Consult." (Think senior citizens end-of-life patients.)

Page 425 Lines 17-19: The Govt will instruct and consult regarding living wills, durable powers of attorney, etc. (And it's mandatory)

Page 425 Lines 22-25, 426 Lines 1-3: The Govt provides an "approved" list of end-of-life resources; guiding you in death. (Also called 'assisted suicide.')(Sounds like Soylent Green to me.)

Page 427 Lines 15-24: The Govt mandates a program for orders on "end-of-life." (The Govt has a say in how your life ends)

Page 429 Lines 1-9: An "advanced-care planning consultant" will be used frequently as a patient's health deteriorates.

Page 429 Lines 10-12: An "advanced care consultation" may include an ORDER for end-of-life plans.. (AN ORDER TO DIE FROM THE GOVERNMENT?!?)

Page 429 Lines 13-25: The GOVT will specify which doctors can write an end-of-life order.. (I wouldn't want to stand before God after getting paid for THAT job!)

Page 430 Lines 11-15: The Govt will decide what level of treatment you will have at end-of-life! (Again -- no choice!)

Page 469: Community-Based Home Medical Services = Non-Profit Organizations.

Page 489 Sec 1308: The Govt will cover marriage and family therapy. (Which means Govt will insert itself into your marriage even.)

Page 494-498: Govt will cover Mental Health Services including defining, creating, and rationing those services.

Senator, I guarantee that I personally will do everything possible to inform patients and my fellow physicians about the dangers of the proposed bills you and your colleagues are debating.

Furthermore, if you vote for a bill that enforces socialized medicine on the country and destroys the doctor-patient relationship, I will do everything in my power to make sure you lose your job in the next election.

Stephen E. Fraser, MD
Dear POTC Reader,
We urge you to use the power that you were born with to circulate these facts to as many friends and family as possible. Only the Power of the People can stop this unethical Bill from passing. 

Friday, March 12, 2010

Nike's Forgiveness of Tiger Woods Could Drive Shares to Screaming New Heights; no Climax in Site ...

Nike's and Tiger's "Just Do It" attitude is paying off handsomely for longs.

NKE's support of Tiger is turning out to be nothing short of genius.
Though POTC has never been a huge fan of Tiger or NKE's products, we know the last few months have made Tiger more human, strengthening NKE's brand recognition.
In the past year, NKE has been as low as $42.11 and today hitting its high at $69+, go figure, as Tiger promises an Augusta National Masters comeback next month in Georgia.
For a free and ongoing technical snapshot of NKE, click here and enjoy. POTC guesstimates shares will trend toward $80 as Tiger returns, and IF Tiger wins Augusta, NKE could hit PAR at $100/share; consider yourself FOREwarned ahead of this sexy tour!
We hope you found the Psychology of this Call interesting, funny, and educational. 

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Effects of Presidente Obama's Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) on FedEx (FDX) and Boeing (BA) ..

DJ FedEx (FDX) CEO: US Pro-Labor Bill Would Halt Air Service Unit Growth

By Josh Mitchell
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--FedEx Corp. (FDX) Chief Executive Fred Smith said Wednesday the company would be forced to pull back investments in its air-service unit if the U.S. Congress passes a bill making it easier to unionize FedEx. 
Smith, in Washington this week to lobby lawmakers, also renewed threats to cancel a multibillion-dollar plan to purchase 15 Boeing Co. (BA) cargo planes if the bill becomes law. The provision, pushed by FedEx rival United Parcel Service Inc., is attached to a House-passed bill to renew the authority of the Federal Aviation Administration.
The Senate is expected to pass its version of the bill as early as this week, and FedEx is fighting the possibility that the final bill would contain the labor provision.
Smith said the provision would introduce the prospect of union strikes at local FedEx facilities and ultimately disrupt FedEx's Express unit. The company would then be forced to stop growing the Express unit and invest elsewhere, he said.
-Josh Mitchell, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-6637
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=4LDqOAk9RAxINqusduiZFw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 10, 2010 14:11 ET (19:11 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 02 11 PM EST 03-10-10

Monday, March 8, 2010

POTC Recommends Long OIL and Short S&P; Chances of Oil Spike Increasing, Retailers and Banks Overbought Above S&P 1,150 ...

San Francisco Fed Issues Productivity Alarm; POTC thinks CA's Budget Deficits will Become a Major Headwind for Equities in '10 ..

=DJ FED WATCH: SF Fed Warns Of 'Overly Optimistic' Job Outlook

By Michael S. Derby
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Strong levels of productivity are calling into question the U.S. economy's ability to generate jobs, a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco warns.
The paper, released Monday, follows Friday's release of the January non-farm payrolls report. The U.S. lost 36,000 jobs and maintained its unemployment rate at 9.7% in the first month of the year. Financial markets greeted the data as a positive, largely because the month's series of major snow storms had been expected lead to big job losses. Hiring's relative resilience in the face of this pressure raised hopes a recovery in growth will soon be attended by rising payrolls.
The San Francisco Fed research raises questions about that outlook. Written by staff economists Mary Daly and Bart Hobijn, the paper looked at the relationship between strong rates of productivity growth and hiring, and found reason to be worried.
"Anecdotal evidence suggests that efforts to contain costs and remain nimble in the face of uncertainty have become a fixture in business strategy," the paper said. "If productivity keeps on growing at an above-average pace, then unemployment forecasts...could continue to be overly optimistic."
The paper explained there's been a breakdown in how economists view the relationship between gross domestic product growth and hiring. At issue is Okun's Law, a forecasting rule used by economists. According to this tool, for every 2% real GDP is below trend, the unemployment rate should rise by 1%.
The economists note that over 2009 real GDP was essentially flat while trend GDP rose by 3%. Under Okun's Law unemployment should have increased by 1.5%, when instead it rose by 3%.
"The surge in labor productivity allowed employers to keep output steady while shedding workers and reducing hours of work in the economy," the paper said. "As such, it allowed unemployment to rise much more than expected given the change in GDP, breaking the normal pattern between the two measures observed over the past 60 years."
The paper does not offer a prediction of what will happen with unemployment, except to say what many economists think will happen may be too optimistic.
Meanwhile, while investors have gotten more upbeat about hiring, officials at the Federal Reserve expect that it will take a long time to get the unemployment rate to fall. They believe businesses, burned by their experiences over the last several years, will be hesitant to hire new workers, and will do so slowly even as demand picks up. That's a big reason why policy makers are so reluctant to raise interest rates.
What's more, the jump in economic growth that happened in the closing months of last year was largely tied to the rebuilding of stocks drawn down during the recession, and as such, the gains were unsustainable. A cooler pace of growth is very likely for 2010.
Still, for many economists, it remains an open question whether firms will be able to continue to push workers in the way they are now. Just as temporary factors made late 2009 GDP better than expected, it's possible firms will have to start hiring to better balance their output against demand.
So while the jobs outlook is challenging just about any way you slice it, it remains an outlook fraught with uncertainty.
(Michael S. Derby, a special writer with Dow Jones Newswires, has covered the Federal Reserve since 2001. He also writes about bond markets and the economy, and can be reached at 212 416 2214 or via email: michael.derby@dowjones.com)
(TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkbackAmericas@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.)
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=xw%2BymPVdlTz6TDL3EDnXgQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 08, 2010 14:12 ET (19:12 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 02 12 PM EST 03-08-10

Friday, March 5, 2010


CRZO will release their earnings on Wednsesday, March 10th

Free a technical snapshot of CRZOclick here.

POTC consults paid and free services in doing the PFF ratio analyses, but the above service is free, easy to understand, and honest. You have nothing to lose but only gain a second technical opinion.

The other aspects of the PFF ratio include many hours (20+) of conference call rewinds, accounting analysis, peer comparisons, as well as pending policy effects with trading psychology sprinkled to establish more powerful entry points.

POTC believes timing volatility and increasing profits proves synergistic when macro elements are diverging ahead of an earnings report, and our option trade alert (put or call) turns out to be right. An example would be broad market selloffs ahead of buying calls and broad market rallies ahead of buying puts.